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Heavily Guarded

Today marks a key moment for the University of Louisville Men’s Basketball team as the UNC Tarheels invade the Yum! Center riding a 6 game winning streak and lots of positive mojo. It was only a few weeks ago that the Cards managed to choke away a convincing 13 point lead fairly late in the second half in Chapel Hill. Not taking anything away from UNC and the freakishly impressive bucket made by Marcus Paige in that game (did it really go in??), but the  Cards were able to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory on that day by not finding ways to score.  Silver lining: That brings me to the discussion of how UofL’s guard play has continued to improve each game since the debacle in the Dean Dome.  Terry Rozier has continued to play the role of hero for the Cards with his clutch offensive prowess and smothering defense. The same can be said for Senior guard Chris Jones, who UofL fans are cautiously optimistic in believing that just maybe he has left his shooting slump in the dust and, better yet, started to finally buy in to what Rick Pitino has preached to him since this season started: UofL is a better team when he passes first and shoots second.

As was the case two weeks ago, Montrezl Harrell gets another opportunity today to justify his pre-season All-American tab by proving he can lead his team in a big game. And today’s game is, well, really big. Very few coaches this side of John Calapari have experienced more success in recent years against Rick Pitino than Roy Williams.  And dad gummit, Cardinal fans are more than ready to see Pitino remove this small monkey off his back with a win today in front a White Out crowd of 22K fans.

The Cardinals have played their best basketball away from home and that trend must be reversed pronto starting today, especially with home tilts against Notre Dame and Virginia still on the Yum! Center docket. Will the Cards play guarded and uptight? Will they break out of their shell and finally have a good shooting game from the perimeter at home? Will UofL’s role players step up and find ways to alleviate the pressure off Louisville’s “Big 3”?  These are all important questions that could vault UofL forward with lots of momentum.

The stage is set for a good one today. National powers, Hall of Fame coaches, crazy atmosphere and, hopefully, a tribute to the recent passing of the famous white squirrel from UofL’s Belknap Campus.

Neck out prediction: Cards 70 Heels 65

Til next time..,

Confidential Correspondents’ Basketball Poll: January 27, 2015

The Confidential routinely polls its correspondents to rank the top ACC basketball teams.  Here is a quick look at the current top 10:

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Thoughts on Syracuse – North Carolina

If you read the final score, you will see that North Carolina won comfortably over Syracuse last night.  If you watched the game, you saw that it was anything but comfortable, as Syracuse lead for large parts of the game and played quite well.  To be sure, North Carolina was careless with the ball–but that is not uncommon for teams that rarely see the aggressive 2-3 zone.  In many ways, this game was a positive for Syracuse, as it showed it can fully compete with top 15 teams.  I know I am more positive than before.  Still… a few nagging things to note.

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O Captain, My Captain!

(Ed Note: This was supposed to be published yesterday).  Now that the University of Louisville Men’s Basketball team has had time to heal the gashing wounds laid down by the Duke Blue Devils from a week ago (Jahlil Okafor just scored again by the way), we look to see how they bounce back on Sunday when they invade the home of the PITT Panthers and the greatest slicked back coaching hairstyle this side of Steve Lavin.  It’s been an eerily quiet week from the Cards, with one exception.

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Syracuse and Rafael Addison

A caveat: Rafael Addison was my favorite player growing up.  So when Nunes Magician started discussing what off-the-radar player deserved to have his Syracuse jersey retired, I rather easily came to the defense of #12.  As it has, sadly, been nearly 30 years since Addison played, few current fans truly remember him.  But I thought he deserved some recognition.

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Syracuse Orange On Trial: A 3 Game Case Study

Opening Statement: this season is rustling a few Orange fan feathers. You might describe Syracuse’s overall play somewhere between panic-inducing, gut wrenching and dare I say exciting. Jim Boeheim’s troops currently tout a 14-5 overall record and are 5-1 in ACC play. That fact bears repeating but for the sake of redundancy, I’ll let the readers make that call. For many college basketball teams that record would be a season to tell their friends about. Throw in the fact that Syracuse has just one starting senior in Rakeem Christmas (you may have heard of him) and things might start to take form. So why is it some Syracuse fans are ready to call their doctor for a refill on their anxiety medication? Could it be that we are a spoiled fan base not used to losing a game before January? Or is it the impending doom expected when the NCAA announces its ruling in the investigation of Syracuse? While each of those questions may hold validity, I suggest the answer can be found quite easily. Look no further than the last 3 games on the schedule, two of which are wins! Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, I present to you the facts in the case of why Syracuse fans that have one foot on the ledge should take a giant step back to safer ground.

Exhibit A: a game dubbed “Wake Forest: The Greek Tragedy That Almost Was”. The Demon Deacons showed up to the Dome with a 9-8 record, two losses coming by the swords of Louisville and Duke. They were well known for employing a fast paced offense and would certainly look to continue that. Syracuse meanwhile was riding a 6 game win streak. Rakeem Christmas was morphing from seedling to fully grown Navel Orange while Trevor Cooney was busy finding his 3 point shot. After the few aforementioned facts presented, for the sake of argument put yourself in a Syracuse fan frame of mind. Now sprinkle in a little math and science of the ACC conference as we know it. After a few pre-game beers, this would surely lead you explaining to your buddy why this game should be a 10 point Orange victory. But you’ve forgotten one thing. Wake Forest rolled in on their Trojan horse and deployed Konstantinos Mitoglou. His 26 point performance helped Wake push the game into overtime. Not to be outdone on his home court Rakeem Christmas put up a career high 35 points and carried Syracuse to a narrow 86-83 victory. Honorable mention to Trevor Cooney with 21 points of his own. Overtime against 1-3 ACC opponent just isn’t acceptable. Albeit thankful for a win, Syracuse fans instantly begin experiencing symptoms of slight chest pains and anxiety.

Exhibit B: Littlejohn Coliseum for a late Saturday afternoon date with the Clemson Tigers. As newcomers last season, Syracuse established who they thought the real Orange around the ACC was with a 57-44 home victory. Fast forward to January 17th 2015. Subtract Tyler Ennis and Jerami Grant and you have an inexperienced Syracuse team in hostile territory. Clemson came in sporting a nice overtime win against a ranked Arkansas team earlier in the season but had losses to teams like Winthrop and Rutgers. If Syracuse fans saw this and were like myself, they might have been slightly bewildered. Despite the inexperience and a road game in the ACC, fans still expected a win. Instead, Syracuse hardly showed up. Clemson began the 1st half hotter than breakfast at a Waffle House. At the under 8 timeout, it was Clemson 21 and Rakeem Christmas 9. Halftime saw the game seemingly already won, 39-18 in favor of the Tigers. I’d bet a shot of Jameson that at this point there was a Syracuse fan watching that had already shut the game off in disgust. Clemson finished with 3 starters in double figures and shot 40% from the 3 point line. For Syracuse, the only bright spot was Rakeem Christmas again. I can’t recall a game where Trevor Cooney played worse. He went 0-5 from downtown and had just 5 points, all coming from the free throw line. Usually sound guard Michael Gbinije struggled. The Orange fell 66-53 and I sensed symptoms stemming from the Wake Forest game were being exacerbated. But a young team on the road played a poor game. They lost for the first time in ACC play. Regardless of the opponent and a few acceptable excuses for a loss, some fans had their hands on the phone ready to call to a physician.

Exhibit C: Let’s examine the most recent game against Boston College. The Golden Eagles entered the Dome at 8-8, without a single ACC Conference win. That fact might have had a few fans and perhaps players alike looking past BC. However, flashback to last year when this BC team came in and unraveled Syracuse’s historic 25-0 start (I still blame the jerseys that were worn that night). Back to present time with many of its players returning, BC came in with something to prove. They could knock off a quality opponent on the road for its first conference win. A recipe for disaster can be seen fairly easily. Meanwhile, Syracuse was looking to avoid a second two game losing streak of its season. There was no way Syracuse could lose. Right? Despite a hot BC start, Syracuse took a 35-17 lead into half. Lacking some depth down low due to a Chris McCollough injury, the team had to avoid foul trouble. In true Murphys Law fashion that I believe is contagious to Syracuse, Rakeem Christmas picked up 4 fouls by the 16 minute mark in the 2nd half. Forced to play without him for most of the 2nd half, Michael Gbinije stepped up big time and ultimately saved the Orange a second straight humiliation. The game ended 69-61 but the score fool wasn’t fooling anybody that watched. Syracuse came gut-wrenchingly close to blowing a late 13 point lead with anything but clutch FT shooting and a couple late turnovers. Fans watched what should have been a blowout turn into a close victory against a team without a conference win. And therein lies precisely my point. The team found a way to overcome adversity and win. It got help from a mostly reliable guard in Michael Gbinije. The score doesn’t matter when a team wins. Sports are beautiful like that. But it was too late for some. The calls were being made and prescriptions were being ordered. Diagnosis: Syracuse induced panic, anxiety and insomnia.

Closing argument: we see reasons why there is panic among the fan base. All of which can be argued as valid concerns. The team struggled to close out a couple sub par ACC opponents. While there are the almost automatic double-doubles coming from Rakeem Christmas, players like Trevor Cooney, Michael Gbinije and Tyler Roberson are grasping for consistent performances in the last 3 games. Late game free throw shooting and carelessness are rearing their ugly heads. But aside from the struggle to find a consistent good team performance, the fact remains that Syracuse has won two of its last three. How some fans can still be pressing the panic button is slightly maddening to me. Most likely it’s the ACC schedule that lies before us but as we’ve seen with games like NC State beating Duke, there are never any cupcakes in the ACC. I believe Syracuse fans need to slow down and look at the facts. The team has 14 wins and is 5-1 in conference play. They’re dealing with the loss of a starting freshman that before injury was a probable one and done and still winning without him. But most importantly, it’s time to remind themselves that no matter how ugly, a win is still a win. To quote BC head coach Jim Christian, “they’re 5-1, guys. I wish I was struggling like that.”

ACC Basketball Confidential Roundtable: January 22, 2015

Every week, the Confidential contributors get together during football and basketball seasons to provide a summary of their school, the ACC, and other topics of note.  Here is this week’s thoughts on hoops:

1.  How did your school look this past week–any surprises or disappointments?  Are you looking forward to anything regarding your school?

Brian (FSU): Well the fact FSU actually won on the road to a half decent Clemson team was a surprise.  Although, I was disappointed we lost at home to NCSU. I thought NCSU was one of the games against a good team that FSU could steal at home. In looking at FSU’s likely win total, I think I see 4 to 5 wins the rest of the year. I have stated that 16 wins would be surprising, and I doubt FSU can get there this year.

Harrison (NC State): While disappointing, the UNC loss was expected. It was too much to expect a young team to take down both of the local powerhouses. Honestly, I’m just happy that the game was (somewhat) close the entire time. A few days later, NC State found itself playing a road game without their point guard. Cat Barber sat out due to a death in the family. The team was able to rally around it however and managed to win fairly easily. This is refreshing for fans of a team that is known for picking up bad losses in conference play.

Anthony (Syracuse): The loss to Clemson was obviously a disappointment, but getting back to the win column against Boston College without a dominating performance by Rakeem Christmas was a pleasant surprise.
2.  What surprised you or disappointed you with the ACC?
Brian (FSU): I was surprised that Duke was able to bounce back after 2 surprising losses, and to do it by 11 points at Louisville is even more surprising. I am starting to be disappointed with Louisville.  The big boys of the ACC are giving them some issues.  I see at least another 2 to 3 losses this year for them, and maybe more.
Harrison (NC State): January is over and we still aren’t sure what to make of Syracuse. We see them play great some games and then they go lose by 13 to Clemson (in the Carrier Dome no less). They really are becoming the team that won’t die. Every time we try to write them off as a bad team, they win some more ACC games. It’s safe to say that with Christmas in the lineup, this could be a dangerous team in the ACC Tournament.
Anthony (Syracuse): Virginia Tech at 0-4 is a bit surprising.  I thought Buzz Williams would have pulled out a win by now.
3.  Anything noteworthy outside of the ACC?
Brian (FSU): Well my Kentucky watch continues. Since we spoke last they whooped up on Bama, and struggled at home against the Commodores.  Kentucky is vulnerable and beatable… I am still predicting they lose on February 10th at LSU. I am calling my shot!

Harrison (NC State): Ole Miss has had a very weird season to say the least. They opened the season with a loss to Charleston Southern, but then beat Creighton. They lost to Dayton, but then take Kentucky to overtime. This week, the Rebels beat another top-25 team (Arkansas) but then lost unranked Georgia. If you want to have some fun with the transitive property, look no further than this team.

Anthony (Syracuse): How about Creighton at 0-7 in the Big East?  Tulane with a 4-3 conference record in the AAC, with UConn  sitting way back at 2-2.  Texas in the middle of the pack in the Big 12.  Speaking of Texas, is there any greater example of money not guaranteeing success in the revenue sports?
WHAT DO YOU THINK?  LET US KNOW…

Will The Cards Fly South From Here?

First off, hello to all the subscribers to ACC Confidential.  My name is Kevin Wright and I will be the new and second contributor to this blog representing the University of Louisville.  With that said, I will get right to the point with my first blog entry……..

After attending the UofL/Duke tilt this past Saturday at the Yum Center, my biggest fears as a long-time die hard Cardinal fan became a reality: the Cards may have deficiencies this season that cannot be overcome by X’s and O’s or the good ole post game “players only” locker room meeting.  The fact is, this UofL basketball team simply labors to put the ball in the basket.  Back in December when UofL played in-state rival Kentucky, one was left to wonder if the Cardinal’s abysmal shooting performance that day was due to UK’s astounding length and defensive prowess.  Not to take anything away from Kentucky, but after watching the Cards miss numerous well manufactured open mid-range jumpers and attempts from beyond the arc on Saturday (mind you against a make shift zone defense orchestrated by Duke and Coach K), the hard truth hit home.

Through the years Rick Pitino has built his offensive systems around multi-dimensional players who could score in all facets of the game.  I don’t need to remind other UofL fans of the likes of former players such as Luke Hancock, Russ Smith, Kyle Kuric, Taquan Dean and so on……all reliable perimeter players who consistently made their teammates better by making open shots when they were afforded to them.  This year’s Rick Pitino team, his 14th since coming back to The Bluegrass State, is unique in the fact that there are no real true shooters on the roster.  One could argue that Terry Rozier is a good perimeter player, and while I could agree with such an assertion I would not list that as his biggest offensive strength.  Other perimeter players on the Cardinal roster have proven to be unreliable, erratic and at times downright bad.  The same can be said for Louisville’s lineup of frontcourt players which is hampered by a lack of offensive skill and playing experience.

Luckily for the Cards they have a some time to lick their wounds following a convincing loss to the hands of the Blue Devils.  Upon return, however, will they be able to continue to win games while finding ways of off setting their lock of scoring by being meticulous in all other facets?  March has been a kind and rewarding month for Louisville basketball teams in the past several years.  Getting to the end of the regular season finish line this season may be more taxing and trivial for this current groups of players.  The ACC needs UofL to thrive in the same vein that the Cards needs their conference mates to help maintain conference strength.

Hopefully UofL fans will see their Cards rising and flying high in the weeks to come.

ACC Basketball Confidential Roundtable: January 15, 2015

As we have done with football, the Confidential plans to get some or all of the Confidential contributors together weekly during the basketball season to provide a summary of their school, the ACC, and other topics of note.

1.  How did your school look this past week–any surprises or disappointments?  Are you looking forward to anything regarding your school?

Brian (FSU): Not really surprised by how my Noles looked on the court. Syracuse handled FSU at home… as expected. Syracuse is a solid team if not outright very good, and FSU is just not that good. No surprises from FSU. I guess I am disappointed in the loss, but if you believe you must have high expectations to be disappointed by a loss, then I am not even disappointed. I still wonder if FSU can get to 16 wins this year… right now they sit at 9 total. I bet they get to maybe 15… probably 14. 

Harrison (NC State): The Virginia loss was somewhat expected. There was a little hope in the 1st half as State jumped out to an early lead, but it vanished in the 2nd half as the Cavaliers took control of the game. That loss made the Duke win even sweeter.  In case you somehow missed it, NC State was able to take down Duke this week. There’s not much to say other than it was a near perfect effort from the Wolfpack. I would not have picked Duke to be the win between UVA, Duke, and UNC. Tonight, they have the chance to do the impossible and finish 2-1 in that stretch. The team is hot and I think fans are optimistic.

Len K (Louisville): The Cards are still struggling with their offense but are showing signs of improvement. PG Chris Jones is finally scoring and passing the ball turning in his best performances of this season the last few games. They are still looking for a consistent answer at the 5 position. Duke comes to town this Saturday so I am looking forward to seeing if they continue to show improvement on the offensive end. Wayne Blackshear has a tendency to disappear in big games, will he show up this weekend?

 Anthony (Syracuse): Nothing was more disappointing than the injury to Chris McCullough.  Count me in the group that thinks that this could be a very good thing for him–he needs more work.  Maybe he will enter the draft, but showing up every night and being hit or miss probably was not helping his cause.  Very proud of the team holding serve and beating the teams it is supposed to beat.  The ACC is tough top to bottom.  No bad wins.
2.  What surprised you or disappointed you with the ACC?
Brian (FSU):  Duke getting handled by two un-ranked teams. Yes one is a rival. Yes they are both good teams. But to be beat by double digits in back to back games… that is hardly the sign of an elite team.  I think the top of the ACC is suddenly wide open.
Harrison (NC State): I’ll steer clear of NC State’s win and talk about UNC and Louisville. In what was a very entertaining game, UNC defeated the Cardinals with some late game heroics. I’m still not really sure what to think of the Tar Heels as they have had some of bigger ups and downs in the conference. Meanwhile, Louisville is still one of the best teams in the country with its only other loss coming at Kentucky. Both teams look dangerous coming down the stretch.
Len K (Louisville): The ACC has seen its fair share of upsets this season, will they continue? Notre Dame, NC State, Syracuse & Miami are all playing great ball right now & any one of them can break into the top four of the ACC. The bottom half of the conference is looking strong as well. Manning is making an immediate impact at Wake Forest. Its going to be a fun season.
Anthony (Syracuse): How about how good the bottom of the ACC is?  There are no pushovers.  Each team may be good enough for some post-season tourney.  It cannot happen, as they will beat up on each other.  But that has been a surprising development.
3.  Anything noteworthy outside of the ACC?
Brian (FSU): Kentucky had yet another close call against A&M.  I think Kentucky will drop a game, it is just a matter of when.  Of course as I say this statement Kentucky is utterly destroying Missouri by almost 50 points. If Kentucky loses in the regular season it will be either this Saturday, January 24th, Feb 7th, Feb 10th, Feb 28th, or March 3rd.

 If I had to lay money down it will be on Feb 10th against LSU on the road. The reason is on the 7th they will be at UF, who I think will fight Kentucky, but I see the Wildcats pulling it out. Then only 3 days later Kentucky goes to LSU.  In terms of offense, rebounds, passing the ball, and efficiency LSU is actually very similar to Kentucky.  In fact, LSU has a better field goal %. I think if a tired Kentucky team goes to LSU, they might get upset. 

Harrison (NC State): Former ACC member Maryland continues to be look impressive as they have taken an early lead in the B1G. I know that many people, myself included, didn’t see Maryland as a top 15 team especially after their sub-par finish in the ACC last year.  The Big 12 is surprisingly competitive this year in basketball with 7 teams in this week’s top 25. We all knew about Kansas and the other usuals, but teams like Oklahoma State and West Virginia have seemingly come out of nowhere.

Len K (Louisville): I’m going to step away from basketball here this week. First I want to congratulate Cards volleyball player Katie George for being crowned Miss Kentucky recently. Secondly lets talk about the first football playoffs. Ohio St winning the championship proves that there is parity in college football. The difference between the power 5 compasses isn’t that great. It also shows that the B1G is stil a solid Football Conference. You can also make a strong argument now of how the BCS system was flawed with #4 winning the title.
Anthony (Syracuse): Rutgers beating Wisconsin. 
WHAT DO YOU THINK?  LET US KNOW…

Confidential Correspondents’ Basketball Poll: January 13, 2015

The Confidential routinely polls its correspondents to rank the top ACC basketball teams.  Here is a quick look at the current top 10:

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