The Confidential

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21 Aug 2012
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Ranking the ACC Out-of-Conference Schedules

The 14 ACC schools certainly have different scheduling philosophies for out-of-conference games.  However, there is not one team that has a truly embarrassing slate, especially relative to the program at issue.  Here is the Confidential’s ranking of teams and the degree of difficulty for their OOC schedules:

Syracuse–USC and Missouri.  That alone puts them atop the list.  Add in Northwestern and Minnesota as two more BCS-level opponents.  Even Stony Brook is a high-level FCS opponent.  Syracuse gets the AC/DC Honorary “Big Balls” Award.

Miami–Kansas State, South Florida and Notre Dame are three high quality opponents.  Only Bethune-Cookman is a sure win.

Florida State–Florida and South Florida are very challenging opponents.  And FSU gets points for being willing to schedule West Virginia, even though that game was cancelled due to West Virginia fleeing the Big East.

Clemson–Auburn and South Carolina are two high-quality OOC opponents also.  Ball State may be tricky too.

Boston College: Notre Dame and Northwestern will be challenges.  Maine is good for an FCS program.  Army may or may not be good.

Virginia–Penn State was supposed to be the key game, but that is now weaker. TCU remains as a very tough opponent though.  Louisiana Tech and Richmond round out the schedule.

Pitt: Virginia Tech and Notre Dame are tough opponents.  Youngstown State and Gardner-Webb mean two FCS opponents.  Buffalo is not an overly difficult game for OOC #5.

Virginia Tech–returned to its Big East roots with games and Pitt and Cincinnati.  The other games are against Bowling Green and Austin Peay.  Meh.

Maryland–West Virginia and UConn, which gives Maryland the edge over NC State.  Temple is not a shabby third OOC game.  William and Mary round out the schedule.

North Carolina State–Tennessee and UConn will be OK opponents, but this is not the Tennessee of the 1990s and UConn did not exist back then.  South Alabama and Citadel are decent for their mid-major/FCS levels, respectively.

Georgia Tech–Georgia is always tough.  Brigham Young may or may not be a challenge, but Middle Tennessee State and Presbyterian are not going to be.

Wake Forest–Notre Dame will be tough, and you can never look past Vanderbilt.  Army and Liberty are also on the schedule.

Duke–Besides Stanford, the Blue Devils play a soft Florida International, Memphis, and North Carolina Central.

North Carolina–Louisville will be good, but Idaho, Elon, and East Carolina are underwhelming.  North Carolina gets the Beck Honorary “Loser” Award for 2012.  [And let’s not talk scandal either.]

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
20 Aug 2012

The Confidential ACC Football Rankings (Week # -1)

With the football season a mere two weeks away, the time has come for the Confidential’s Pre-Preseason Football Rankings.  As with last year, Syracuse and Pitt will be included in these rankings.  In any event, here they are:

  1. Florida State: Sooner or later, the King must be the King.  It has been a long time since the Seminoles were dominant.  Not sure it will happen this year, but they have the inside track for the ACC Championship.
  2. Virginia Tech:  While Miami and Florida State have been the ACC Kings, it is Virginia Tech that has carried the ACC most seasons since the realignment.  The Hokies slide above Clemson due to divisional differences.
  3. Clemson: The first thing Clemson needs to do is forget about the late-season collapse.  The second thing it needs to do is look at all the talent on both sides of the ball.  It’s going to be fun.  Don’t count the Tigers out.
  4. Virginia:  The Confidential likes what happened with Virginia last year and envisions the team building off that success.  It is amazing what a good coaching hire can do to rejuvenate a program.  That Penn State game looks a lot less daunting right now too.
  5. North Carolina State: The Wolfpack have a fairly talented crew returning.  The difficulty of the schedule is questionable.  Tennessee and UConn could go either way.
  6. Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets open the season with Virginia Tech.  If the Tech battle goes Ga Tech’s way, this #6 ranking will be low.
  7. North Carolina: The OOC game against Louisville will be tough, especially on the road.  But Elon, Idaho, and East Carolina is not too tough for the remainder of the slate.
  8. Pittsburgh: Every year, the Panthers seem ready to make a run.  Every year they do not.  So, it is #8 for Pitt until they capitalize on potential.
  9. Wake Forest: Not sure where Wake Forest is going with this OOC slate.  Anything from 1-3 to 3-1 is possible with Notre Dame, Vanderbilt, Army, and Liberty.  Pencil in a win over Florida state though.
  10. Miami: A reasonably challenging OOC slate with USF, Notre Dame, and Kansas State.  But Miami gets North Carolina State, Florida State, and Virginia Tech at home.
  11. Syracuse: An insane OOC, with preseason #1 USC, Missouri, Northwestern, and even Minnesota.  Is any other team playing 4 BCS conference teams OOC?  Throw in 4 conference road games and the USC game being home but on a neutral site and this has the makings of a very difficult year.
  12. Boston College: Boston College rallied last year, showing some serious character.  This should pay off in 2013.  Just not quite bowl-ready though.
  13. Duke: Outside of Stanford, Duke’s OOC is very soft.  This #13 ranking may end up being a little low.  But Duke’s going to have to prove it on the field before the Confidential believes.
  14. Maryland: Well, it cannot get WORSE for Randy Edsall, can it?  A tough OOC slate with Temple, UConn, West Virginia and William & Mary?  That’s right… William AND Mary.

The Confidential predicts a Seminoles-Hokies battle for the ACC Championship, with the Seminoles showing the world that they are back.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
16 Aug 2012
5 Comments

Big East Contract Negotiations and the ACC

Last week, someone on the Internet reported that the Big East is looking to get $14 to $17 million per team per year in television revenue.  Granted, the Big East is in the catbird seat as the next conference up to market itself.  But to think that the current collection of Big East schools could approach what the ACC is getting is shocking, especially after losing Pitt, Syracuse, West Virginia, and TCU.  If the Big East could land that–and that is a huge IF–what would that mean for the ACC?

First, before we get carried away on what the Big East will get, we should heed the words of Frank the Tank, the Internet’s best blog for discussing conference issues (realignment and business):

Regardless, if there’s any semblance of reason out there, then the truth will likely be somewhere in the middle.  NBC Sports Network effectively needs any type of halfway decent live sports content, so it has a larger incentive to pay a premium to the Big East.  Comcast is NOT a charity, though, as evidenced by the aforementioned Animal Practice interlude to the Closing Ceremonies of the Olympics.  This can’t be emphasized enough: Comcast is going to pay the least amount that they can possibly get away with in order to win the Big East rights.  As a result, that floor is going to be determined by how much interest ESPN and, to a lesser extent, Fox have in the Big East.  If the conference wants to obtain maximum value, then it particularly needs to have ESPN legitimately involved in the bidding process or else Comcast isn’t just going to hand over large rights fees for the hell of it and negotiate against themselves.  In my humble opinion, ESPN isn’t going to want to let NBC Sports Network get the Big East for free, but the guys in Bristol aren’t going to go balls out to retain the Big East, either (and Comcast, who has gone toe-to-toe with ESPN in tough negotiations on many fronts, definitely knows that).  That points to a potential Big East contract that’s in the middle of the high and low figures that have been reported out there – let’s say about $10 million per all-sports school per year and $4 million per non-football school per year.

Plus, the Confidential has always believed that ESPN is genuinely irate that the Big East rejected its offer last year.  It remains to be seen whether ESPN will even allow itself to get into a bidding war with other networks over the Big East.  While Georgetown, Villanova, St. Johns, DePaul and Marquette are situated in nice markets, the lack of a football team renders them somewhat indistinguishable from Atlantic 10 schools.  So it falls on the schools like Louisville, UConn, Cincinnati, Memphis, Temple, and Rutgers to carry the all-sports side of things.  That is not an awful collection of teams, but is it really going to top what the ACC and Big XII can offer in hoops, much less what all conferences can offer in football.  Just not sold on the ratings being there to justify mega-millions.

But if the Big East does land a deal approaching the ACC’s deal, then it is obvious that the ACC is in trouble.  By being locked-in at well below market value, and with conferences like the B1G and Big XII having the ability to negotiate soon, the disparity will be massive.  Seriously, if the Big East is worth $15M per team, the other conferences have to be worth $30M per team.  It will be hard for FSU and other schools to justify being compensated like a Big East team just because the ACC improvidently locked itself in.

And once the first school leaves the ACC, it is not difficult to envision scenarios where there is a greater pillaging of ACC schools by the Big Four conferences (except the Pac-12).  There are no shortage of Internet posts analyzing just how the major conferences would carve up the ACC.  Unfortunately for Syracuse and Pitt, they may have been on the wrong side of this move.  The Big East having the good fortune to market itself at the perfect time might, ironically, be the ACC’s undoing.

Of course, if you are ESPN, you do not want the ACC imploding.  So, again, expect ESPN to make a “take it or leave it” offer to the Big East that will give it a raise, but also keep the Big East from going on the market.  And if the Big East refuses, ESPN will have to just walk away entirely and put its billion dollars elsewhere.  Frankly, that’s a good move.  ESPN does not need to overpay for content.

Maybe the NHL could use that billion dollars?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment and tagged , , , ,
10 Aug 2012

Today in the A.C.C. (August 10, 2012)

The Confidential had some fun yesterday at the expense of the Atlantic Coast Conference, but today it is back to the uber-serious ACC news.  Here is what is going on in the ACC for August 10, 2012:

Well, everyone plans to retire (except for 40% of transition baby boomers).  The real news here is that Phillips plans to do so soon–specifically, at the end of his term in July 2013.  So now Clemson must find a brand new A.D.  Or at least one that is less than retirement age.  Clemson President James F. Barker indicated that a national search for a replacement will be launched this fall, with the hopes of having a successor in place before Phillips’ contract ends.  Barker also had a slew of positive things to say about Phillips.  It is butt-kissing, funeral-quality stuff, so go read the ESPN article to get the flavor.

  • If you are an ACC school, or plan to be in 2013, chances are you are after an offensive lineman from Rochester, New York, named Alex Officer.

Actually, this was reported in ESPN’s “rumors” section, with a link to a Scout.com website that the Confidential is not yet “liquid” enough to subscribe too.  The upshot is that Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Boston College, and Virginia Tech are already after this guy.  Not sure where Randy Edsall is on this one.

This article also goes way out on a limb in projecting Duke and Wake Forest to be in the cellar of their respective divisions.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Today in the ACC and tagged , , , , , , ,
09 Aug 2012
2 Comments

ACC Revises Florida State’s 2012 Football Schedule to Accommodate TV

(SOMEWHERE IN NORTH CAROLINA)  In an attempt to placate its overlord television partners, the Atlantic Coast Conference is finalizing its 2012 football schedule.  Unfortunately, this will lead to some changes, with the Florida State Seminoles being conspired against receiving their fair share of exciting new changes.

First, because nobody cares about the Maryland Terrapins football team now that Randy Edsall has brought his bumbling. yawn-inducing style of football to College Park, ESPN has requested that the September 22 FSU-Clemson game be swapped with the November 17 game between FSU-Maryland.  Nobody wants to watch a beatdown like that in November.  Unfortunately, it just so happens that the circus is in Tallahassee on November 17, so the FSU-Clemson game must now become a road game for the Seminoles.  In exchange, the FSU-Maryland game becomes a home game for Florida State, which should appeal to fan bases of both schools as FSU fans get to watch a victory live, while Terps fans get to avoid having to watch a loss live.  Win-win-win.

Second, in a brand new marketing scheme, the October 6 FSU-North Carolina State game is also going to be moved to later in the season.  In fact, it will not even be in 2012.  Instead, the game will be played as part of a groundbreaking football/basketball doubleheader on January 29, 2013.  FSU-NC State will kickoff on ESPN at 7:00 p.m.   At 9:00 p.m., ESPN will switch its coverage to a North Carolina-Duke hoops game.  The FSU-NC State game will shift over to ESPNU or something at that point.  Dick Vitale is already excited!

Third, Duke and Florida State will play in the first “M.A.D.D. Bowl.”  In an effort to show that college football, tailgating, and alcohol do not have to go together, these two teams will kickoff at 7:00 a.m.  Also, nobody will be allowed to enter the stadium with a detectable Blood Alcohol Level.

Fourth,in response to Florida State’s protests regarding the scheduling of Thursday road games, the Atlantic Coast Conference has agreed to change the November 8 Thursday game between Virginia Tech and Florida State to November 10.  That way, Florida State does not have to play on the road on a Thursday.

Finally, to ensure adequate Thursday exposure and provide Florida State a home game on that day of the week, the October 13 home game against Boston College will be shifted to Thursday, October 18.  This is nice for Florida State fans, who get to watch the team play on that date, and then make the short trip down to Miami on Saturday, October 20, for a rivalry game against the Hurricanes.  It is going to be an exciting week for Seminole fans.

To recap, here is the final schedule for FSU (changes in bold):

  • Sept 1, Murray State: 6:00 pm
  • Sept 8, Savannah State: 6:00 pm
  • Sept 15, Wake Forest, 12:00 pm
  • Sept 22, Maryland, Time TBA
  • Sept 29, @ South Florida, Time TBA
  • Thursday, Oct 18, Boston College, 7:00 pm
  • Saturday, Oct 20, Miami, Time TBA
  • Saturday, Oct 27, Duke, 7:00 a.m. (M.A.D.D. Bowl)
  • Nov 10, @ Virginia Tech, 7:30 pm
  • Nov 17, @ Clemson, 7:30 pm
  • Nov 24, Florida, Time TBA
  • Wednesday, Jan 29, 2013, @ North Carolina State, 7:00 pm

The ACC made this official announcement regarding the scheduling changes: “In conjunction with someone from the State of Florida, presumably a Florida State fan, the Atlantic Coast Conference and ESPN are pleased to announce the finalization of the ACC football schedule.  We are also pleased that this finalization process did not impact the majority of Florida State games or in any way benefit the State of North Carolina or its member institutions.  No, we are not being defensive.  You are the ones who are being defensive.”

Florida State has yet to issue an official comment.  The Florida State blogosphere is, as usual, apathetic about things involving the football team.  Not when basketball season is just three months away…

 

 

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Posted by acaffrey in Football, Sarcasm, Uncategorized and tagged , ,
07 Aug 2012
1 Comment

Today in the A.C.C. (August 7, 2012)

Well, the Confidential jumped the gun a bit yesterday, calling it September in a few different places.  Rest assured, it is still August.  In any event, here is what is going on around the ACC today:

  • Hud Mellencamp, son of the famous singer John Mellencamp, is a walk-on for the Duke football team.

Mellencamp did not play football in high school football.  Nevertheless, Duke is letting him serve as a walk-on defensive back.  Maybe Florida State fans have a legit gripe about the rest of the ACC not taking its football seriously.

  • Speaking of Florida State, they are just thrilled to have stolen a tight end from Penn State, Kevin Haplea, and are not too worried about losing cornerback Greg Reid.

According to ESPN, “the Seminoles recruited Haplea out of high school in Annandale, N.J., but he chose Happy Valley over Tallahassee.”  However, he did not live happily-ever-after (pun intended) in Happy Valley, seeking out Florida State when the NCAA issued its sanctions.  FSU’s Jimbo Fisher was quick to clarify that point–Florida State did not contact Haplea, it was the other way around.  In any event, Penn State’s loss is Florida State’s gain.

Fisher is also confident that the team has the players to replace Reid, who was dismissed from the team after being charged with marijuana possession.  Kudos to Florida State, they are doing it without taking any Penn State players too.  Instead, they have a whole host of players that will audition for Reid’s spot.  All is well, apparently.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Today in the ACC and tagged , , , ,
02 Aug 2012
6 Comments

College Football Returns in 28 Days: Get Your TV Remote Ready

The Confidential hopes that you got a tan.  You know–you weren’t inside all summer blogging about Penn State (sigh).  Summer is basically over.  College football starts in a mere 28 days.

You know what, the Confidential is tired of Florida State’s always bellyaching about something.  One Complaint is that one time FSU had to play a Thursday game or something.  The horror!  This year, the ACC football season does not start in 28 days on a Thursday.  There are no shortage of directional schools opening the season on August 28, 2012.  In addition, other no name schools like UConn, UCLA, Texas A&M, Brigham Young, Washington State, Arizona State, and Minnesota are also playing.  Oh, and the SEC is playing a conference game on that day between South Carolina and Vanderbilt.  So there you go generic whiny Seminole fan–the best football conference that ever existed is allowing its well-compensated schools to open the season on a Thursday.  How about them apples?

The first ACC team to play is North Carolina State, who opens play on Friday, August 29, 2012.  They get a tough matchup against Tennessee.  Yep, another SEC team playing on a non-Saturday.  That’s FOUR.   And don’t forget that, on Sunday, Kentucky plays Louisville in a battle over whatever it is these two teams play for–probably a jug or something.  So that’s 5 of the 14 SEC teams not playing on a Saturday.  So stuff it FSU.

For the ACC, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech square off in a Tech-battle on Labor Day.  Give it up to ESPN–they open the weekend with the SEC and close it with the ACC.  A lot of exposure for both conferences opening weekend.

Of course, there are many games on Saturday that weekend.  But it is notable that the SEC is more than willing to play on a non-Saturday to get its programs television exposure.  Instead of complaining about playing those days, teams need to just maximize the opportunity for a captive audience.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , , ,
22 Jun 2012
3 Comments

Plea to the ACC: Reconfigure the Divisions!

The Confidential is not very sympathetic to much of what Florida State complains about.  For the most part, they blame the ACC for their own inability to field a top 10 team.  The ACC leadership is merely a scapegoat.  HOWEVER, Florida State does have a legitimate issue regarding the zipper-format that the ACC has used to divide the teams into divisions.  The Confidential renews its plea for the ACC leadership to apply a logical division of the teams primarily based on geography and school type.

As you know, the ACC is currently divided into the following divisions:

Atlantic: Clemson, Florida State, Wake Forest, North Carolina State, Boston College, Maryland, Syracuse (in 2013?)

Coastal: Georgia Tech, Miami, Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh (2013)

We know these are right because they have been researched.  Yes, one has to check the standings to keep this straight.  If ACC fans and followers have to double-check to know for sure, just think how outsiders consider the ACC.

The logical solution is to do a more pure geographical distribution:

North: BC, Maryland, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Pitt, Syracuse, and Miami

South: NC, NC State, Duke, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, FSU, and Clemson

That is easy to remember.  It’s the northern schools, plus Miami (a northern school in character).  Play 6 games, plus 2-3 cross-divisional games.  Lock-in certain rivalries: Miami-FSU, Virginia-North Carolina, maybe a few others.  Or give everyone a locked-in opponent:  BC-Duke, Syracuse-Wake Forest, Miami-FSU, Clemson-Va Tech, Georgia Tech-Pitt, Maryland-NC State, North Carolina-Virginia.  And then play 1-2 other cross-divisional games.  One could even rotate the “locked-in” game periodically, so that Duke-Syracuse and BC-Wake Forest could play each other.  And so on.

The upshot is that FSU gets games against the three southern-most schools–which is good for attendance, TV ratings, and strength of schedule.  All rivalries are preserved.  And the world can keep the division straights.  Everyone plays a ton of geographically logical games.  Only Miami loses geographically, but it renews rivalries with Syracuse, Pitt, and BC.  This is what we call a win-win.  Making FSU happy is not a bad bonus either.  So… ACC leadership… the plea has been renewed.  Make it happen!

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , ,
13 Jun 2012
2 Comments

Reports of ACC’s Death “Greatly Exagerrated”

Look, nobody can predict the future.  But for the very short term, at least, it looks like the Atlantic Coast Conference will be surviving intact.  In response to an inaccurate report of his death, Mark Twain once stated that the report of his death was “exaggerated.”  Similarly, it looks like the death of the ACC may have been prematurely pronounced too.

Florida State’s President Eric Barron addressed the trustees regarding realignment: http://floridastate.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1373740.  Naturally, this will only cause the Florida State babies fans to simply seek to get him fired.  After all, why would anyone want its leader to be one to reject knee-jerk reactions.  In any event, nothing in what Barron had to say suggests that Florida State has one foot out the door.  Barron even became the 1,000,000th person to question why the ACC does not move to geographically logical divisions.  Not much to see here.

Dabo Swinney had all kinds of negative things to say about the Big XII rumors.  Most notable is that the rumors are hurting recruiting.  It certainly makes you wonder.  Do Clemson and Florida State fans REALLY think that kids in their locality are going to be thrilled about having games a time zone away?  Let the Presidents worry about the money.  Fans can just focus on being fans.

Again, neither of these individuals have the final say.  But both are being awfully bold in their statements.  It seems likely that a lot of the college football world is going to sit tight and see what happens with playoffs before making a move.  Makes sense, really.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment and tagged , , , ,
17 May 2012

The ACC TV Schedule for Football (Partial)

The ACC has released the TV football schedule for the first few weeks of the season and a few more games.  Here it is:

Date Game Network Time
Aug. 31 Tennessee vs. NC State ESPNU 7:30 pm
Sept. 1 Elon at North Carolina ACC Network 12:30 pm
Sept. 1 William & Mary at Maryland ESPN3 3 pm
Sept. 1 Richmond at Virginia RSN 3 pm
Sept. 1 Miami at Boston College ABC/ESPN2# 3:30 pm
Sept. 1 Murray State at Florida State ESPN3 6 pm
Sept. 1 Liberty at Wake Forest ESPN3 6:30 pm
Sept. 1 Auburn vs. Clemson ESPN 7 pm
Sept. 1 FIU at Duke ESPN3 7 pm
Sept. 3 Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech ESPN 8 pm
Sept. 8 Penn State at Virginia ABC Noon
Sept. 8 Ball State at Clemson ACC Network 12:30 pm
Sept. 8 Maine at Boston College ESPN3 1 pm
Sept. 8 Austin Peay at Virginia Tech ESPN3 1:30 pm
Sept. 8 North Carolina at Wake Forest RSN 3 pm
Sept. 8 Savannah State at Florida State ESPN3 6 pm
Sept. 8 Presbyterian at Georgia Tech ESPN3 7 pm
Sept. 8 Duke at Stanford TBA* TBA*
Sept. 8 Maryland at Temple TBA* TBA*
Sept. 8 Miami at Kansas State TBA* TBA*
Sept. 8 NC State at Connecticut TBA* TBA*
Sept. 15 Wake Forest at Florida State ESPN or ESPN2 Noon
Sept. 15 Bethune-Cookman at Miami ESPN3 Noon
Sept. 15 Connecticut at Maryland ACC Network 12:30 pm
Sept. 15 Furman at Clemson RSN 3 pm
Sept. 15 Virginia at Georgia Tech ESPNU 3:30 pm
Sept. 15 South Alabama at NC State ESPN3 6 pm
Sept. 15 North Carolina Central at Duke ESPN3. 7 pm
Sept. 15 Boston College at Northwestern TBA* TBA*
Sept. 15 North Carolina at Louisville ABC, ESPN or ESPN2 TBA*
Sept. 15 Virginia Tech at Pittsburgh TBA* TBA*
Oct. 6 Miami vs. Notre Dame (Chicago, Ill.) NBC 7:30 pm
Oct. 25 Clemson at Wake Forest ESPN 7:30 pm
Nov. 1 Virginia Tech at Miami ESPN 7:30 pm
Nov. 8 Florida State at Virginia Tech ESPN 7:30 pm
Nov. 15 North Carolina at Virginia ESPN 7:30 pm
Nov. 17. Wake Forest at Notre Dame NBC 3:30 pm
Dec. 1 Dr Pepper ACC Football Championship Game ABC 8 pm or ESPN 7:45 pm

Yes, we know what you are thinking.  How long will it take Florida State fans to complain that they have to play a 6 pm game on September 8th, and then turn around and play a noon game on September 15th?  The horror.  And just wait until Seminole fans figure out that their opponent on the 15th is Wake Forest, who Florida State cannot seem to beat anymore.  Three less hours to prepare = proof that the ACC hates Florida State.  At least the fans will have their excuse ready to go when the Demon Deacons win again….

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , ,

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