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The Orange Bowl Issue

A few months ago, the SEC and Big XII announced a Championship Bowl that would add another pile of money to those conferences’ already large piles of money.  Many saw this as a sign that the ACC was relegated to second tier status as a football conference (or 19th tier, if you are a Florida State fan and looking for excuses for why the team cannot win 10 games anymore).  Some time later, the ACC announced that it had extended its relationship with the Orange Bowl AND earned the right to take the TV revenue from that game.  On the heels of that, the Confidential noted that Notre Dame would likely be a partner with the ACC in the Orange Bowl (here) or perhaps more.  Well, with the news of the ND/ACC partnership, left under-discussed was this tweet from Notre Dame’s athletic director Jack Swarbrick: “We are on track to participate in other side of the Orange Bowl along with SEC & Big Ten. Details to follow.”

This is huge news for the ACC.  Granted, the SEC or Big 10 opponent would be a #3 or #4 level opponent, but these are outstanding matchups.  With all the SEC power teams, the Orange Bowl would feature an outstanding matchup from a regional basis.  If it is a Big 10 school, Miami becomes a great vacation destination.  The Orange Bowl could see a Florida State-Nebraska game.  Of course, if both programs return to their 1990s days, they would be playing that game in the playoffs.  But assuming those teams are 9-10 win teams, that would be a great TV matchup, meaning more revenue for the ACC.  Needless to say, Notre Dame being an option is also very lucrative from a TV standpoint.  While the potential for a rematch is always there, with ND playing only 5 games, that is far from a certainty.  This, of course, is why the Orange Bowl would have the flexibility to go the B1G or SEC route.

One has to note the absence of a comment by Swarbrick regarding a Big East relationship with the Orange Bowl.  Maybe that was an oversight.  Or maybe the Orange Bowl wants nothing to do with the Big East programs.  While Louisville would probably be a good fit, as well as South Florida or Central Florida for geographic reasons, it is doubtful that an ACC-Big East matchup involving those schools would move the TV dial.  And Boise State is just too far away from Miami to think that there would be a large crowd.

In any event, ACC fans will have to continue to monitor this Orange Bowl situation.  Like the TV contract, the Orange Bowl is about ACC revenue.  The more, the better.

UPDATE: Frank the Tank is FAR more optimistic that the Orange Bowl opponent will be a high-quality SEC or B1G opponent, with the arrangement being one of timing:

The upshot of this would be that ACC #1 will be playing either Big Ten #1, SEC #1 or a highly-ranked Notre Dame team in the Orange Bowl in any given year, which will likely yield a media rights payout for the ACC that will be in line with what the Big Ten and Pac-12 are receiving for the Rose Bowl and the SEC and Big 12 are receiving for the Champions Bowl.  Thus, any chicken little beliefs that the ACC is going to end up playing subpar opponents in the Orange Bowl are going to go by the wayside.

If so, the Confidential was way off in suggesting that it would be a #3 or #4 conference representative in the Orange Bowl.  All in all, with the exception of the TV revenue flowing from the ESPN deal, ACC leadership has really rallied quite well.

Reaction to the ND-ACC Move

Naturally, a move as significant as ND moving from the Big East to the ACC can only mean Internet reactions are plentiful.

First things first, the Confidential’s take is that this is the win-win of all win-wins.  Notre Dame was left hanging in the chaotic Big East, which was about to become C-USA.  The Big East will survive, but Notre Dame was an increasingly poor fit on every front.  Notre Dame now gets to park its non-revenue sports in the ACC, which is outstanding for basketball and lacrosse.  And 5 football games against ACC schools is nothing.  Frankly, it is a win for Notre Dame because of the trouble it will have scheduling opponents in the future.  That still leaves 7 games to play against Navy, USC, a few Big 10 schools, etc.  For the ACC, this more convincingly elevates the conference above the remainder of the college football landscape.  With Notre Dame in the fold, the rest of the conference can breathe a lot more easily that Florida State and Clemson will be placated with games against Notre Dame.  Notre Dame will fill the seats and provide a great TV audience.  In fact, the bigger news is the ACC schools raising the exit fee substantially.  Sure, the ND football issue will loom.  But better to have a football issue of that nature than be relegated to outside the power structure.  ND and the ACC just ensured their seat at the table.

If you care about conference realignment, then you surely spend time over at Frank the Tank’s blog.  Between Frank and the commentariat, this is the gold standard for discussing realignment.  Here is the link to the discussion over there.

The Big XII was apparently caught off guard, or at least surprised, by the announcement, according to Chip Brown at Orangebloods.com.

Amazingly, Dick Vitale has survived ND and his beloved ACC coming together without dying of ecstasy.  A very reasoned tweet, indeed:  “ND to ACC gr8 move 4 ACC & ND control football but get away from chaos of BIG East! I don’t like these wacky moves but ND made solid move. .”  We’ll have to see how he fares when ND plays Duke in a conference game some February in the future.  A cardiologist nearby is a good idea.

All in all, Tomahawk Nation appears to be handling things well.  For them, anyway.  It looks like as many as 10% of that fan base can see the wisdom in the deal.  The remaining 90% adhere to their teenager-esque stance of hating anything the ACC does.  There really is no fan base in America that is more delusional.  Ah well, with dreaded Wake Forest on the schedule, one can appreciate the angst.

Over at On The Banks, 3 Rutgers fans have commented.  The UConnBlog is a bit more active, with a nice blend of doom-and-gloom and optimism about being team #16.

Anything else noteworthy?

UPDATE: A new entry from Frank the Tank:

What surprises me is that the ACC offered this deal to Notre Dame in the first place.  ACC commissioner John Swofford has long taken the position that the league should only be made up of all-sports members along with members such as UNC that believe that they are every bit as powerful on the college sports landscape as Texas, Michigan and USC, so it can’t be emphasized enough that this is a dramatic change.  Unlike the perception in much of the media that this move was “Notre Dame choosing the ACC”, the reality is that this was the ACC choosing to move off of a previously intractable position.  The ACC might have been spooked by the constant rumors that the Big 12 would poach schools such as Florida State or Clemson (along with adding Notre Dame as a non-football member itself) as a result of the Big 12′s new TV deal.  On that front, the ACC schools agreed to what will likely be an impenetrable wall of a $50 million exit fee for each school.  That is honestly an even bigger deal in the long-term than the Notre Dame move since it effectively the ACC from its football cash cows bolting to other conferences.

Around College Football

With the college football season only 8 days away, the Internet debates and discussions are really starting to heat up.  The Confidential notes that there are some great arguments being tossed around the blogosphere these days.  Please go check out these blogs.

First, Frank the Tank is always sharing something useful.  Today’s blog was about Notre Dame, everyone’s favorite punching bag.  Frank the Tank does a good job providing an objective analysis of Notre Dame and its position in college football.  The Confidential with paraphrase substantially, but the gist is that, even if you hate the Domers, you have to admit that they are doing nothing “wrong.”  They have a contract with NBC and a deal with the BCS that it deserves because that was given to them in arms-length negotiations.  If and when Notre Dame does not deserve these things, they will cease getting them.  So the haters should just go back to rooting for Notre Dame to lose and stop being bothered about Notre Dame’s perks.  The Confidential agrees (and not just because it wants to brown nose Notre Dame until it joins the ACC).

Second, ACC Football Rx has its preseason projections out.  At first, I thought there were a lot of ties for a sport that has an overtime.  But then I realized the formula being used.  Anyway, the website is projecting Florida State and Virginia Tech, which is incredibly hard NOT to do with most ACC seasons.  Anyway, check out the team-by-team analysis too.

Third, poor Maryland is trying to figure out how its angered the football gods, which is obvious given the # of injuries that have befallen the team.  The Friedgen Curse obviously.  As the Confidential commented over there, the football Gods LOVE mediocre coaches.  That is a blog discussion unto itself.

Finally, this an oldie, but a goodie.   A Northwestern blog, Sipping on Purple, had a great analysis of private schools and their football success.  It certainly demonstrates how Northwestern’s performance has been respectable on the field.  And off, unlike superior performing Miami and USC.  The blog does point out that Boston College has had a pretty nice performance run.  Of course, B.C. then went out and stunk up the joint last year.  So, so much for that.  But, with all the private schools in the ACC, this is a good read.

Enjoy!

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Ranking the ACC Out-of-Conference Schedules

The 14 ACC schools certainly have different scheduling philosophies for out-of-conference games.  However, there is not one team that has a truly embarrassing slate, especially relative to the program at issue.  Here is the Confidential’s ranking of teams and the degree of difficulty for their OOC schedules:

Syracuse–USC and Missouri.  That alone puts them atop the list.  Add in Northwestern and Minnesota as two more BCS-level opponents.  Even Stony Brook is a high-level FCS opponent.  Syracuse gets the AC/DC Honorary “Big Balls” Award.

Miami–Kansas State, South Florida and Notre Dame are three high quality opponents.  Only Bethune-Cookman is a sure win.

Florida State–Florida and South Florida are very challenging opponents.  And FSU gets points for being willing to schedule West Virginia, even though that game was cancelled due to West Virginia fleeing the Big East.

Clemson–Auburn and South Carolina are two high-quality OOC opponents also.  Ball State may be tricky too.

Boston College: Notre Dame and Northwestern will be challenges.  Maine is good for an FCS program.  Army may or may not be good.

Virginia–Penn State was supposed to be the key game, but that is now weaker. TCU remains as a very tough opponent though.  Louisiana Tech and Richmond round out the schedule.

Pitt: Virginia Tech and Notre Dame are tough opponents.  Youngstown State and Gardner-Webb mean two FCS opponents.  Buffalo is not an overly difficult game for OOC #5.

Virginia Tech–returned to its Big East roots with games and Pitt and Cincinnati.  The other games are against Bowling Green and Austin Peay.  Meh.

Maryland–West Virginia and UConn, which gives Maryland the edge over NC State.  Temple is not a shabby third OOC game.  William and Mary round out the schedule.

North Carolina State–Tennessee and UConn will be OK opponents, but this is not the Tennessee of the 1990s and UConn did not exist back then.  South Alabama and Citadel are decent for their mid-major/FCS levels, respectively.

Georgia Tech–Georgia is always tough.  Brigham Young may or may not be a challenge, but Middle Tennessee State and Presbyterian are not going to be.

Wake Forest–Notre Dame will be tough, and you can never look past Vanderbilt.  Army and Liberty are also on the schedule.

Duke–Besides Stanford, the Blue Devils play a soft Florida International, Memphis, and North Carolina Central.

North Carolina–Louisville will be good, but Idaho, Elon, and East Carolina are underwhelming.  North Carolina gets the Beck Honorary “Loser” Award for 2012.  [And let’s not talk scandal either.]

Notre Dame, the Orange Bowl, and the ACC

Previously, the Confidential noted that the ACC signed a new deal with the Orange Bowl securing its status within the power structure of college football.  Of course, the most important aspect was that the ACC gets to keep the TV revenue.  The latest word is that Notre Dame is in discussions with the Orange Bowl to make regular appearances.  There is also Internet talk as to whether Notre Dame is considering a relationship with the ACC that would allow several games a year between ACC teams and the Fighting Irish.  This is, again, all good news for the ACC.

First, the decision to pair up Notre Dame with the Orange Bowl makes complete sense.  For the Orange Bowl, a 10-2 Notre Dame team trumps any other ten-win team in the country and most 11 win teams.  Even if Notre Dame is unfairly selected, the buzz alone will be worth the trouble.  People will care, even if it is simply to root against Notre Dame.  For the ACC, having Notre Dame as an opponent makes great sense too.  Notre Dame is located in Indiana, but the heart of its fan base is nationwide and certainly heavy along the Eastern seaboard–locations where the ACC has a presence.  Given that the ACC controls the TV revenue, having a 10-2 Notre Dame in the game is much more lucrative than just about any other conceivable opponent.  For Notre Dame, it once again shows that it can remain fully relevant without the shackles of a full-time conference affiliation.  All it has to do is win 10 games and it is in a lucrative bowl.  And if it does better, it will not be in the Orange Bowl, but playing for a national title.  A classic win-win, albeit a win-win-win.

Second, the ClemsonInsider (www.clemsoninsider.com) has the following interesting snippet posted:

For several months TheClemsonInsider.com has been telling its members that the chances of Notre Dame joining the ACC were much higher than Clemson leaving for the Big 12.  The ACC has been courting the Irish for a long time but those discussions picked up over the past few months as we’ve reported.

TheClemsonInsider.com has now confirmed with sources close to the situation that the discussions have progressed to the point where Presidents from a number of ACC schools are having discussions with Notre Dame to try to finalize a deal.  The ACC Presidents would love for the Irish to join the ACC as a full member, but they are also interested in other alternatives that could help the league.

Having Notre Dame play four games a year against ACC opponents is yet another win-win.  For ACC teams, having Notre Dame visit is always going to be lucrative at the gate and on television.  It is also helpful for scheduling strength.  Further, it prevents the Big 12 landing Notre Dame in a similar relationship.  For Notre Dame, scheduling is going to get more complex in the future–having an agreement with the ACC will allow more flexibility in that regard.  And, given that Notre Dame often plays at least a few ACC teams per year, there is really not that much of a change.

Of course, it remains to be seen how these two discussions work together.  The potential for a rematch in the Orange Bowl could pose some problems.

But, overall, it looks like Notre Dame is warming up to the ACC as a partner in multiple ways.  While Notre Dame as a full-time member would go a long way towards fixing all that ails the ACC, the ACC is going to have to slow dance with Notre Dame for a while.  Hopefully, it works out better for the ACC than it did for the Big East.  Fortunately, the monetary benefit is far greater for the ACC to do so.

ACC: No Need to Panic, But Perhaps a Little Desperation May Be in Order

This Florida State to the Big XII stuff may not have much truth to it.  But where there is smoke, there may be fire.  And Florida State fans are just delusional enough to think that it’s everyone’s fault but their own that are a mediocre football school.  Delusional fans have led to conference switches in Missouri and Texas A&M.  That is reason enough for the ACC to perhaps not panic, but consider that this is THE TIME to do everything possible to keep Florida State happy.  If Florida State leaves, the whole party could come crashing down, with the SEC and Big 10 smelling blood.

Now, the ACC can play the Big East role and just hope that it does not hurt too much.  Or it can get proactive.  And, by proactive, that means ensuring that the conference remains football relevant.  If Florida State wants something–give it to them. So if I am running the ACC, I think the time has come to make a sweetheart offer to Notre Dame.  Specifically–offer Notre Dame and Navy membership as a package.

This converts a must-play game for ND into a conference game.  I know Navy is close to Maryland, but is Navy REALLY a threat to ever be a serious player with their admissions limitations?  And it is not like Navy is an inferior academic institution.  The only issue is basketball–and does that really matter in this big picture?  The goal is to keep the football schools happy for once.  Navy fits the geographical profile.

Then, go back to an 8-game schedule.  This allows FSU to schedule another home game, etc.  Again, the ACC favoring the football teams.  ND and Navy can each schedule 4 OOC games too.  That allows ND to schedule USC, plus three other games.  Navy gets Army, Air Force, and two more.

The loss of a 9-game schedule means 7 less games.  But adding Navy and ND adds in 8 more games (if calculating correctly).  Anyway, when you are talking adding ND, that has to add to the value of the conference slate.  Plus, Navy is no slouch either.  If you are ESPN and you can get Notre Dame into the mix, I am sure you can increase the ACC payout, plus perhaps allow some third-tier rights to stay with the schools.  The damage to NBC alone has to have some value.  We are talking Notre Dame here.

Why would ND do this?  They probably would not.  But if they did, it would be because:

  1. ND would get scheduling flexibility that no other conference could offer
  2. ND gets to have games from Boston to Miami and all points within.  Games against Syracuse can be played in NYC every other time.  Games against Pitt can be played in Philly every few times.  Games against Navy in DC.
  3. ND gets a place for its other sports that is far superior to the Big East.  ND basketball gets games against Duke, UNC, Syracuse, Pitt, Maryland, etc.  ND alums get a few games in Florida and the south.
  4. ND lacrosse joins up with Syracuse, Virginia, Duke, UNC, and Maryland.  Pretty darn good too.

It may be a pipe dream, but the ACC has something that no other conference has–access to the major media markets on the East Coast.  The ACC also has the potential for high-quality football.  Throw in outstanding academics and a fair balance of private/public schools and you have a reasonable fit for Notre Dame.  Willingness to take Navy would be the best way of ensuring the scheduling flexibility to keep ND fans happy.

Or, the ACC can sit on its hands and hope that some combination of Notre Dame, UConn, and Rutgers will someday appeal to Notre Dame.  But the ACC may not be football relevant at that point.  And football irrelevance would convert the ACC into the Big East 2.0–and that will never lure Notre Dame in.

So it is now or never.  If the ACC has any lure for Notre Dame, the time has come to use it.

Bowl Predictions: First 3 ACC bowl games

It’s time for bowl predictions for the first 3 ACC bowl games, which will feature North Carolina, North Carolina State, and Florida State.  Although it will still be a while before the ACC bowl season kicks off, it is still bowl season eve, as a few mid-majors will get things started on Saturday.  Without further adieu, here are the first thee predictions.

On December 26, the North Carolina Tar Heels (7-5) will travel to Shreveport, Louisiana to take on Missouri (7-5).  This will be an interesting game as Missouri will bring the #11 rushing game in FBS into a game against the #14 rushing defense in North Carolina.  Something will have to give there.  If you look deeper at Missouri, you see a team that lost at Arizona State… and then to tough Big XII foes Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Baylor, and Kansas State.  Not a bad loss there.  Of course, no great wins either.  Similarly, the Tar Heels really did not upset any team all year.  At the same time, all of their losses were to bowl teams.  There is not a lot jumping off the page in terms of distinguishing these teams.  The overall toughness of the Big XII suggests that Missouri will be more battle tested.  Prediction: Missouri 28-North Carolina 17.

On December 27, North Carolina State ambles into Charlotte for its Belk Bowl matchup against Louisville.  Both teams finished 7-5 on the season.  However, Louisville started the season 2-4, only to finish strong with a 5-1 second-half.  This also occurred right around the time that Louisville switched offensive coordinators and Freshman QB Teddy Bridgewater stepped up his game.  Louisville’s defense was very tough all year.  The teams had two common opponents.  Cincinnati beat North Carolina State 44-14, but only beat Louisville 25-16.  On the other hand, North Carolina beat Louisville 14-7, but lost to North Carolina State 13-0.  Charlie Strong has put together an outstanding coaching staff at Louisville and will have several weeks to prepare.  Still, the Confidential thinks that North Carolina State will end up with a de facto home field advantage.  And they were 6-1 at home this year, losing only to Georgia Tech.  Prediction: North Carolina State 24-Louisville 20. 

On December 29, Florida State and Notre Dame will square off in a rematch of some great battles of the 1990’s.  However, these aren’t your older brother’s Notre Dame and Florida State teams.  Both teams head to Orlando with 8-4 records.  Nevertheless, these are two of the so-called “Kings” of college football.  Florida State will present Notre Dame with a very stingy defense that is 6th in the country.  Where Florida State struggles is offense, slotting in the bottom half.  Notre Dame is just outside the top quartile in both of those categories.  This is a very tough game to predict, but Notre Dame’s propensity for turnover implosions seems like the deciding factor here.  Prediction: Florida State 21–Notre Dame 13.

These are three very tough games.  (Already got the excuses ready).  Feel free to share your agreement or disagreement.  Just do so before the game ends…

 

Expansion Sooner?

The Big XII’s decision to accept West Virginia to get to 10 schools seemingly does not involve the ACC.  To be sure, The Confidential was a bit more supportive than others of the ACC taking a look at pairing West Virginia with Notre Dame someday.  But most prognosticators believed Rutgers or UConn to be the extra-point to any future addition of Notre Dame.

Where this DOES impact the ACC is that West Virginia is reportedly confident that it can leave the Big East in time to join the Big XII for 2012.   That is news.  There is talk that this is an issue that can be resolved by sheer money, with Pitt being offered the chance to leave earlier for $21 million.  It is difficult to envision a scenario where $21 million is a sensible amount to pay to leave 17 months early.  However, this does suggest that Pitt and Syracuse may be able to extract themselves from the Big East sooner than expected.  If so, the ACC will be “whole” in time for 2012.

There is little doubt that the ACC has contingency plans in place for a 2012 start to a 14-team ACC.  It may actually happen.

The Notre Dame Elephant

The proverbial elephant in the conference realignment room remains: Notre Dame.  If Notre Dame says it is ready to join a conference, you can expect the Big 10 and the ACC to start recruiting.  Notre Dame to the conferences is like Lebron James times Sid Crosby to the power of Peyton Manning.  The reasons why the Big 10 and the ACC would want Notre Dame do not need to be listed.

But why would Notre Dame consider the ACC?

Well, we all know that Notre Dame is not on the Atlantic Coast.  Or near it.  Or near ANY coast for that matter.  So there is a poor geographic fit, compared to the Big 10.

Also, Notre Dame has a history of playing the nearby Big 10 schools, especially Michigan, Michigan St. and Purdue.  And the ACC cannot match the Big 10 and its lucrative Big 10 network dollar-for-dollar.

However, contrary to the opinions of your garden-variety Internet troll, Notre Dame is not all about the money.  Notre Dame is all about its football independence.  Notre Dame’s NBC contract allows it to remain independent.  They would get a a raise jumping to the Big 10.  But that would compromise football independence.

Why does Notre Dame care about football independence?  Because it sees itself as a national school.  They want to be seen in the Northeast, Southeast, Southwest, and West.  Their main rival is USC–a home and home between California and South Bend.  They are going to play Navy every year.  A game that gives them some visibility in the mid-Atlantic.  They want games in New York City, as evidenced by agreements to play Army and Syracuse in that market.  They will gladly play against Boston College, Stanford, Texas, Georgia Tech,  and Miami.  When you are not confined to a conference schedule, you have the freedom to play a unique schedule every year.  This is HUGE.  It is huge for the alumni.  It is huge for recruiting.  It is Notre Dame.

This is also a strength of the ACC.  The ACC stretches from Boston to Miami.  Notre Dame’s home games cover the Midwest.  It’s away games could include, in any season, trips to Boston, New York City (Syracuse or UConn or Rutgers), the DC area, the Carolinas, Atlanta, and Florida.  That is quite a stretch of real estate.  Throw in a game against USC in California and you’ve got the West coast.  Perhaps when home against USC, Notre Dame could schedule the Navy game for San Diego or play Stanford or Washington.   They already have Texas on the OOC slate.

In the Big 10, Notre Dame would get its 6 or 7 home games, with perhaps only Penn State representing an opportunity to get East Coast viewership.  The addition of Rutgers with Notre Dame would help.  But that is still 9 or 10 games with a Midwest focus.  I have to give the edge to the ACC.

Academically, both the Big 10 and ACC are excellent.  The Big 10 is primarily state schools that focus on research.  The Notre Dame philosophy is closer to Syracuse in that regard than Northwestern (who does several times more research than Notre Dame or Syracuse).  Plus, an ACC with Notre Dame would have several private schools.  The fit is there for Notre Dame.

Nobody knows if or when Notre Dame will join any conference, much less the ACC.  But the ACC has a very real chance of landing Notre Dame someday…

West Virginia to the Big XII?

Nobody can call this a surprise.  I have never quite understood why the Big XII would select Louisville–a relative newcomer to competitive football–over a school with the history of West Virginia. West Virginia has equivalent academics, an entire state fanbase with no real competition, good basketball, and football on a level to compete with anyone (except Syracuse, apparently).

The disappointing thing is that I am sure that Syracuse and Pitt would have loved to see West Virginia join Notre Dame in moving the ACC to 16 teams someday.  While West Virginia’s academics are subpar, Notre Dame would make up for that.  Plus, it is not hard to salivate over a conference division like this:

  • North: BC, Pitt, Syracuse, West Virginia, ND, Virginia, Va Tech, and Maryland
  • South: Duke, NC, Wake Forest, NC State, Clemson, Ga Tech, FSU, and Miami.

That surely would have made FSU and Clemson happy.  A strong commitment to football. The single greatest threat to the ACC is either (a) the Big Ten wooing Maryland or Va Tech; or (b) the SEC wooing Florida State or Va Tech.  Anything that can keep the football powers (historically, if not recently) happy is good for the entire conference.  While Rutgers may have superior academics and UConn has superior basketball, it is West Virginia that is best suited to placate the football schools.

Of course, Notre Dame has not let out any suggestion that it is ready to give up treasured football independence.  If they are even a few steps away from considering a conference affiliation for football, it is being done entirely behind the scenes. It sure does not seem imminent.

And… it would be naive to think that West Virginia to the Big XII would be permanent.  As long as Texas and Oklahoma have wandering eyes, that conference will always be the least stable conference not named the Big East.  So the ND/WVU dream scenario can always resume in 2018 or 2025 or whenever.

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