The Confidential

The ACC Sports Blog

10 Jun 2016
6 Comments

9-Game Schedule Discussions/Confidential’s Proposal

The ACC is reportedly dabbling with the idea of a 9-game schedule again.  The idea is to create more conference property, which ESPN can buy–giving all conference members a boost in revenue.  What does the blogosphere think? And what options are there?

  • Syracuse is not sure whether it would help or hurt.  The Confidential tends to think that any discretion removed from Syracuse A.D.s–who seem convinced that this is still 1959 and Syracuse should play elite programs every year–cannot hurt.
  • Boston College seems in favor of the move, but skeptical that the power brokers would go for it.
  • At least one Clemson source reports it matter-of-factly, with the fan/comments suggesting that this is opposed significantly.   Indeed, for the schools playing SEC opponents, this is a tough sell.

As for the Confidential, the position is somewhat different.  Any plan for the current schools needs to reflect the unique scheduling issues facing Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, and Louisville.  Of course, those schools need to realize that Notre Dame is teetering a bit right now and might be obtainable, while ESPN is also pushing the increased inventory argument pretty hard.  The solution?

The Confidential’s Solution is this.

First, here is your schedule:

  • FSU, Clemson, Ga Tech, Louisville–8 conference games (recognizing the annual game against an SEC foe)
  • Notre Dame–8 conference games (with USC and Navy permanently on schedule, this assures a 9th game against a P5 school… but still room to schedule a Texas school or Stanford, or Air Force or a Big 10 school.  No worries about being stuck having to schedule FCS opponents).
  • The remaining 10 schools play 9 conference games (now all schools have guaranteed 9 games against P5 opponents)

Second, here are your new divisions:

  • None–divisions are over.  Too cumbersome for scheduling purposes.

Third, but, but, but… with unbalanced conference games, how do you decide a league champion?  Simple–based on OVERALL RECORD, rather than conference record.  The top two teams based on OVERALL RECORD play in the ACC Championship Game.  This means that Florida State and Clemson could play in a Championship game if they have the two best records.  Alternatively, it means that any school with a great overall record can get in.  The two teams most in contention for a playoff spot will play each other.

While this lowers the chance of two ACC schools making the playoffs, it increases the chance of at least one school making the playoff.  Is it better for Florida State to beat a 9-3 Coastal team or is it better to take the chance at beating an 11-1 Clemson or 11-1 Notre Dame?  With the Big XII moving to a conference title game, the rematch is guaranteed.  The ACC needs to keep pace to avoid being shut out from time to time.

And who says conference records MUST be more important?  Each conference can decide its champion and championship game members as it sees fit.  Perhaps someday the ACC and SEC will each have 16 schools and can play a complete SEC-ACC challenge in the final week.  If so, all schools can then play the same number of conference games.  But, for now, why not make everyone happy?

Of course, ESPN may “demand” that the ACC add UConn.  If so, then there will be 11 schools outside of the 8-game requirement.  This just means that one school has to join the 8-game ranks every year… rotating, that is one slot every 11 years.  Pretty sure that will not cause a destruction of the model.  Not the end of the world for football, and certainly would not hurt hoops whatsoever.  And if this truly does lead to a profitable ACC Network, it is ALL worth it.

In the meantime, having 10 schools go to 9 conference games, as well as two more Notre Dame games, means a slight increase in inventory.  If UConn is added, even more inventory.  And that is just football alone.  UConn womens’ hoops on the ACC Network?  ACC lacrosse?  ACC baseball?  ACC mens basketball.  You get the drift.  The means to an end are not always pretty.  If this keeps everyone happy, why not?

What do you think of this alternative? 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC Network, Conference News, Conference Realignment, Opinion and tagged , ,
07 Jun 2016

The Confidential’s 2016 Football Over-Under: Louisville

Last year, the Confidential unveiled over-unders for each ACC school.  For Louisville, the over-under was set at 9.5 regular season wins.  Ultimately, Louisville ended up with 7 regular season wins, with the losses to Houston and Pittsburgh being relative “surprises.”  But now it is on to 2016.  The Confidential sets the over-under for Louisville at 7.5 regular season wins.

Here is the schedule for 2016:

  • 9/1/16: Charlotte
  • 9/9/16: @ Syracuse
  • 9/17/16: Florida State
  • 9/24/16: @ Marshall
  • 10/1/16: @ Clemson
  • 10/14/16: Duke
  • 10/22/16: NC State
  • 10/29/16: @ Virginia
  • 11/5/16: @ Boston College
  • 11/12/16: Wake Forest
  • 11/17/16: @ Houston
  • 11/26/16: Kentucky

Very likely wins: Charlotte, Wake Forest, Kentucky

Very likely losses: Florida State, @ Clemson

Verdict: With OOC trips to Marshall and Houston, Louisville has scheduled outside of the P5 conferences, but challenged itself significantly.  Throw in trips to Syracuse, Boston College, and Virginia, and three “very likely home wins” become three very challenging road conference games.  Duke and NC State will not be pushovers from the home slate either.  A sweep of all seven of those games is not impossible, but realistically not likely either.  In fact, it is certainly plausible for two or three of those games to be losses.  All in all, this is looking like a tough year for Louisville compared to the expectations of the fan base.  It is hard to envision wins over Florida State and Clemson.  Even assuming significant success beyond those two games, that does not give much cushion in an improving conference.  The over/under, therefore, is set at 7.5 wins.

What do you think?  Will Louisville go over or under 7.5 regular season wins?

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Opinion, Over/Under, Schedule and tagged , , ,
02 Jun 2016

Conference Expansion News, June 2, 2016

The Big XII is expanding, a rumor states.  The Big XII is NOT expanding, a rumor states.  The Big XII is getting a network, a rumor states.  The Big XII is NOT getting a network, a rumor states.  The Big XII is going to share a network with the ACC, a rumor states.  No it is not.  And so on.  Also, “rumor” also seems to include targeted media leaks by various Big XII schools with unique agendas, so it is not all Twitter-based fodder.  In the end, nobody has any idea what the Big XII will do.

In calmer seas, fans of ACC schools could simply grab a bag of popcorn and watch this inter-conference schizophrenia unfold.  But the landscape of conference realignment remains concerning, as the ACC has its own vulnerabilities and financial gap.  Also, several ACC schools could be in trouble if conference realignment picks up steam.  And even the no-brainer elite schools want to control their future, not be “stuck” in any conference.

Admittedly, the idea of a joint network with the Big XII and ACC has some appeal.  With very little geographic overlap, the two conferences could supply an ESPN channel with plenty of content.  This might also set the table well for various basketball and football “challenges” between the conference, as well as scheduling benefits.  What the ACC provides in population access, the Big XII adds with the State of Texas and slightly more football credibility.  So perhaps such a venture has some potential to be a win-win-win for both conferences and ESPN (who could also direct some content to the SEC network, if necessary).  Moreover, any strengthening of these two conferences would be a stick in the eye to the Big 10, which may still have some value to ESPN folks.

Of course, how to make money is quickly subsumed by how to divide it.  First, Texas still has the Longhorn Network deal.  Second, Notre Dame has its own TV deal.  Third, Notre Dame has its quasi-membership in the ACC.  Fourth, BYU remains looking as a school to do the same.  Fifth, does the Big XII slide up to 12 or 14 or 15 schools to even the conferences up?  And Sixth, how would money get divided anyway–1/3 to Big XII, 1/3 to ACC, 1/3 to ESPN?  Who knows?  But there are far too many proverbial “alpha dogs” in this mix to think it can all get worked out.

In any event, the Big XII may or may not be doing any number of things.  The ACC schools stay quiet, which is some sort of minor testament to the conference’s stability.  Hopefully.  But this realignment issue never seems to die.  So pay attention.

What do you think?  What is the future for the Big XII, ACC, and networks?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC Network, Conference Realignment, ESPN, Opinion and tagged , , , ,
26 May 2016
1 Comment

Once Again, Athletics Disappoints

The Baylor football story has been very interesting over the past several years.  From 1996 onward, the program won the following number of wins: 4, 2, 2, 1, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 5, 4, 3, 4, and 4.  From 2010 forward, the program won 7, 10, 8, 11, 11, and 10 games.  In other words, the Bears won 57 games in the 2010’s after winning 43 in the prior 14 years.  Quite a turnaround.  However, news out of Baylor recently shows that, once again, you simply cannot place faith in athletics–there is routine disappointment.

About a dozen years ago, Dave Bliss lost his job at Baylor due to a murder scandal:

After the murder, one of Bliss’ assistant coaches secretly taped Bliss having a conversation with two players, instructing them to sensationalize stories to police to make it seem that Dennehy was simply another African-American casualty of the drug trade. Bliss resigned from Baylor one day after the August 2003 memorial service for Dennehy.

Now, Baylor has lost the football coach that orchestrated the dramatic turnaround, Art Briles, due to a rape scandal:

In the fall of 2015, Baylor hired Pepper Hamilton to review its past treatment of sexual assault claims. Outside the Lines reported last week that some Baylor officials, including coaches, knew about incidents of sexual assault, domestic violence and other acts of violence involving football players, but most players didn’t miss playing time as punishment.

Thus, Baylor is simply moving from one felony scandal to another in this millennium.  Not exactly something to be proud of.

Of course, those looking at athletics for “pride” are often left holding the bag.  How many icons have denied various transgressions (from steroids to tax evasion), only to later have to admit to same when the evidence mounts?  How many icons have squandered their fortunes on vices and foolishness?  How many icons have left this earth far too early, due to an inability to control themselves off the field with anywhere near the diligence of their athletic discipline?  Lance Armstrong.  The New England Patriots.  Michael Jordan’s odd career.  Even prestigious Duke seems to merely be escaping punishment.

What happened at Baylor (again) is not a surprise, no matter how shocking.  All sports fans treasure their athletics.  And perhaps fans do so a bit too much.  Too many fans would rather win while bending rules than win honorably.  Sadly, all fans get for their fandom is memories and a lighter wallet.  It is the players and coaches that actually do the winning.  Nevertheless, modern sports has figured out a way to make fans feel like every bit the “winners” that the players are.  And with money increasing exponentially in even college sports, the ethics will get blurrier and blurrier.

Baylor is unlikely to get the death penalty, of course.  This is 2016 and there would be far too much litigation for it to be worth it.  But a Penn State type penalty may be looming.  Enough to keep the TV money flowing to the Big XII, but also punish Baylor significantly.  And it will likely be deserved.

For now, it is also prudent to await more details.  The first details are not always the true details.  And the reaction to a scandal these days is not always proportionate to the culpability.  Perhaps Art Briles is a good, ethical man.  Perhaps not.  Time will tell.  The foolishness is beginning with a presumption that coaches and players are good men and waiting for them to inevitably prove us wrong.

Posted by acaffrey in News, Opinion and tagged , ,
17 May 2016

Syracuse’s Carrier Dome to Be Renovated, Fixed Translucent Roof

No real reason to re-invent the wheel here.  Check out the discussion on the Syracuse blog: TNIIAM.  Pretty exciting news for Syracuse sports.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only
11 May 2016
1 Comment

Syracuse A.D. Mark Coyle Already Leaving Position

Welp, that did not take long.  Recent athletic director hire Mark Coyle is already leaving Syracuse for the greener snowier pastures of Minnesota.  Syracuse.com refers to “family reasons,” which would be a very good reason for such a move.

At Minnesota, Coyle will be able to compete in a division with Wisconsin and Nebraska in football–a step down in competition from Florida State and Clemson.  Of course, the history of Gophers’ sports is not exactly riddled with bowl successes and Final Four runs.

In any event, Minnesota is likely flush with all that Big 10 cash, as that conference shows its true colors by putting money ahead of every decision.  And, in reality, it is only that the Big 10 is simply better at converting athletics into cash than most other conferences.  The same hypocritical agenda is in place in the ACC, as well as all other conferences.  Meanwhile, the sheeple of this world continue to believe that Universities have any morally sound agenda whatsoever.  Regardless, Minnesota has money than Syracuse simply does not.

As for Syracuse, they are still a P5 school that can pay more than most other non-P5 schools.  As the Coyle hire was good, there is reason to be confident that the Trustees will make another good hire.  For the most part, other than (a) not getting joined in a conference with Penn State somehow; and (b) hiring Greg Robinson, Syracuse athletic directors have done a very good job over the past 40 or so years.

Posted by acaffrey in News, Opinion, Syracuse correspondent and tagged , , ,
10 May 2016
1 Comment

ACC Rumor Mill–FWIW

Social media gives every moron–including the moron writing this post–an opportunity to have a public voice.  It is up to everyone else to sift the wheat from the chaff and figure out what to believe or not believe.  At the same time, even a broken clock is right twice a day, while that blind squirrel occasionally finds an acorn.  Long story short… when a rumor is spotted, it can be passed along under the “FWIW” tagline.  So here it goes.

From Twitter:

16h16 hours ago

Could have some big news coming from ACC country soon. Should also put to rest any defectors from ACC

16h16 hours ago

ND could be going all in(rumor) and ACCN is going to be announced(rumor but leaning towards fact)

16h16 hours ago

Also ACC could be targeting a school that B12 is talking to for expansion. In hearing Uconn but have heard Cincy from others.

16h16 hours ago

I hate swofford but give him his respect.

16h16 hours ago

ACC leadership is what B12 leadership should be. Quick to act and unified

  16h16 hours ago


5:11 PM – 9 May 2016
· Details

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Looking like ESPN is going to invest their B10 $$ into ACC and B12 to keep those brands strong.

If you are an ACC fan, the trinity of accomplishments would be (a) Notre Dame; (b) an ACC Network; and (c) 16-team stability.  So… it is hard NOT to WANT these rumors to have a bit of truth to them.  Are they true?  Who knows?  Time will tell…

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC Network, Conference News, Conference Realignment and tagged , ,
30 Apr 2016

ACC In the NFL–2016 Draft Update After 3 Rounds

Yesterday, the Confidential recapped Round 1.  There was an error–there were only 31 picks because New England lost its first round pick to whatever latest scandal they were embroiled in.  For whatever reason, having 6 of 31 picks just looks a lot better than 6/32.  Still, it was hard to call Round 1 spectacular with so much Notre Dame influence.  Day 2 did not do much to improve the analysis.  But, upon further review, there is nothing for the ACC to hang its head about.

Here is a list of the ACC players taken in Round 2:

  • Kevin Dodd, DE Clemson (Tennessee Titans)
  • Jaylon Smith, LB Notre Dame (Dallas Cowboys)
  • Nick Martin, OL Notre Dame (Houston Texans)
  • Mackensie Alexander, CB Clemson (Minnesota Vikings)
  • Tyler Boyd, WR Pittsburgh (Cincinnati Bengals)
  • TJ Green, S Clemson (Indianapolis Colts)
  • Roberto Aguayo, K Florida State (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
  • Adam Gotsis, DL Georgia Tech (Denver Broncos)

After 2 rounds, the ACC had 14/63 picks.   That is 22%.  With 5 major conferences, right about where the ACC should be to maintain par.  However, with 4 of those being Notre Dame, and the fair perception that Notre Dame is not really an ACC football school, that drops things to 10/63, or 16%.  Still, that is not horrible given that 8 of those 63 draftees were not from P5 schools.  10 out of the 55 P5 players drafted works out to 18%, maybe 1 draftee short of where the ACC “should be.”  Certainly not worthy of concern.

Here is a list of the ACC players taken in Round 3:

  • Keivarae Russell, CB, Notre Dame (Kansas City Chiefs)
  • Joe Thuney, OG, NC State (New England Patriots)
  • Kendall Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech (Washington Redskins)
  • C.J. Prosise, RB, Notre Dame (Seattle Seahawks)
  • Jacoby Brissett, QB, NC State (New England Patriots)
  • Justin Simmons, S, Boston College (Denver Broncos)

Of the 98 players drafted in the first three rounds, 20 were from the ACC (including Notre Dame).  That works out to 20.4%.  If you exclude Notre Dame’s impressive six draftees, that drops things down to 14.3%, roughly 1 in 7 draftees being from ACC schools.

The Confidential is of the opinion that the ACC should strive to supply approximately 17% of the draftees each year.  That corresponds to 1/6th of the draftees, with 1/6th also apportioned for the SEC, Big 10, Pac 12, Big 12, and “other.”  As for the “other,” the NFL certainly does not shy away from taking players with potential from outside the P5.  In fact, 15 of the 98 players drafted through 3 rounds were from schools outside the P5.

Here are the “by conference” totals:

  1. Big 10: 22
  2. SEC: 22
  3. ACC: 20 (including Notre Dame)
  4. Other: 15
  5. ACC: 14 (excluding Notre Dame)
  6. Pac 12: 10
  7. Big XII: 9

If you do not include Notre Dame as an ACC school, even an unspectular first three round still has the ACC well ahead of the Pac 12 and Big XII for producing players.  Even adjusted for fewer teams, the Pac 12 and Big XII still fall short of meeting the 1 draftee per school ratio that the ACC meets.  If you include Notre Dame, then the ACC bumps right up behind the Big 10 and the SEC.

The best way to sum up the first three rounds from an ACC perspective is to state that it has been an “OK” draft.  The draft has done nothing to suggest that the ACC is not worthy of every respect as a football conference.  Regardless of whether you count Notre Dame as an ACC school, the ACC is still a solid “third” in producing NFL talent.

Posted by acaffrey in Draft, Football, Opinion and tagged , , ,
29 Apr 2016

NFL Draft Update: ACC Players Round 1

With Round 1 of the NFL Draft complete, here is a look at which ACC schools had players drafted and where they went:

  • With the 5th overall pick, the Jacksonville Jaguars selected FSU cornerback, Jalen Ramsey.
  • With the 6th overall pick, the Baltimore Ravens selected Notre Dame tackle, Ronnie Stanley.
  • With the 12th overall pick, the New Orleans Saints selected Louisville defensive tackle, Sheldon Rankins.
  • With the 19th overall pick, the Buffalo Bills selected Clemson defensive end, Shaq Lawson.
  • With the 21st overall pick, the Houston Texans selected Notre Dame wide receiver, Will Fuller
  • With the 25th overall pick, the Pittsburgh Steelers selected Miami cornerback, Artie Burns

Thus, 4/32 picks are from ACC schools… 6/32 if you include Notre Dame (as we do).   By comparison, the SEC had 8 players drafted, while Ohio State alone had five players drafted in the first round.  Not a great first day, but there are six more rounds for the ACC to show itself as a top conference for producing NFL talent.

Among the key ACC Players still left to be drafted are:

  • QBs: Jacoby Brissett, NC State
  • RBs: CJ Prosise, Notre Dame; Shaquille Powell, Duke; Shad Thornton, NC State
  • WRs/TEs: Tyler Boyd, Pitt
  • Offensive Line: Nick Martin, Notre Dame; Joe Thuney, NC State; Landon Turner, North Carolina
  • Defensive Line: Kevin Dodd, Clemson; Sheldon Day, Notre Dame; Ron Thompson, Syracuse
  • Linebackers: BJ Goodson, Clemson;
  • Secondary: Mackensie Alexander, Clemson; TJ Green, Clemson; Kendall Fuller, Virginia Tech, Jeremy Cash, Duke
  • Special Teams/Other: Roberto Aguayo (K), FSU;

It will be interesting to see if and when each of these players gets drafted.

 

Posted by acaffrey in Draft, Football and tagged , , ,
20 Apr 2016
1 Comment

Pearl Washington Passes Away at 52

Sadly, Dwayne “Pearl” Washington has passed away.  As a Syracuse Orange fan from birth and one who remembers the early days of Louie and Bouie, there is no doubt that The Pearl was the most important player in converting Syracuse from an interesting regional team to a national power.  Hey, just ask Jim Boeheim.  Although he was from New York City, only several hours from campus, Pearl was a major recruit and promised to bring great things to Syracuse before leaving.

Indeed, he was interviewed during halftime of a Syracuse game and indicated as much.  It did not take long to fulfill that promise:

Yes, one of the greatest moments in Syracuse basketball history.  Unreal at the time.  Unreal today.

In today’s world, words can be meaningless.  It can be said that Pearl had an amazing crossover.  But you have seen a few other ridiculous ball-handlers since Pearl too.  It can be said that Pearl was one of the few players in college basketball who could take on Georgetown and Patrick Ewing–and you would be right.  But, for many, Ewing is a distant memory too–a good to great NBA player, but forgetting how dominant he was in college.

If only his skill could be described.  For any generation, and certainly today’s generation, it would be better to just give you a video.  And ask yourself if you can find players doing these Pearl things BEFORE did them.  Good luck with that.  Anyway, enjoy the video:

As you can see, amazing things with the basketball.  And that does not do justice to his skill set and demonstration of it game after game.  There were few games where Pearl was not dominant–if not scoring, then by dishing the ball.  He certainly made his teammates better– a great compliment.

Pearl will always be remembered by Syracuse fans that were old enough to see him live.  He will be remembered as a “one of a kind.”  He will also be remembered as a great ambassador for the program after his career ended.  Really, it is hard to come up with too many negatives about Pearl.  He was a legend, more than worthy of being called “The Pearl.”

Nationally, he was a player that fueled the Syracuse-Georgetown rivalry that helped popularize the Big East and even ESPN.  We might not have ESPN2, much less ESPN3, without those early catalysts from the Big East.  Not a bad legacy.  Although his NBA career was surprisingly underwhelming, Pearl is… sadly, was… one of those great college legends that simply never made it professionally (just like most Heisman Trophy winning quarterbacks, in fact).

As you get older, you will find that the age where you say “that man was too young to die” gets increasingly older.  But perhaps there is little dispute that 52 is too young to die.  And it certainly is.  But Pearl used but a few of those 52 years to create eons worth of memories.

On behalf of all college basketball fans, and certainly Syracuse fans, the passing of Dwayne “Pearl” Washington is a reason to mourn.  And remember.

Posted by acaffrey in News, Syracuse correspondent and tagged , , , ,

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