The Confidential

The ACC Sports Blog

Archive for the tag “ACC”

ACC Basketball Rankings: December 10, 2012

This is particularly complex with Pitt, Louisville, Notre Dame, and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  This is how the Confidential ranks the ACC basketball teams as of December 10, 2012:

1Duke (9-0)–The Blue Devils are hated by many.  But you cannot deny how successful this season has gone.  An impressive 9-0.

2. Syracuse (8-0)–The Orange have two good victories, but no truly great ones.  A decent OOC slate, but the real meat comes in the Big East regular season.

3. Louisville (8-1)–The ACC’s newest addition has only lost to Duke.  A win over Missouri is the big victory on the schedule.

4.Pittsburgh (9-1)--The Panthers are looking to rebound after last year’s disappointing season.  Only loss is to a very very good Michigan team.

5. Notre Dame (8-1)–The Irish lost to St. Joseph’s, which is not uber-embarrassing.  Still, that has them behind several teams.  The win over Kentucky was nice, but less impressive now.

6. Maryland (7-1)–The Terps have been good, losing only to Kentucky.  Still waiting on an impressive win though.

7. North Carolina State (6-2)–The Wolfpack have been somewhat disappointing at only 6-2.  But the losses are not awful and they do have a win over surprising UConn.

8.Virginia Tech (7-1)–Despite losing to WVU, the Hokies have decent wins, such as Iowa and Oklahoma State.  Not too bad.

9. North Carolina (7-2)–As good as 7-2 looks, the Tar Heels have not beaten anyone of note.  The best win might be Mississippi State, a lower tier SEC team.

10. Miami (5-1)–Miami’s win over Michigan State was very impressive.  Need to see the Hurricanes against major competition a few more times before having them elevate over the teams ahead of them.

11. Virginia (8-2)The Wahoos struggled in the first few games, but are rounding into form.  With wins over Tennessee and Wisconsin, look for this team to rise to the top half.

12. Georgia Tech (6-2)–No shame in the two losses, but it’s hard to find even a decent win for the Yellow Jackets.  Time will tell.

13. Clemson (5-3)–The Tigers have tough losses–Gonzaga, Illinois, and Arizona.  This team may peak late in the season.

14. Florida State (5-4)–At 5-4, the Seminoles are easily the ACC’s disappointment so far.  The losses to Mercer and South Alabama stand out.

15. Wake Forest (4-5)–The Demon Deacons did beat Mercer, but few other teams.  The losses are not horrible, but just way too many to get to NIT-level play.

16. Boston College (4-5)-Losses to Charleston and Bryant land Boston College in its familiar, cellar position.  So it goes in Beantown.

Right/wrong?  Disagree?  If not, let us know.

Exit Fees and Liquidated Damages

Many people are confident that the ACC will be able to enforce its exit fee against Maryland.  Many people are confident that the ACC will not be able to enforce its exit fee against Maryland.  Regardless of which side is correct, it is important to understand the issue.

Most helpful to a non-lawyer is this recent article from the businessofcollegesports.com.  The article provides a great layman’s understanding of something called liquidated damages:

In legal terms, conference exit fees are known as liquidated damages.  Liquidated damages provisions are commonly added to contracts.  They set the amount a party to the contract must pay in the event it breaches the contract.  Liquidated damages provisions are useful because they theoretically save the parties the time and expense of litigating the amount of damages caused by the breach.

But, the amount of liquidated damages specified in a contract cannot be randomly selected.  Courts will generally only enforce liquidated damages provisions if (1) the anticipated damages in the event of a breach are difficult to ascertain at the time of contracting, and (2) the amount of liquidated damages is a reasonable estimate of the actual damages that would likely be caused by a breach.  If a liquidated damages provision does not meet this test it is deemed a penalty and is unenforceable.

The ACC’s current exit fee is not $50,000,000.  Instead, as the article notes, the ACC’s exit fee is “three times the conference’s total operating budget at the time of withdrawal.”  As for Maryland, this means the amount is roughly $52M.

Where the Confidential differs is the analysis of whether the exit fees satisfy (1) and (2).  The author does not seem to question (1).  Indeed, how exactly does one quantify the damages where a founding member of a conference leaves?  With all the conference realignment discussion, people talk about TV revenue.  But what about the unquantifiable damage to a conference when it is perceived to be unstable?  When there are daily rumors regarding this or that member leaving?  When there are discussions about whether the conference will cease to exist.  When schools like Wake Forest have, really, no other option at all in the conference realignment scenario.  Where it is questionable whether Pitt, BC, Syracuse, and other schools are certain to have a landing spot.  Does ESPN want to renegotiate now, when it might have to renegotiate in two weeks if two schools leave?  Do kids want to play for a school that may go from “ACC,” as it is currently thought of,” to its current weakened position in comparison to other conferences?  If UVA and Georgia Tech leave the ACC, what does that do for Florida State’s academic reputation?  How can you quantify these things?

You cannot.  Which is where exit fees come from.  Instead of trying to figure that all out, you agree on a number ahead of time.

As for (2), the article states “that [t]he requirement to pay three times the conference’s operating budget does not appear to be related in any way to the actual amount of damages the ACC would suffer if a member withdraws.”  Liquidated damages clauses often just state a sum certain.  The ACC provision is actually tethered to something that relates to the size and wealth of the ACC at the time a member departs.  If the ACC grows and becomes even more successful, it has more to lose.  If the ACC contracts, it has less to lose and the liquidated damages (exit fees) decrease.  Moreover, the schools have a say in the conference’s operating budget.  If the schools want the conference to scale back operations, they can do so.

Perhaps the ACC could have tied its exit fees to TV revenue.  But this excludes the damage to the ACC’s name.  Is there any question that swapping Louisville for Maryland is a loss with respect to academics, cohesion, and the appearance of the ACC?  The ACC has been damaged beyond anything that can be measured in TV revenue.  The ACC is perceived to be on life support, forcing Presidents to make statements regarding rumors, etc.  Maybe a more reasonable number would be 1 or 2 or 1.5 times the operating budget, but the operating budget is a conservative measure to calculate damages.

Moreover, people analyzing this situation speak in terms of “black and white.”  Lawyers, at least good ones, know that life (and the law) are not black and white.  As the litigation moves forward, the parties will likely have a sense as to where the judge is leaning on legal issues.  Will the judge allow the jury to resolve the question of whether the exit fee is reasonable?  Will the judge decide it as a matter of law? On an issue like this, the judge is likely to defer a definitive ruling and give the parties a chance to settle based on an expectation of what these rulings would be.  In the meantime, nobody should presume that a certain result is inevitable.  It is doubtful that there will even be a result.  Someone will blink.

 

Florida State & Expansion (Update)

Frank the Tank is now fanning the fires with respect to a Florida State move to the Big 10.

But the ACC Presidents decided to jointly issue a statement pledging allegiance to the ACC.  The text is as follows:

“We, the undersigned presidents of the Atlantic Coast Conference, wish to express our commitment to preserve and protect the future of our outstanding league.  We want to be clear that the speculation about ACC schools in negotiations or considering alternatives to the ACC are totally false.  The presidents of the ACC are united in our commitment to a strong and enduring conference.  The ACC has long been a leader in intercollegiate athletics, both academically and athletically, and the constitution of our existing and future member schools will maintain the ACC’s position as one of the nation’s premier conferences.”

Obviously, this is not a binding contract or anything.  But it is noteworthy that some of the most desirable expansion targets initiated this process.  Regardless of is value, it is an unprecedented move.  This is negative, because such moves have not previously been necessary.  It is positive because the Presidents are trying to assure each other that they do not need to try to beat each other to the punch.  Unless and until there is a grant of rights (which the Confidential believes is not insurmountable), the rumors are not likely to stop.  Indeed, one wonders how much of the realignment rumor mill is being created by those who recruit against the ACC.

 

Is Florida State the Next to Leave the ACC?

With the Georgia Tech rumors squashed over the weekend, the rumor mill has turned back to Florida State.  This time, it is a rumor that Florida State is shopping itself around.  You can take the source for whatever it is worth.

One does have to keep in mind that the Florida State fan base is putting a lot of pressure on the administration here.  Somehow, they have rationalized that their football failures are based on lack of revenue, rather than simple things like poor coaching and bad luck. The best case scenario is that Florida State’s leadership has to come out and say that they are happy with the ACC.  This is imperfect because it will just anger the fan base more.  The worst case scenario, of course, is that where there is smoke, there is fire.  Welcome to the Big Ten’s vision of college football–where money is more important than anything else.

The reality is that, unless and until someone does something to stabilize the ACC, it is just going to be one rumor after another.

So what could possible stabilize the ACC?  The Confidential thinks that the only thing that could possible stabilize the ACC is for ESPN to step up and make the ACC a legitimate player from a revenue standpoint.  In the absence of that, there will not be a grant of rights, which would be significantly more protective than the exit fee (whatever it is).  At the very least, the ACC and ESPN should negotiate to allow Florida State to keep its precious Tier III rights.  Throw a dog a bone, even if it is whining for no reason.

Boston College Hires Steve Addazio

After a few miserable seasons, the Boston College Eagles need to go in a new direction.  With many options, the Eagles nabbed Steve Addazio from Temple.  Other rumored candidates for the job included Notre Dame defensive coordinator Bob Diaco, Ball State coach Pete Lembo and New Orleans Saints offensive line coach Aaron Kromer.  Notably, none of those candidates had head coaching experience. Addazio certainly had the edge there.  Addazio has done fine for Temple, leading them to a 13-11 record in two seasons.

A few interesting tidbits about the move.  First, Syracuse will be joining the ACC next year.  Addazio’s son, Louie, is a tight end for Syracuse.  Apparently, Addazio likes facing Syracuse and his son.  He also had this to say after the Syracuse-Temple game this year:

“Obviously, I’m rooting for them in a bowl game,” he said. “Syracuse has got a special place in my heart. Aside from Friday, I’m certainly cheering for them.”

Second, after dismissing Frank Spaziani, one would think that Boston College would find an Irish-American coach.  Instead, they hire a guy named Addazio?  Sin é an corr.

Still, this seems like a good hire.  A guy with Northeast recruiting ties and SEC coaching experience.  A good fit.

 

The Confidential’s College Basketball Top 25 & Bottom 5: December 4, 2012

Each week, the Confidential will provide its ranking of the top 25 teams in College Basketball, as well as the Bottom 5 major conference teams.  Here is the December 4, 2012, update, with analysis of the top 10 and bottom 5:

  1. Duke (8-0): The Blue Devils have beaten Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State.  Who has beaten better teams?  Nobody.
  2. Indiana (8-0): Tough call between Syracuse and Indiana, but the edge goes to the Hoosiers.  Indiana has convincing wins over Georgetown and North Carolina already.
  3. Syracuse (6-0): The Orange have beaten San Diego State in San Diego and Arkansas in Fayetteville.  Looking very good as the calendar hits December.
  4. Michigan (7-0): With wins over Pitt and NC State, the Wolverines are off to a perfect start.  The most talented Michigan team in a long, long time.  Well, outside East Lansing anyway.
  5. Florida (6-0): Gator-mania is back.  Florida has already beaten Wisconsin and Marquette.  Struggling Seminoles are up next.
  6. Louisville (6-1):  The Cardinals are not coping well with the injury to Gorgui Dieng.  Still, only loss of the season is to Duke.
  7. Gonzaga (8-0): After a few quiet years, Gonzaga hopes to return to national prominence.  Hmmmm…does the Big East need a team in Washington?
  8. Ohio State (5-1).  Like Louisville, Ohio State has only lost to Duke.  The Buckeyes are part of a strong upper tier of the Big Ten.
  9. Cincinnati (7-0): Lack of elite opponents makes this ranking a bit high.  But the Bearcats are at least beating some major conference opponents (Oregon, Alabama, Iowa State).
  10. Arizona (5-0).  The Wildcats have not really played anyone yet.  So the undefeated start is not all that impressive.  Yet.
  11. Missouri (6-1).
  12. Illinois (8-0).
  13. New Mexico (8-0).
  14. San Diego State (5-1).
  15. Creighton (7-1).
  16. Georgetown (5-1).
  17. Notre Dame (7-1).
  18. Minnesota (8-1).
  19. Wichita State (8-0).
  20. North Carolina State (4-2).
  21. Oklahoma (6-1).
  22. UNLV (5-1).
  23. Kansas State (6-1).
  24. North Carolina (6-2).
  25. Michigan State (6-2).

* * *

300. West Virginia (2-3).  A lot of teams with 3 wins knocking on the door here, but the Mountaineers and their 2 wins earn the spot.  Not likely to last though.

301.  Vanderbilt (2-4).  Vanderbilt has lost to Oregon, Villanova, Marist, Davidson.  Yikes.

302.  Georgia (2-5).  The Bulldogs losses to Youngstown State, UCLA, Southern Mississippi, and South Florida are perplexing.  Indiana is understandable.

303.  Mississippi State (2-5).  No shame to losing to North Carolina, Marquette or Texas.  Providence was a disappointment.  Troy an embarrassment.

304.  Auburn (2-5).  Is Auburn the worst athletic department in the country?  Football team faces more scandal and was terrible this year.  The hoops team has now lost to Murray State, Rhode Island, Boston College, DePaul, and Dayton.

These rankings are early and will certainly shake up as the season progresses.  Still, if you feel like debating, share your comments…

Is Georgia Tech the Next to Leave the ACC? Updated.

The Confidential does not invent these rumors, just reporting them. This one is getting a lot of attention over on Frank the Tank’s latest blog entry.  See the comments and sources there.

This never ends.

Update 1: For whatever its worth, the acting athletic director is denying the rumors.  See here.  The money quotes are as follows:

“I’m not aware of any communications between university leadership and the Big Ten or any other conference,” Griffin said Friday afternoon from Charlotte, where Tech will play Florida State for the ACC football championship Saturday.

Griffin acknowledged that an action like switching conferences from the ACC to the Big Ten would take place at an executive level, but said that Tech president G.P. “Bud” Peterson “has told me there’s been no communication nor does he expect any.”

It is hard to know what is smoke and what is smoke from fire these days.  Take most of what you read with a grain of salt, apparently.

Update 2: Well, Bud Peterson has spoken up.

Here is the money quote:

“Not true. Not true,” Peterson said prior to the ACC Championship game. “We’re happy in the ACC. We’re staying.”

Internet and radio reports cited unnamed sources or repeated rumors that the school will follow Maryland out of the ACC and to the Big Ten, one reporting that the school will hold a news conference Monday to announce its departure.

“We’re not going anywhere,” said Peterson, speaking outside his suite at Bank of America Stadium.

Perhaps there can be some relaxation now.

Now the Rumor is Georgia Tech & Virginia to the Big 10

Someone named Kevin Jones claims to have a source indicating that Georgia Tech and Virginia will be in the Big 10 by Monday.  If so, it certainly seems that Jim Delaney is hell bent on putting the ACC out of business.  If you cannot win on the field or on the court, at least you can win in the conference realignment game.

 

Is Georgia Tech the Next to Leave the ACC?

The Confidential does not invent these rumors, just reporting them. This one is getting a lot of attention over on Frank the Tank’s latest blog entry.  See the comments and sources there.

This never ends.

Update: For whatever its worth, the acting athletic director is denying the rumors.  See here.  The money quotes are as follows:

“I’m not aware of any communications between university leadership and the Big Ten or any other conference,” Griffin said Friday afternoon from Charlotte, where Tech will play Florida State for the ACC football championship Saturday.

Griffin acknowledged that an action like switching conferences from the ACC to the Big Ten would take place at an executive level, but said that Tech president G.P. “Bud” Peterson “has told me there’s been no communication nor does he expect any.”

It is hard to know what is smoke and what is smoke from fire these days.  Take most of what you read with a grain of salt, apparently.

ACC Football Predictions for December 1, 2012

The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams.  Anyway, last week the Confidential went 8-2, improvidently trusting Clemson and Florida State, improving the overall record to a respectable 86-32.  Pretty interesting game tonight, as the ACC’s Louisville battles the Big Ten’s Rutgers in a battle for the Big East Championship.  On to the week 14 predictions:

Pittsburgh (5-6) @ South Florida (3-9), 7:00 p.m.  The Panthers are desperate for a win to get bowl eligible.  The Bulls are over-matched, but playing on Senior Night for an embattled head coach.  This probably should go one of two ways, with the emotion for South Florida either being very high or very low.  So the Confidential with out-think itself by predicting the emotion to be merely medium.  If so, Pitt wins.  Prediction: Pittsburgh 31, South Florida 13.

ACC Championship Game

#13 Florida State (10-2) v Georgia Tech (6-6), 8:00 p.m.  The ACC having a 7-6 Georgia Tech in the BCS is only good to the extent that it means a bigger payout.  In all other respects, it would be an embarrassment.  Of course, if Georgia Tech loses, they would seek a waiver to play in a bowl game, despite being 6-7.  In the end, they could end up 6-8.  And that’s your ACC Championship Game entrant for the Coastal Division everyone!  Florida State, however, lost disappointingly to Florida.  A few coaches are either leaving or interviewing for head coach positions elsewhere.  Promotions are nice, but distracting.  Closer than expected here.  Prediction: Florida State 35, Georgia Tech 24.

The Confidential apologizes in advance for not picking your team.  A lot of close games here.  Feel free to share why we are wrong. 

Post Navigation