The Confidential

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Archive for the tag “Duke”

25 Aug 2012

Week 1 Preview: Do Maryland, Syracuse, Duke, BC, and Wake Forest Have Legit Bowl Chances?

I hope you had your fill of summer because it is about to come to an abrupt stop.  Sure, there is plenty of nice weather in September.  But it is also the time of year that your football team–even the Washington States and Dukes and Mississippis–are still alive for a bowl game.  After all, it takes six losses before a team is ineligible for bowl and even that is perhaps going to be loosened up.  So nobody gets eliminated in September.  So… with Week 1 of College Football JUST around the corner, here is a look at what the bottom 5 teams (excluding teams that are automatically ineligible–North Carolina and likely Miami) in the ACC have to do to become bowl eligible this year.

The Confidential does not care what any outsider thinks, the ACC is going to be fairly strong this year.  The weakest teams in the conference–as per the Confidential’s pre-preseason rankings–all have a conceivable shot of making a bowl game this year.  Consider:

  • MARYLAND.  Maryland was abysmal last year.  The new coach, Randy Edsall, decided to ignore what has failed for many new coaches by running players out of the program and blowing things up completely.  As we saw with RichRod in Michigan, one has to be very careful when dismantling and rebuilding.  Edsall permanently lost some of the fan base last year.  Winning 10 games over 3 seasons will mean no 4th season.  The good news is that Maryland has a tough OOC schedule, but one that was perfectly designed, in the Confidential’s opinion.  Maryland opens with FCS William and Mary.  They then move up to play Temple, before moving up one more step to UConn.  Those are three winnable games.  West Virginia is probably a loss most seasons and should be this year.  Wake Forest is at home–winnable #4.  Boston College is away, but that has to be a winnable game for #5.  Now all Maryland needs is to steal a game from the group of North Carolina, North Carolina State, and the even tougher portion of the slate.  With 5 “winnable games,” a 6-win season is not at all impossible.  Likely?  Nah.  But possible.
  • DUKE.  Unlike Maryland, Duke slated its toughest OOC game for Week #2, with Stanford.  But this is a post-Luck, post-Harbaugh Stanford team.  Still, that has to be considered a loss.  Nevertheless, with Memphis, North Carolina Central, and Florida International filling up the OOC slate, a 3-1 OOC record is very reasonable.  Finding the next three wins for Duke is a challenge though.  The best chances are Wake Forest (even if on the road) and the sanctions-laden North Carolina and Miami games.  Both of those games are at home.  It’s possible.
  • BOSTON COLLEGE.  Boston College will be better than last year, but will it translate into victories?  BC opens with Miami at home.  Who knows the mindset of Miami.  But it’s a possible win.  Maine is next, which should be a win.  Northwestern on the road will be tough, especially if Northwestern loses its season opener to Syracuse and is desperate.  Still, Northwestern’s small stadium is not imposing.  It’s winnable.  The Game 5 road game against Army is a winnable game, obviously.  Maryland visits in October, which is yet another winnable game.  Finding the next two is a bit tougher.  Wake Forest is a road game, but still a possibility.  That still leaves a home game against Notre Dame and a road game against North Carolina State.  Bowl eligibility is within reach if Boston College can not only meet its potential, but exceed it.
  • SYRACUSE.  Poor Syracuse.  They have a 5th-year Senior quarterback, but inexperience at running back and the continued trend of underwhelming wide receivers.  The defense will have one more year of experience, but lost two guys to the NFL.  But what really makes this a tough season is the daunting OOC schedule.  As previously noted, Syracuse is doing all but scheduling NFL teams this year, with USC, Missouri, and Northwestern on the slate.  Minnesota is a battle tested BCS program, while even FCS foe Stony Brook is primed to repeat its college baseball run.  In order to go to a bowl, Syracuse HAS to beat Northwestern, Minnesota, and Stony Brook.  Even then, Syracuse has struggled so much in  conference games since firing Paul Pasqualoni, it is hard to envision going 3-4 in conference.  But if they do, the wins will likely come on the road against Rutgers, at home against UConn, and on the road at Temple.  About the only good thing is that Syracuse has been 5-2 each of the past two seasons, before imploding due to lack of depth.  If Syracuse can somehow get to 5-2 this year, all they will have to do is beat Temple.  We’ll see.
  • WAKE FOREST.  Notably, all of the current ACC teams above are looking at Wake Forest as a necessary win to get to bowl eligibility.  So that’s three winnable games for Wake Forest right there–with only Maryland being a road game.  Wake Forest also has winnable games against Army and Liberty.  And given that Wake Forest has Florida State’s number lately…. well, let’s not go there.  Let’s get win #6 from the group of North Carolina, Vanderbilt, and North Carolina State.  Actually, Wake Forest could end up winning 7-8 games the way the schedule breaks down.

Of these teams, you can feel strongest penciling in Wake Forest for a bowl.  But this is why the week leading up to Week 1 is great.  The injuries (excluding Maryland) still seem manageable.  Nobody has lost a “winnable game” yet.  Even September will retain some enthusiasm.  And for the 5 teams with the toughest roads to bowl-eligibility, there is a path.  Now they just have to go walk it.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , ,
21 Aug 2012
2 Comments

Ranking the ACC Out-of-Conference Schedules

The 14 ACC schools certainly have different scheduling philosophies for out-of-conference games.  However, there is not one team that has a truly embarrassing slate, especially relative to the program at issue.  Here is the Confidential’s ranking of teams and the degree of difficulty for their OOC schedules:

Syracuse–USC and Missouri.  That alone puts them atop the list.  Add in Northwestern and Minnesota as two more BCS-level opponents.  Even Stony Brook is a high-level FCS opponent.  Syracuse gets the AC/DC Honorary “Big Balls” Award.

Miami–Kansas State, South Florida and Notre Dame are three high quality opponents.  Only Bethune-Cookman is a sure win.

Florida State–Florida and South Florida are very challenging opponents.  And FSU gets points for being willing to schedule West Virginia, even though that game was cancelled due to West Virginia fleeing the Big East.

Clemson–Auburn and South Carolina are two high-quality OOC opponents also.  Ball State may be tricky too.

Boston College: Notre Dame and Northwestern will be challenges.  Maine is good for an FCS program.  Army may or may not be good.

Virginia–Penn State was supposed to be the key game, but that is now weaker. TCU remains as a very tough opponent though.  Louisiana Tech and Richmond round out the schedule.

Pitt: Virginia Tech and Notre Dame are tough opponents.  Youngstown State and Gardner-Webb mean two FCS opponents.  Buffalo is not an overly difficult game for OOC #5.

Virginia Tech–returned to its Big East roots with games and Pitt and Cincinnati.  The other games are against Bowling Green and Austin Peay.  Meh.

Maryland–West Virginia and UConn, which gives Maryland the edge over NC State.  Temple is not a shabby third OOC game.  William and Mary round out the schedule.

North Carolina State–Tennessee and UConn will be OK opponents, but this is not the Tennessee of the 1990s and UConn did not exist back then.  South Alabama and Citadel are decent for their mid-major/FCS levels, respectively.

Georgia Tech–Georgia is always tough.  Brigham Young may or may not be a challenge, but Middle Tennessee State and Presbyterian are not going to be.

Wake Forest–Notre Dame will be tough, and you can never look past Vanderbilt.  Army and Liberty are also on the schedule.

Duke–Besides Stanford, the Blue Devils play a soft Florida International, Memphis, and North Carolina Central.

North Carolina–Louisville will be good, but Idaho, Elon, and East Carolina are underwhelming.  North Carolina gets the Beck Honorary “Loser” Award for 2012.  [And let’s not talk scandal either.]

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
20 Aug 2012

The Confidential ACC Football Rankings (Week # -1)

With the football season a mere two weeks away, the time has come for the Confidential’s Pre-Preseason Football Rankings.  As with last year, Syracuse and Pitt will be included in these rankings.  In any event, here they are:

  1. Florida State: Sooner or later, the King must be the King.  It has been a long time since the Seminoles were dominant.  Not sure it will happen this year, but they have the inside track for the ACC Championship.
  2. Virginia Tech:  While Miami and Florida State have been the ACC Kings, it is Virginia Tech that has carried the ACC most seasons since the realignment.  The Hokies slide above Clemson due to divisional differences.
  3. Clemson: The first thing Clemson needs to do is forget about the late-season collapse.  The second thing it needs to do is look at all the talent on both sides of the ball.  It’s going to be fun.  Don’t count the Tigers out.
  4. Virginia:  The Confidential likes what happened with Virginia last year and envisions the team building off that success.  It is amazing what a good coaching hire can do to rejuvenate a program.  That Penn State game looks a lot less daunting right now too.
  5. North Carolina State: The Wolfpack have a fairly talented crew returning.  The difficulty of the schedule is questionable.  Tennessee and UConn could go either way.
  6. Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets open the season with Virginia Tech.  If the Tech battle goes Ga Tech’s way, this #6 ranking will be low.
  7. North Carolina: The OOC game against Louisville will be tough, especially on the road.  But Elon, Idaho, and East Carolina is not too tough for the remainder of the slate.
  8. Pittsburgh: Every year, the Panthers seem ready to make a run.  Every year they do not.  So, it is #8 for Pitt until they capitalize on potential.
  9. Wake Forest: Not sure where Wake Forest is going with this OOC slate.  Anything from 1-3 to 3-1 is possible with Notre Dame, Vanderbilt, Army, and Liberty.  Pencil in a win over Florida state though.
  10. Miami: A reasonably challenging OOC slate with USF, Notre Dame, and Kansas State.  But Miami gets North Carolina State, Florida State, and Virginia Tech at home.
  11. Syracuse: An insane OOC, with preseason #1 USC, Missouri, Northwestern, and even Minnesota.  Is any other team playing 4 BCS conference teams OOC?  Throw in 4 conference road games and the USC game being home but on a neutral site and this has the makings of a very difficult year.
  12. Boston College: Boston College rallied last year, showing some serious character.  This should pay off in 2013.  Just not quite bowl-ready though.
  13. Duke: Outside of Stanford, Duke’s OOC is very soft.  This #13 ranking may end up being a little low.  But Duke’s going to have to prove it on the field before the Confidential believes.
  14. Maryland: Well, it cannot get WORSE for Randy Edsall, can it?  A tough OOC slate with Temple, UConn, West Virginia and William & Mary?  That’s right… William AND Mary.

The Confidential predicts a Seminoles-Hokies battle for the ACC Championship, with the Seminoles showing the world that they are back.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
12 Aug 2012
1 Comment

Duke Forms Committee to Consider Upgrading Football to FBS-Level

(8.86 Miles From Chapel Hill, North Carolina)  Duke University President Dick Brodhead has announced that the university will be forming a committee to consider upgrading the football program to FBS-Level.  The committee will be chaired by former Duke great good, quarterback Anthony Dilweg.  Dilweg, now a successful real estate businessman, will have to “quarterback” a committee considering all the various pros and cons of the upgrade.

Duke actually does have some experience at the FBS-Level, even making it to a few bowl games.  In 1994, Duke played in the Hall of Fame Bowl, just five years after playing in the All-American Bowl.  And, in 1960, Duke played in the Cotton Bowl, a 7-6 barnburner between two 8-3 teams.  This is noteworthy because the Cotton Bowl still exists!  But to make it to bowl games in the modern era of corporate-sponsored bowls, Duke’s upgrade is going to be daunting.

Any good business move requires putting the right team into place.  The Confidential suggests that, if the committee does approve an upgrade,  Duke should consider employing some or all of the following:

  • Someone to run the school’s host program AND not be foolish enough to use actual Duke co-eds to do it.  Duke may need to employ professionals here.
  • Someone to oversee modifying the schoolwork/football balance to a more North Carolina State-y level.  No need to go all out on the cheating like North Carolina, but at least scale back some of that academics crap.
  • Someone to create, implement, and subsequently ignore the free sneaker program.  Do we need to even joke about where Duke should poach this person?   (some FSU fans are a little slow, so, even though this joke expired 10 years ago… YES, we meant FSU!)
  • The standard cocaine/car/prostitute liaison.  Vice = success.
  • Depending on how many rules Duke is comfortable violating, maybe just hire Lane Kiffin or Pete Carroll?  USC has shown that private universities can bend the rules as much as any state school.
  • A couple “coaching” jobs for Dads of real good players. That’s always a big hit on the recruiting trail.
  • A person to muzzle Dick Vitale.  Not going to help the football team directly, but there has to be a karmic benefit here.

Clemson is dabbling with a “scholarship for you and a buddy” program.  Duke might want to consider that too.  A successful football program at the FBS-level must be a little creative.

Quite obviously, Duke has a lot to consider before making the upgrade, and even more to consider if that is the decision is to go forward.  But it would be worth it to see a future generation of Duke football fans get to experience a bowl.

Cool Daily and Weekly Fantasy Baseball Leagues!

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Sarcasm and tagged , , , ,
08 Aug 2012

Today in the A.C.C. (August 8, 2012)

Here is the latest that is happening with the Atlantic Coast Conference, as of August 8, 2012.

  • Previously, the Confidential noted the unfortunate circumstances surrounding Duke WR Blair Holiday.  Actually, it was yesterday, but whatever.

In a classy gesture, the Duke football team will be wearing a #8 on their helmets to honor him this season.  Good for them.  But if YOU want to do something, how about giving a donation to the fund set up to assist him: “For information on how to contribute to the The Blair Holliday Recovery Fund, visit www.giveforward.com/theblairhollidayrecoveryfund.”

  • In Miami, Ray-Ray Armstrong is not accepting his dismissal from the team without a fight; instead, he has lawyered up.

Armstrong’s counsel plans to file an injunction to force the “school to allow Armstrong to practice with the team until the NCAA determines if he has violated any bylaws.”  Of course, Armstrong’s counsel also noted that Armstrong has a lengthy history and was dismissed based on a few different incidents.  Still, it will be Armstrong’s contention that Miami has dismissed Armstrong just to make itself look better while the NCAA ponders just how much of a penalty Miami deserves.

  • In basketball news, Boston College has offered a scholarship to Chicago-area forward Evan Boudreaux.

The 6-foot 7 forward plays for Lake Forest high school.  Even if he chooses Boston College do not expect to see him any time soon–he is only a 15-year-old sophomore.  Nevertheless, he seems to have acquitted himself well against decent competition recently.

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Football and tagged , , , , ,
07 Aug 2012
1 Comment

Today in the A.C.C. (August 7, 2012)

Well, the Confidential jumped the gun a bit yesterday, calling it September in a few different places.  Rest assured, it is still August.  In any event, here is what is going on around the ACC today:

  • Hud Mellencamp, son of the famous singer John Mellencamp, is a walk-on for the Duke football team.

Mellencamp did not play football in high school football.  Nevertheless, Duke is letting him serve as a walk-on defensive back.  Maybe Florida State fans have a legit gripe about the rest of the ACC not taking its football seriously.

  • Speaking of Florida State, they are just thrilled to have stolen a tight end from Penn State, Kevin Haplea, and are not too worried about losing cornerback Greg Reid.

According to ESPN, “the Seminoles recruited Haplea out of high school in Annandale, N.J., but he chose Happy Valley over Tallahassee.”  However, he did not live happily-ever-after (pun intended) in Happy Valley, seeking out Florida State when the NCAA issued its sanctions.  FSU’s Jimbo Fisher was quick to clarify that point–Florida State did not contact Haplea, it was the other way around.  In any event, Penn State’s loss is Florida State’s gain.

Fisher is also confident that the team has the players to replace Reid, who was dismissed from the team after being charged with marijuana possession.  Kudos to Florida State, they are doing it without taking any Penn State players too.  Instead, they have a whole host of players that will audition for Reid’s spot.  All is well, apparently.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Today in the ACC and tagged , , , ,
06 Aug 2012
2 Comments

Today in the A.C.C. (August 6, 2012)

Here is a quick look at what is newsworthy in the Atlantic Coast Conference today, August 6, 2012:

  • In football, Duke WR Blair Holliday has been transferred to an Atlanta hospital.

Holliday suffered brain injuries in a July boating incident.  Hopefully, his recovery goes well.  Also, the report notes as follows: “Duke updated Holliday’s status in an announcement about the creation of a trust endowment in the receiver’s name.”  That’s a classy gesture, Duke.  Nice work.

  • In basketball, North Carolina State freshman guard Rodney Purvis is having eligibility issues.

Purvis was a McDonald’s All-American and prep basketball player of the year for North Carolina, so he is supposed to be a major  contributed for the Wolfpack this year.  Unfortunately, this eligibility issue stems from a review of his high school, and will keep/delay him from going with the rest of the team on an exhibition tour of Spain.  Hopefully, it gets sorted out fairly and appropriately before the season starts.

  • Interestingly, ESPN is touting North Carolina State as perhaps the favorite in the conference this year for hoops.

Time will tell.  Although a bit dated, the article does provide a nice overview of all the conference teams.   A worthy read.

  • Also in hoops, Duke will be joined in the Battle 4 Atlantis this year by a stacked lineup of Louisville, Memphis, Stanford, Missouri, Minnesota, VCU, and Northern Iowa.

WOW!  Where is the easy game there?  Remember that least year Harvard won this tournament too.  Don’t count out VCU and Northern Iowa.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Football, Today in the ACC and tagged , , , ,
06 May 2012

2012 Lacrosse Bracket Released

The NCAA has released the bracket for this year’s lacrosse national championship. At 14-1, Loyola Maryland earned the #1 overall seed.  Perennial power Johns Hopkins is the #2 seed.   The ACC’s very own Duke is the #3 seed, while Notre Dame is the #4 seed.

All five ACC schools will be participants.  Syracuse had to win the Big East conference championship to qualify, but they did so.  But the Orange (9-7) were “rewarded” with a game against Duke (14-3).  The only ACC teams to have rematches in the tournament, Duke already defeated Syracuse earlier in the season, 12-10. The game will be played at noon on May 12, 2012, in Durham.

Virginia was given a #5 seed.  With such a hot start, it is disappointing for the Cavaliers to end up with only a 5 seed.  The Cavs (11-3) will play Princeton (11-4).   The game will be in Charlottesville on May 13, 2012, at 1:00 p.m.   Notre Dame is the top seed in the bracket.

North Carolina (11-5) is a #8 seed and landed an opening round matchup with Denver (8-6).  The game will be played at Chapel Hill on May 12, 2012, at 7:30 p.m.  Loyola is the top seed in the bracket.

Maryland (9-5) will travel to Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, to take on #7 seed and host, Lehigh (14-2).  The game will be played at 5:00 p.m. on May 12, 2012.  Johns Hopkins is the top seed in the bracket.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Lacrosse and tagged , , , , , , ,
21 Apr 2012

2012 ACC Men’s Lacrosse Championship Game Set

The Championship Game for the 2012 ACC Men’s Lacrosse Championship is now set.  Following Friday’s two semifinal games, Duke will be playing North Carolina for the Championship.

In the 2-3 game between North Carolina and Virginia, the Cavaliers continued their late season swoon by falling to the Tar Heels, 11-9.  The game was a see-saw affair for the first three quarters, as neither team was able to mount a lead of more than 1 goal.  However, once North Carolina got to a 7-6 lead, it never trailed again.    Attackman Marcus Holman was the leading goal scorer for North Carolina with three goals, while Joey Sankey added five points with two goals and three assists.  Steele Stanwick of Virginia scored 7 points to lead the Cavaliers.  For North Carolina, it was its first win over Virginia since 2004.

In the other semifinal game, red-hot Duke defeated suddenly surging Maryland 6-5.  The low scoring affair was close throughout.  Duke did have a 6-4 lead, before allowing Maryland to get within one goal.  And then Maryland had a few opportunities in the final minutes to tie, before ultimately falling short.  Duke’s Josh Dionne was a star for the Blue Devils with a hat trick.  In the end, Duke protects its number 1 seed and will move on to Sunday’s Championship game against rival North Carolina.

Championship Game details:  Duke v North Carolina.  3 p.m.  The game will be televised on ESPNU and ESPN3.  Good luck to both teams.

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Game Review, Lacrosse and tagged , , , , , , ,
20 Apr 2012

ACC Lacrosse Weekly Report 8, April 20, 2012

The ACC Lacrosse season continues to progress…

News/Rankings:

The big news this week was Duke defeating Virginia 13-5.  Duke has been on a roll, so a win over Virginia would not have been entirely shocking.  But to win by 8 goals?  NOBODY saw that coming.

With all the losses, Loyola of Maryland and Massachusetts are atop the standings right now.  Both teams are undefeated.

The Inside Lacrosse poll has Duke at #5, with no first place votes.  Virginia is #6, Maryland is #8, North Carolina is #9, and Syracuse is #14.

In the USILA Coaches Poll, Virginia is #4 with 4 of the 0 first place votes.  Duke is #7, Maryland is #8, North Carolina is #9, and Syracuse is #15.

Recent Scores:

Tuesday, April 10, 2012:

Cornell 12-Syracuse 6, Recap

Friday, April 13, 2012:

Duke 13-Virginia 5, Recap

Saturday, April 14, 2012:

Syracuse 19-Rutgers 6, Recap

North Carolina 12-Hofstra 9, Recap

Maryland 9-Johns Hopkins 6, Recap

Tuesday, April 17, 2012:

Syracuse 13-Hobart 12, Recap

Upcoming Games:

The 2012 ACC Men’s Lacrosse Championship Tournament:

Friday, April 20, 2012 (semifinals)

#4 Maryland v #1 Duke, 5:00 p.m.

#3 North Carolina v #2 Virginia, 7:30 p.m.

Sunday, April 22, 2012

Championship, 3:00 p.m.

Other Games:

Saturday, April 21, 2012

Georgetown @ Syracuse, 3 p.m.

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Maryland @ Mount Saint Mary’s, 7:00 p.m.

 

Records:

Virginia 10-2 (2-1 in conference).

Duke 11-3 (2-1 in conference)

North Carolina 9-4 (1-2 in conference)

Maryland 7-3 (1-2 in conference)

Syracuse 7-5

 

The Confidential’s ACC Lacrosse Rankings:

1.  Duke (11-3).  After a tough start, Duke has rebounded and dominated Virginia.

2.  Virginia (10-2).  After a great start, Virginia is fading a bit.  Collapsed against Duke.

3.  North Carolina (9-4).  With a win over Maryland and more wins, North Carolina gets the edge.

4.  Maryland (7-3).  Maryland has an extra few games to show it deserves an upgrade.

5.  Syracuse (7-5).  Too many losses.  And not enough impressive wins.

If you have any comments on the ACC Lacrosse season or this entry, please feel free to share!

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Lacrosse and tagged , , , , , , , ,

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