The Confidential

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Archive for the tag “2016”

The Confidential’s 2016 Football Over-Under: Boston College

Last year, the Confidential unveiled over-unders for each ACC school.  For Boston College, the over-under was set at 7.5 regular season wins.  Ultimately, B.C. started out by out-scoring its opponents 100-3, and held tight with Florida State until suffering a QB injury.  After beating Northern Illinois, the Eagles would lose out.  But now it is on to 2016.  The Confidential sets the over-under for Boston College at 5.5 regular season wins.

Here is the schedule for 2016, courtesy of a great college football website:

9/3 Sat vs. *Georgia Tech
9/10 Sat vs. Massachusetts @ Foxboro, MA
9/17 Sat @ *Virginia Tech
9/24 Sat vs. Wagner
10/1 Sat vs. Buffalo
10/7 Fri vs. *Clemson
10/22 Sat vs. *Syracuse
10/29 Sat @ *North Carolina State
11/5 Sat vs. *Louisville
11/11 Fri @ *Florida State
11/19 Sat vs. Connecticut
11/26 Sat @ *Wake Forest

Very likely wins: UMass, Wagner, Buffalo, UConn (wow, weak OOC schedule this year for the Eagles)

Very likely losses: FSU, Clemson, @ Virginia Tech

Verdict: Unlike Syracuse, Boston College appears to be eschewing the over-scheduling curse.  Gone is Southern Cal–enter a Mac-tastic opponent in Buffalo, local foes UConn and UMass, and an FCS-tilt against Wagner.  This is a legitimate chance at 4 wins.  The conference slate it typically tough, with trips to Wake Forest and NC State making things a challenge.  But if B.C. can upset Georgia Tech week one at home, the Eagles will be well-positioned to go 2-6 in conference, yet find themselves a bowl bid even without a single upset.  This is what a rebuilding program MUST DO to regain relevance.  The Confidential sets the over-under at 5.5 wins.

What do you think?  Will BC go over or under 5.5 regular season wins?

The Confidential’s 2016 Football Over-Under: Miami

Last year, the Confidential unveiled over-unders for each ACC school.  For Miami, the over-under was set at 6.5 regular season wins.  Ultimately, Miami ended up with 8 regular season wins.  But now it is on to 2016.  The Confidential sets the over-under for Miami at 8.5 regular season wins.

Here is the schedule for 2016, courtesy of a great college football website:

9/3 Sat vs. Florida A&M
9/10 Sat vs. Florida Atlantic
9/17 Sat @ Appalachian State
10/1 Sat @ *Georgia Tech
10/8 Sat vs. *Florida State
10/15 Sat vs. *North Carolina
10/20 Thu @ *Virginia Tech
10/29 Sat @ Notre Dame
11/5 Sat vs. *Pittsburgh
11/12 Sat @ *Virginia
11/19 Sat @ *North Carolina State
11/26 Sat vs. *Duke

Very likely wins: Florida Atlantic, @ App State

Very likely losses: Notre Dame, Florida State

Verdict: Miami had a good season last year relative to outsider expectations, but it was not enough to save Al Golden’s job.  Moreover, the team seemed to improve without him.  Enter the Mark Richt era.  Some new coaches immediately improve teams, others take a season to adjust.  Who knows with Miami?  It is difficult to see many “very likely wins,” as even a trip to Appalachian State can be dangerous.  The lighter conference foes on the schedule (Virginia, NC State, Georgia Tech) are all road games.  But there is not a game on the schedule that cannot be won–even FSU and Notre Dame–either.  This becomes a crap shoot.  Improvement is expected, but it might not yet result in more wins.  Or it might.  The Confidential goes with an over-under of 8.5 regular season wins.

What do you think?  Will Pitt go over or under 8.5 regular season wins?

NBA Draft Recap

The Confidential notes that the ACC was well-represented in last week’s NBA draft.  Indeed, the following ACC players were drafted:

  • Duke’s Brandon Ingram went #2 to the Lakers
  • Florida State’s Malik Beasley went #19 to the Nuggets
  • Syracuse’s Malachi Richardson went #22 to the Hornets
  • North Carolina’s Brice Johnson went #25 to the Clippers
  • Virginia’s Malcolm Brogdon went #36 to the Bucks
  • Louisville’s Chinanu Onuaku went #37 to the Rockets
  • Notre Dame’s Demetrius Jackson went #45 to the Celtics
  • Syracuse’s Michael Gbinije went #49 to the Pistons
  • North Carolina’s Marcus Paige went #55 to the Nets

Thus, 9 of the 60 draftees were ACC products.  Of course, with 15 foreign players drafted, 9 of 45 college players drafted were from the ACC.  This is a solid 20%.  With college basketball being so much deeper than college football, this is an outstanding percentage for any conference.

 

The Confidential’s 2016 Football Over-Under: Syracuse

Last year, the Confidential unveiled over-unders for each ACC school.  For Syracuse, the over-under was set at 5.5 regular season wins.  Ultimately, the Orange fell short of that, resulting in a coaching change.  This year, there is optimism with a new coaching staff and scheme–but concern regarding the defense and the ordinarily challenging OOC schedule.  The Confidential sets the over-under for Syracuse at 4.5 regular season wins.

Here is the schedule for 2016:

  • 9/2/16: Colgate
  • 9/9/16: Louisville
  • 9/17/16: South Florida
  • 9/24/16: @ UConn
  • 10/1/16: Notre Dame (neutral site)
  • 10/8/16: @ Wake Forest
  • 10/15/16: Virginia Tech
  • 10/22/16: @ Boston College
  • 11/5/16: @ Clemson
  • 11/12/16: NC State
  • 11/19/16: Florida State
  • 11/26/16: @ Pitt

Very likely wins: Colgate, UConn

Very likely losses: Notre Dame, Clemson, Florida State, Pitt

Verdict: Syracuse has struggled to beat Pitt on the road (since 2001) and is a long shot to beat Notre Dame, Clemson, or Florida State.  Still, it is not hard to believe that the team cannot find a few wins among USF, Wake Forest, Boston College, and North Carolina State.  Also, look for Dino Babers’ squad to pull at least one mild upset–perhaps Louisville or Virginia Tech.  A bowl game may be a year away though.  The Confidential sets the over-under at 4.5 wins.

What do you think?  Will Syracuse go over or under 4.5 regular season wins?

The Confidential’s 2016 Football Over-Under: Pitt

Last year, the Confidential unveiled over-unders for each ACC school.  For Pitt, the over-under was set at 6.5 regular season wins.  Ultimately, Pitt ended up with 8 regular season wins.  But now it is on to 2016.  The Confidential sets the over-under for Pitt at 7.5 regular season wins.

Here is the schedule for 2016:

  • 9/3/16: Villanova
  • 9/10/16: Penn State
  • 9/17/16: @ Oklahoma State
  • 9/24/16: @ North Carolina
  • 10/1/16: Marshall
  • 10/8/16: Georgia Tech
  • 10/15/16: @ Virginia
  • 10/27/16: Virginia Tech
  • 11/5/16: @ Miami
  • 11/12/16: @ Clemson
  • 11/19/16: Duke
  • 11/26/16: Syracuse

Very likely wins: Villanova, Marshall, Syracuse

Very likely losses: @ Oklahoma State, @ Clemson

Verdict: Pitt had a very good season last year, but the schedule is tougher in 2016.  Villanova will be a feisty FCS opponent (ask Syracuse), while Penn State returns to the schedule the following week creating a chance for a “look ahead” situation.  But you have to beat your FCS opponent and your non-P5 opponent (Marshall).  Meanwhile, Syracuse has not beaten Pitt in Pitt since… 2001… so that’s three wins.  Road trips to Oklahoma State and Clemson should be losses.  That leaves 7 middle-ground games.  Trips to Virginia, Miami,and North Carolina are far from certain losses, obviously.  Home games against Duke, Virginia Tech, and Georgia Tech are all winnable, obviously.  Would losses in any of them be shocking though?  Nope.  With a tough OOC, we’ll leave Pitt where it was last year–straddling the 7-8 win mark.

What do you think?  Will Pitt go over or under 7.5 regular season wins?

The Confidential’s 2016 Football Over-Under: Notre Dame

Last year, the Confidential unveiled over-unders for each ACC school.  For Notre Dame, the over-under was set at 9.5 regular season wins.  Ultimately, the Fighting Irish ended up with 10 regular season wins, with losses at Clemson and Stanford being the only regular season blemishes.  But now it is on to 2016.  The Confidential sets the over-under for Notre Dame at 10.5 regular season wins.

Here is the schedule for 2016:

  • 9/4/16: @ Texas
  • 9/10/16: Nevada
  • 9/17/16: Michigan State
  • 9/24/16: Duke
  • 10/1/16: Syracuse (neutral site)
  • 10/8/16: @ NC State
  • 10/15/16: Stanford
  • 10/29/16: Miami
  • 11/5/16: Army
  • 11/12/16: Navy
  • 11/19/16: Virginia Tech
  • 11/26/16: @ USC

Very likely wins: Nevada, Syracuse, @ NC State, Army, Navy

Very likely losses: Texas or USC

Verdict: Wow… pretty rare to see a football schedule with only three road games.  The neutral site game against Syracuse will likely be a de facto home game.  How can Notre Dame not have a great season?   Well, do not sleep on Michigan State, Duke, Miami, and Va Tech.  And Stanford is always a potential loss.  Meanwhile, one of Texas or USC–elite programs struggling recently–can pull off a home win over Notre Dame.  Still, this is a very favorable schedule.  The over/under, therefore, is set at 10.5 wins.

What do you think?  Will Notre Dame go over or under 10.5 regular season wins?

The Confidential’s 2016 Football Over-Under: Louisville

Last year, the Confidential unveiled over-unders for each ACC school.  For Louisville, the over-under was set at 9.5 regular season wins.  Ultimately, Louisville ended up with 7 regular season wins, with the losses to Houston and Pittsburgh being relative “surprises.”  But now it is on to 2016.  The Confidential sets the over-under for Louisville at 7.5 regular season wins.

Here is the schedule for 2016:

  • 9/1/16: Charlotte
  • 9/9/16: @ Syracuse
  • 9/17/16: Florida State
  • 9/24/16: @ Marshall
  • 10/1/16: @ Clemson
  • 10/14/16: Duke
  • 10/22/16: NC State
  • 10/29/16: @ Virginia
  • 11/5/16: @ Boston College
  • 11/12/16: Wake Forest
  • 11/17/16: @ Houston
  • 11/26/16: Kentucky

Very likely wins: Charlotte, Wake Forest, Kentucky

Very likely losses: Florida State, @ Clemson

Verdict: With OOC trips to Marshall and Houston, Louisville has scheduled outside of the P5 conferences, but challenged itself significantly.  Throw in trips to Syracuse, Boston College, and Virginia, and three “very likely home wins” become three very challenging road conference games.  Duke and NC State will not be pushovers from the home slate either.  A sweep of all seven of those games is not impossible, but realistically not likely either.  In fact, it is certainly plausible for two or three of those games to be losses.  All in all, this is looking like a tough year for Louisville compared to the expectations of the fan base.  It is hard to envision wins over Florida State and Clemson.  Even assuming significant success beyond those two games, that does not give much cushion in an improving conference.  The over/under, therefore, is set at 7.5 wins.

What do you think?  Will Louisville go over or under 7.5 regular season wins?

ACC In the NFL–2016 Draft Update After 3 Rounds

Yesterday, the Confidential recapped Round 1.  There was an error–there were only 31 picks because New England lost its first round pick to whatever latest scandal they were embroiled in.  For whatever reason, having 6 of 31 picks just looks a lot better than 6/32.  Still, it was hard to call Round 1 spectacular with so much Notre Dame influence.  Day 2 did not do much to improve the analysis.  But, upon further review, there is nothing for the ACC to hang its head about.

Here is a list of the ACC players taken in Round 2:

  • Kevin Dodd, DE Clemson (Tennessee Titans)
  • Jaylon Smith, LB Notre Dame (Dallas Cowboys)
  • Nick Martin, OL Notre Dame (Houston Texans)
  • Mackensie Alexander, CB Clemson (Minnesota Vikings)
  • Tyler Boyd, WR Pittsburgh (Cincinnati Bengals)
  • TJ Green, S Clemson (Indianapolis Colts)
  • Roberto Aguayo, K Florida State (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
  • Adam Gotsis, DL Georgia Tech (Denver Broncos)

After 2 rounds, the ACC had 14/63 picks.   That is 22%.  With 5 major conferences, right about where the ACC should be to maintain par.  However, with 4 of those being Notre Dame, and the fair perception that Notre Dame is not really an ACC football school, that drops things to 10/63, or 16%.  Still, that is not horrible given that 8 of those 63 draftees were not from P5 schools.  10 out of the 55 P5 players drafted works out to 18%, maybe 1 draftee short of where the ACC “should be.”  Certainly not worthy of concern.

Here is a list of the ACC players taken in Round 3:

  • Keivarae Russell, CB, Notre Dame (Kansas City Chiefs)
  • Joe Thuney, OG, NC State (New England Patriots)
  • Kendall Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech (Washington Redskins)
  • C.J. Prosise, RB, Notre Dame (Seattle Seahawks)
  • Jacoby Brissett, QB, NC State (New England Patriots)
  • Justin Simmons, S, Boston College (Denver Broncos)

Of the 98 players drafted in the first three rounds, 20 were from the ACC (including Notre Dame).  That works out to 20.4%.  If you exclude Notre Dame’s impressive six draftees, that drops things down to 14.3%, roughly 1 in 7 draftees being from ACC schools.

The Confidential is of the opinion that the ACC should strive to supply approximately 17% of the draftees each year.  That corresponds to 1/6th of the draftees, with 1/6th also apportioned for the SEC, Big 10, Pac 12, Big 12, and “other.”  As for the “other,” the NFL certainly does not shy away from taking players with potential from outside the P5.  In fact, 15 of the 98 players drafted through 3 rounds were from schools outside the P5.

Here are the “by conference” totals:

  1. Big 10: 22
  2. SEC: 22
  3. ACC: 20 (including Notre Dame)
  4. Other: 15
  5. ACC: 14 (excluding Notre Dame)
  6. Pac 12: 10
  7. Big XII: 9

If you do not include Notre Dame as an ACC school, even an unspectular first three round still has the ACC well ahead of the Pac 12 and Big XII for producing players.  Even adjusted for fewer teams, the Pac 12 and Big XII still fall short of meeting the 1 draftee per school ratio that the ACC meets.  If you include Notre Dame, then the ACC bumps right up behind the Big 10 and the SEC.

The best way to sum up the first three rounds from an ACC perspective is to state that it has been an “OK” draft.  The draft has done nothing to suggest that the ACC is not worthy of every respect as a football conference.  Regardless of whether you count Notre Dame as an ACC school, the ACC is still a solid “third” in producing NFL talent.

NFL Draft Update: ACC Players Round 1

With Round 1 of the NFL Draft complete, here is a look at which ACC schools had players drafted and where they went:

  • With the 5th overall pick, the Jacksonville Jaguars selected FSU cornerback, Jalen Ramsey.
  • With the 6th overall pick, the Baltimore Ravens selected Notre Dame tackle, Ronnie Stanley.
  • With the 12th overall pick, the New Orleans Saints selected Louisville defensive tackle, Sheldon Rankins.
  • With the 19th overall pick, the Buffalo Bills selected Clemson defensive end, Shaq Lawson.
  • With the 21st overall pick, the Houston Texans selected Notre Dame wide receiver, Will Fuller
  • With the 25th overall pick, the Pittsburgh Steelers selected Miami cornerback, Artie Burns

Thus, 4/32 picks are from ACC schools… 6/32 if you include Notre Dame (as we do).   By comparison, the SEC had 8 players drafted, while Ohio State alone had five players drafted in the first round.  Not a great first day, but there are six more rounds for the ACC to show itself as a top conference for producing NFL talent.

Among the key ACC Players still left to be drafted are:

  • QBs: Jacoby Brissett, NC State
  • RBs: CJ Prosise, Notre Dame; Shaquille Powell, Duke; Shad Thornton, NC State
  • WRs/TEs: Tyler Boyd, Pitt
  • Offensive Line: Nick Martin, Notre Dame; Joe Thuney, NC State; Landon Turner, North Carolina
  • Defensive Line: Kevin Dodd, Clemson; Sheldon Day, Notre Dame; Ron Thompson, Syracuse
  • Linebackers: BJ Goodson, Clemson;
  • Secondary: Mackensie Alexander, Clemson; TJ Green, Clemson; Kendall Fuller, Virginia Tech, Jeremy Cash, Duke
  • Special Teams/Other: Roberto Aguayo (K), FSU;

It will be interesting to see if and when each of these players gets drafted.

 

2016 Confidential Bracket Contest Update: After Round 2

The big news is that six–count them…. six–ACC schools are in the Sweet Sixteen.  Whatever label is put on the SEC for football, the ACC’s basketball dominance is even greater.  This makes sense in a league with outstanding coaching from top to bottom (well, Boston College… sigh).  Congrats to the league for making itself into a true hoops powerhouse.  In any event, here is the top 25 in the Confidential’s Bracket Contest:

Standings

Rank
Owner
Bracket
Correct Picks
Points
Bonus Pts
Total Pts
1
37
85
27
112
2
34
77
34
111
3
34
79
22
101
4
34
76
24
100
5
34
78
18
96
5
32
72
24
96
7
34
80
14
94
8
33
76
17
93
8
33
76
17
93
10
31
73
18
91
11
30
68
22
90
12
31
72
17
89
13
32
73
15
88
14
31
73
14
87
14
30
66
21
87
16
32
74
12
86
17
32
75
9
84
18
31
71
12
83
18
29
65
18
83
20
30
70
11
81
21
28
63
17
80
21
30
69
11
80
23
29
67
12
79
24
29
66
12
78
25
29
68
9
77

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