The Confidential

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21 Sep 2012

Notre Dame, Penn State and the ACC: Part I

Over at Frank the Tank’s blog, the great commentariat has been analyzing whether the Big 10 expansion to include Nebraska was sufficient.  One of the topics being thrown around is whether Penn State would leave the Big 10 if it did not get a conference partner in the region, such as Rutgers.  Needless to say, the ideas that Penn State would leave the Big 10 or that adding Rutgers to the Big 10 would improve the conference led to a vigorous response.  However, the Confidential cannot help but wonder whether the Notre Dame addition to the ACC could help justify the addition of Penn State.

As a preliminary matter, the Confidential needs to begin by clearly stating that Penn State is not at all likely to leave the Big 10.  How can it?  Penn State gains on so many levels from its Big 10 membership that it would be difficult for any leader to recommend such a move.  And, oh yeah, the money is pretty darn good too.  How does a leader recommend a revenue cut in these tough economic times?  Good luck with that.  So we are delving into the borderline impossible here.

Of course, imagining a football conference with ND, Penn State, Pitt, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Virginia, Syracuse, and BC in the North…wow.  That sure would have to be the “football” move that schools like Florida State and Clemson would love, right?   Penn State will be down for several years, but the school has the infrastructure to be immediately relevant again.  Too much talent in Pennsylvania for Penn State to NOT be a great program.  With a purely geographical split, play 7 division games, plus 2 crossovers… and now you are playing every school, every four years.  It’s hard not to get excited by that.  Increased attendance by having division games with regional appeal.   Increased TV ratings with having more hated rivals on the schedule.

The Confidential questions whether the Grant of Rights is the reason why a Penn State a move to the ACC is impossible.  As the Confidential understands it, the Grant of Rights means that the TV rights to Penn State’s home games belong to the Big 10 for many years.  So, in theory, if Penn State left the Big 10 for the ACC, that Florida State @ Penn State game would be a featured game for the Big 10 Network that week.  And Penn State would get none of that revenue.  Of course, the Big 10 Network would never be foolish enough to pass up that game.  You think Florida State fans would not have an interest in the Big 10 Network that weekend?  Actually, Penn State going to the ACC would be a big boost for the Big 10 Network if that’s where all Penn State’s home games were televised for 20 years.  Penn State fans would still get to see those home games on TV.

True, the ACC would lose the right to receive the TV revenue from Penn State home games until the Grant of Rights expired.  HOWEVER, the ACC just reached a deal with Notre Dame that allows for 2-3 home games for ACC teams.  And the thought process is that this will ADD value to the ACC contract.  The Confidential cannot help but wonder… if 2-3 home games per year featuring Notre Dame adds value to  the TV contract, wouldn’t 4-5 road games at ACC sites featuring Penn State add to the ACC contract too?  From the ACC’s perspective the Grant of Rights is not any worse than the Notre Dame deal.

So the only real question is how to make it work for Penn State.  If they are leaving the Big 10, they are losing their Big 10 revenue.  Instead, they would be getting a partial share of the ACC TV revenue, which is far worse for them than a full share of the Big 10 revenue.  Again, no university could ever accept that.  Unless the ACC schools were willing to give Penn State a full share while awaiting the expiration of the Grant of Rights–which would still be quite a revenue shave for Penn State–it is simply impossible to fathom how Penn State could make such a move.

So the only way to make this work is for the ACC to do something truly radical.

In Part II of this article, the Confidential will explore whether there is a radical way for the ACC to finance the unrealistic, nearly impossible, and purely hypothetical addition of Penn State.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment, Football and tagged , , , , , ,
20 Sep 2012

Reports: Orange Bowl Deal Finalized

CBS Sportsline is reporting that the Orange Bowl deal has been finalized.  According to the report: “The ACC champion will play the highest-ranked team among Notre Dame and available teams from the SEC and Big Ten beginning after the 2014 season.  As the article notes, this deal secures the ACC within the five power conferences that will be dividing most of the college football money.

Left unsaid, of course, is how it will be determined that an SEC or Big Ten team is “available.”  Nevertheless, even the 3rd or 4th best team in these two conferences will present an outstanding gate/matchup for the Orange Bowl.  Georgia-Virginia Tech anyone?  Clemson-Nebraska?  Florida State-Michigan?  LSU-Miami?  Notre Dame-Wisconsin?  Yeah, the ACC and the Orange Bowl will be fine.

The report also notes at length the way the playoff structure will work in just a few years.  There will be ample tie-ins for the 5 major conferences, and then six more slots reserved for all teams.  If it is 6 SEC teams in the top 12, so be it.  If it is 3 teams from the Big East, so be it.  Everyone will have the same access and it will be filled based on merit.  Or, at the very least, the merit as determined by human beings.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference News, Football, Orange Bowl and tagged , , , , ,
20 Sep 2012

ACC Football Predictions for Week 4

The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams.

Last week was a bit better at 10-1… making it a 28-8 start to the season.  On to week 4,where things will get a little tougher matchup-wise:

September 22, 2012

Bowling Green (1-2) @ Virginia Tech (2-1), noon.  Virginia Tech has to be embarrassed by last week.  The last time the Hokies were embarrassed (James Madison), they won 11 straight.  You cannot predict a loss here.  Prediction: Virginia Tech 33, Bowling Green 14.

Maryland (2-1) @ #8 West Virginia (2-0), noon.   The records say “close game.”  The names have historically suggested “close game.”  While West Virginia has played nobody so far, Maryland’s 2-1 is more imaginary than a cartoon character seeing a mirage of an oasis in the desert.  The only question is whether West Virginia agrees to a running clock in the second half.  Prediction: West Virginia 49, Maryland 10.

Virginia (2-1) @ #17 TCU (2-0), noon.  Before the season, this looked like an upset special.  But Virginia has been underwhelming.  Sure, TCU has to play at 11:00 a.m. local time.  That might help keep it close.  Prediction: TCU 30, Virginia 20.

Army (0-2) @ Wake Forest (2-1), 12:30 p.m.  Wake Forest need not be embarrassed by last week’s loss to Florida State.  They need to forget about it and move on.  This is a team that can win 8 or 9 games if things go right.  It all starts against Army.  Prediction: Wake Forest 21, Army 10.

Miami (2-1) @ Georgia Tech (2-1), 3:00 p.m.  Georgia Tech narrowly lost to a now-questionable Virginia Tech, and looked great in pasting Virginia.  Miami was obliterated by Kansas State, who was only OK against North Texas.  Miami did beat Boston College.  Everything about this suggests Georgia Tech.  Hmmm…. but the Confidential would never place an actual bet on this game.  A hunch that Miami will win–there always seems to be one Georgia Tech or Miami game that is entirely unpredictable.  This may be it.  Despite that, with all meekness and shame, the official prediction is Georgia Tech 38, Miami 34 (OT).

Gardner-Webb (0-3) @ Pitt (1-2), 3:30 p.m.  Given that few teams have ever lost to an FCS team once, the odds of Pitt losing to two FCS teams one year is pretty slim.  The win over Va Tech means that if the impossible does happen, the coaching staff would survive to the following Monday.  What would have been an “absolute must win” becomes merely a “must win.”  They have to, right?  Prediction: Pitt 35, Gardner-Webb 10.

East Carolina (2-1) @ North Carolina (1-2), 3:30 p.m.  Once upon a time there was a colony named Carolina.  And then it divided into North Carolina and East Carolina.  And that’s how East Carolina became the 14th colony.  Look it up.  Anyway, returning to reality… North Carolina rallied nicely against Louisville and only barely lost to Wake Forest.  East Carolina has looked decent too.  This could be a very good game.  Prediction: North Carolina 31, East Carolina 21.

Memphis (0-3) @ Duke (2-1), 6:00 p.m.  This game is the opposite of FSU-Clemson.  Memphis is one of the worst football teams in FBS.  Anyone willing to bet lunch money on them being a top FCS team?  Did not think so.   Memphis has lost to three teams called Tennessee-Martin, Arkansas State, and Middle Tennessee State (bonus points if you know which one was the FCS school).  Meanwhile, Duke has hardly been a football powerhouse.  But Duke has scored 50 points per game in its two wins.  That’s 50 per game!  Big 10 basketball teams wish they could score like that!  No reason for that trend to stop now.  Prediction: Duke 50, Memphis 21 17 20ish (does it matter?).

Citadel (3-0) @ North Carolina State (2-1), 6:00 p.m.  North Carolina State is a good FBS team.  Citadel (is it The Citadel or not?) is a good FCS team.  This one may be closer than desired for a while, but NC State should pull away right about the time everyone is ready to switch over to the big game of the night.  Prediction: North Carolina State 34, Citadel 17.

Syracuse (1-2) @ Minnesota (3-0), 8:00 p.m.  Minnesota’s three wins are not that impressive: UNLV in OT, New Hampshire, and Western Michigan.  But Syracuse’s one win was even less impressive, and that U.S.C. loss now looks less like a “moral victory.”  Nobody should be surprised if Syracuse wins.  But the Confidential has to ignore the heart and recognize the brain saying “home team wins.”  Prediction: Minnesota 31, Syracuse 28.

#10 Clemson (3-0) @ #4 Florida State (3-0), 8:00 p.m.  Clemson looked great in defeating Auburn (suspect win now), Ball State (meh), and Furman (sub-meh).  Florida State has looked outstanding in defeating Murray State (yawn), Savannah State (running clock anyone?), and Wake Forest (nice).  Florida State has outscored its opponents by something like 176-3.  They are on pace to give up 12 points.  14 if they win out.  When Florida State was great, it was defense.  The glory days ended in 2001.  From 1987 to 2000, Florida State allowed 200 or more points in just 4 seasons.  And three of those were 206 points or less.  See here.  From 2001 to 2011, Florida State allowed less than 200 points only twice.  You get the picture.

The Confidential appreciates that Clemson has two mega-playmakers in Boyd and Watkins.  But Florida State should be able to, at the very least, contain them.  The real question will be whether Florida State can put up points against Clemson.  Given that FSU is averaging 60 points a game, while Clemson allowed 23 PPG to Auburn and Ball State, FSU should be able to score enough.  This is FSU’s time to return to glory.  The Seminoles just need to reach out and grab it, avoiding the self-inflicted wounds of the past.  Also, if Swofford has any common sense at all… Florida State should get a few calls this time.  Prediction: Florida State 34, Clemson 23.

The Confidential apologizes in advance for not picking your team.  There is also a lot of chalk here.  However, predictions are made to be accurate, not controversial.  Feel free to share why we are wrong. 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
19 Sep 2012

ACC To Determine Notre Dame’s 5 Football Opponents

The announcement of the ACC partnership with Notre Dame was accompanied by news that Notre Dame would play 5 opponents per year, as well as every team every there years.  ACC commissioner John Swofford explained recently that the ACC, rather than Notre Dame, will have the decision as to which 5 opponents Notre Dame plays every year:

Q: How will you allocate the five Notre Dame football games to your conference members?

A: It’s up to the ACC to do that. Notre Dame will accept whatever five games the ACC gives them on any given year. Conceptually what we intend to do is rotate through the entire membership — 14 schools for those five games. We do have some teams that currently have contracts with Notre Dame and we need to take a look at that. We would like to accomplish this without disrupting those particular games that are currently under contract. But once we reach a clean point the idea is to rotate the games through the membership. So that every school knows they will get Notre Dame once every three years either in their home stadium or at Notre Dame.

This, of course, is notably different from the Notre Dame “promise” to schedule 3 games a year against Big East teams.  What has been negotiated is Notre Dame limiting itself to 7 games it can schedule and leaving the rest up to the ACC.

While nobody should be under the illusion that the ACC will make these scheduling decisions in total disregard for Notre Dame’s interests, the bottom line is that the deal between the ACC and Notre Dame is quite an acquiescence by Notre Dame.  After all, Notre Dame could have requested the right to determine its opponents each year.  In any event, this allows the ACC to schedule every team, every three years… plus allow one team to play Notre Dame twice in that period.

It will be interesting to see how this impacts the already-existing contracts between Notre Dame and ACC schools.  Even Swofford has no idea how that will work out yet.  Stay tuned.

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference News, Conference Realignment, Football and tagged , , , , ,
18 Sep 2012
1 Comment

Orange Bowl Details Still Being Finalized

As reported last week, the Orange Bowl is looking to set itself up with an ACC team on one side and Notre Dame/SEC/Big 10 on the other.  ESPN is now reporting that a deal is close–details are being discussed as to how to make the determination of opponent.  This is important to the ACC, which owns the TV rights to the game.  Locking up the valuable ND/SEC/B1g trio will be huge for marketing purposes.

The interesting thing is that Notre Dame’s arrangement means that they could be on either side of the game.  If, for example, Florida State is a playoff team, the Orange Bowl could select the ACC runner-up–say a 10-3 Virginia Tech team to play a 10-2 Notre Dame team.  Or, if Virginia Tech played the Orange Bowl the year before, perhaps it would select 10-2 Notre Dame to be the ACC team and have the Irish play a team like Wisconsin, Nebraska, Ohio State, Michigan, Florida, Auburn, South Carolina, etc.  The flexibility of the Orange Bowl will give it additional marketability.  To be sure, Virginia Tech getting bumped in that example will be controversial.  But the financial rewards for the conference as a whole will be significant.

What is clear is that the Orange Bowl will NOT be an ACC vs. Big East game.  And, for that, the Confidential is pleased.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference News, Football, Orange Bowl and tagged , , , , , ,
18 Sep 2012
2 Comments

The Confidential’s College Football Top 25 & Bottom 4: Week 3

Each week, the Confidential will provide its ranking of the top 25 teams in College Football, as well as the Bottom 4 BCS-level teams.  Here is the Week 4 version, with analysis of the top 15 and bottom 4:

  1. Alabama (3-0): Alabama finally gets the #1 spot in this poll.  Apologies for the delay in recognizing USC’s flaws.  52-0 over Arkansas?  Next up: Florida Atlantic.
  2. Florida State (3-0): The Seminoles have beaten their three opponents by a combined 176-3.  A huge test against Clemson looms.  Next up: Clemson.
  3. LSU (3-0):  The Tigers played Oregon last year, and then Washington and Idaho this year.  Is Montana next?  Next up: @ Auburn.
  4. Oklahoma (2-0): Oklahoma had the week off.  Good for them.  Next up: Kansas State.
  5. Oregon (3-0): The Ducks haven’t really beaten anyone yet.  But it is hard to see anyone being favored to beat them in the Pac-12.  Next up: Arizona.
  6. Clemson (3-0): Clemson handled Furman as easily as they should.  See how that works Arkansas and Auburn?   Next up: @ Florida State.
  7. Georgia (3-0): The Bulldogs got to beat up on Florida Atlantic.  Mission accomplished.  Next up: Vanderbilt.
  8. West Virginia (2-0): Some guy named Jim Madison could not beat West Virginia.  The Mountaineers need to be tested.  Next up: Maryland.
  9. South Carolina (3-0): The Gamecocks dispatched with U.A.B. with little stress.  Now they get to host the Tigers.  Guess which one!!!   Next up: Missouri.
  10. Kansas State (3-0): Kansas State did OK against North Texas.  A bit of a let down after dominating Miami.  Things get real tough this week.  Next up: @ Oklahoma.
  11. Michigan (2-1): As good as Alabama has looked, and as poor as the Big 10 has looked, is Michigan the class of the conference?  We’ll find out soon.  Next up: @ Notre Dame.
  12. Notre Dame (2-1): The Fighting Irish celebrated their ACC partnership by defeating Sparty on the road.  They return this week to host Big Brother.  Next up: Michigan.
  13. Louisville (3-0): Which Louisville team should be judged–the one that jumped up 35-6 against UNC or the one that narrowly won?  No idea either.  Next up: Florida International
  14. Stanford (3-0): With another win over USC, Stanford moves up into the top 15.  No Gerhart, no Luck, no matter.  Next up: @ Washington.
  15. Florida (3-0): The Gators may or may not be “back,” but they are 2-0 in conference.  A win at Tennessee is always nice.  Next up: Kentucky.
  16. Texas (3-0). Next up: @ Oklahoma State.
  17. USC (2-1). Next up: California.
  18. Ohio State (3-0).  Next up: UAB.
  19. TCU (3-0).  Next up: Virginia.
  20. Michigan State (2-1). Next up: E. Michigan.
  21. UCLA (3-0). Next up: Oregon State.
  22. Northwestern (3-0). Next up: South Dakota.
  23. Arizona (3-0).  Next up: @ Oregon.
  24. Mississippi State (3-0).  Next up: South Alabama.
  25. Virginia Tech (2-1). Next up: Bowling Green.

* * *

121.  Kentucky (1-2).  Losing to a Sun Belt program?  SEC teams should not lose to Sun Belt programs.  What are you doing with all that TV revenue and basketball gate cash???

122. Arkansas (1-2).  Wow… 52-0 to Alabama AT HOME?  A week after dropping a game to an FCS foe?  Arkansas is in trouble right now.  Big time.

123. Kansas (1-2).  While Kansas played well against TCU, all things considered, they are still 1-2 and the teams behind them both won.

124.  Colorado (0-3).  There is only one team in all of the BCS conferences that is winless.  It’s Colorado.

So there it is.  If you do not like it… sorry.  But feel free to share your reasons why…

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , ,
17 Sep 2012
5 Comments

ACC Football Rankings: September 17, 2012

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Unfortunately, after a tough week, most teams have their spot in the standings because of what the other teams did–not because they earned it.  Oh well… this is how the Confidential ranks the ACC football teams as of September 17, 2012:

1.  Florida State (3-0)–The Confidential does not like sliding Clemson down coming off a win, but Florida State just destroyed a good Wake Forest team.  On the season, the Seminoles have outscored their opponents 176-3.  Clemson can prove the Confidential wrong on the field.

2. Clemson (3-0)–Clemson is the only other undefeated team left in the ACC.  And they travel to Florida State this week.  Speaking the obvious, only one team leaves that game undefeated.  With this #2 ranking, the Confidential is leaning Florida State.

3. Georgia Tech (2-1)–Georgia Tech gets this spot by default.  They lost to Virginia Tech on the road… true.  But Va Tech lost to a reeling Pitt squad.  And Georgia Tech looked great against Virginia.

4. Virginia Tech (2-1)–No excuse for the Pitt loss.  This is a game that Virginia Tech has to win if the ACC is Virginia Tech wants to someday be listed among the “kings” of college football.  Another September disappointment.

5. Wake Forest (2-1)–The Demon Deacons just lost 52-0.  And they get the edge over other teams.  Why?  The best win–over North Carolina.  Ugh.

6. North Carolina State (2-1)–A coin flip separates all these 2-1 teams.  North Carolina State’s loss to Tennessee is not awful, and the win over UConn is nice.  Still…

7. Miami (2-1)–Miami’s implosion against Kansas State still leaves a stench.  But Virginia barely beat a very down Penn State team.

8. Virginia (2-1)–Virginia looked vulnerable against Penn State.  Then they proved it against Georgia Tech.

9. Duke (2-1)–Duke was terrible against Stanford, but they do have 2 wins.  After letting its coach lose to his former school, Maryland deserves to be at the bottom of the 2-1 teams.

10. Maryland (2-1)–See above.  Maryland does not deserve to be ranked higher than anyone else that is 2-1.

11.  Pitt (1-2)–Of the four 1-2 teams, Pitt has the worst loss.   Of the four 1-2 teams, Pitt has the best win.  Edge to Pitt.

12. North Carolina (1-2)–The remaining three ACC teams have only beaten an FCS foe, while losing to two BCS-level teams.  The Tar Heels were most convincing in their win.

13. Syracuse (1-2)(tie)–Syracuse won and dropped several spots in the standings.  Why?  Because they beat an FCS foe by 11 points and USC looks to be a shadow of what was expected.

13. Boston College (1-2)(tie)–Boston College doesn’t deserve to be #14.  They lost to Northwestern on the road, while Syracuse lost at home.  However, BC lost to Miami at home, while Syracuse lost to USC on a neutral site.  Although BC beat its FCS for with more ease, Syracuse had to play its FCS foe after the emotional USC game.  So there it is… a tie.

Do you agree with these rankings?  If not, let us know.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
16 Sep 2012

ACC Football Week 3 Recap

Well, with Week 3 in the books, here is how it all went down in ACC-land:

GOOD NEWS:

Florida State looks to be for real.  The Seminoles destroyed Wake Forest, 52-0, to avenge last year’s disappointing loss.  If you are keeping score at home, Florida State has scored 176 points and allowed 3.  That will work.  Things get tougher next week with Clemson visiting–but it’s looking like the 1990s for the Seminoles.  This result was awful for Wake Forest, but it’s better for the ACC to have Florida State return to its dominating ways than have a bunch of teams win 7 games.  And Wake Forest will be fine this year–this was not a win anyone should have expected.

Speaking of Clemson, the Tigers got to 3-0 by soundly defeating Furman, 41-7.  This sets up a huge matchup next week between what is looking like the class of the ACC–Clemson and Florida State.

Georgia Tech showed that it is a real player this year too, defeating Virginia 56-20.  As with Wake Forest, Virginia must be hugely disappointed with the effort.  Coming off last week’s nailbiter with reeling Penn State, Virginia fans had to see this coming.  For Georgia Tech, however, this win suggests that the Yellow Jackets’ offense is going to be prolific.

Miami got back to its winning ways with a 38-10 victory over Bethune-Cookman, which is nice.  Duke also moves to 2-1 with a 54-17 win over North Carolina Central.  And North Carolina State is also 2-1 after defeating South Alabama 31-7.

THE OK NEWS:

Give credit to Pittsburgh for pulling off a major turnaround and defeating Virginia Tech, 35-17.  You saw this coming?  You, sir, are a liar.  You most certainly did not see this coming.  Virginia Tech does get upset every so often in September and Pitt has talent.  But an 18-point victory for Pitt after how the first two weeks of the season transpired is just astonishing.  This would be better news, except that one now wonders about Virginia Tech.  Can the ACC let Notre Dame represent the Coastal division this year?

Syracuse finally got its first win of the season, beating Stony Brook 28-17.  That score is too close to call it “good news.”  Syracuse did put up 500+ yards of offense and Stony Brook is a very very good FCS team.  Still, you want your FCS game scores to be more like what Duke and Miami did than this.  Syracuse joins Pitt at 1-2.

THE BAD NEWS:

The Confidential suspected that Maryland was not as good as its 2-0 record suggested.  The Confidential suspected that Maryland would lose by less than a touchdown.  UConn won by 3, 24-21.   So it goes for the Terrapins.

Louisville jumped out to a 36-7 halftime lead over North Carolina, but credit the Tar Heels for making a game of it.  The final score of 39-34 shows just how much of a rally it was.  Still, North Carolina now drops to 1-2.  And this means that the 2012 Big East went 3-0 against the 2012 A.C.C. in Week 3.  Ugh.   Thankfully the ACC had a great week off the field.

On to Week #4…

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
14 Sep 2012
1 Comment

The Orange Bowl Issue

A few months ago, the SEC and Big XII announced a Championship Bowl that would add another pile of money to those conferences’ already large piles of money.  Many saw this as a sign that the ACC was relegated to second tier status as a football conference (or 19th tier, if you are a Florida State fan and looking for excuses for why the team cannot win 10 games anymore).  Some time later, the ACC announced that it had extended its relationship with the Orange Bowl AND earned the right to take the TV revenue from that game.  On the heels of that, the Confidential noted that Notre Dame would likely be a partner with the ACC in the Orange Bowl (here) or perhaps more.  Well, with the news of the ND/ACC partnership, left under-discussed was this tweet from Notre Dame’s athletic director Jack Swarbrick: “We are on track to participate in other side of the Orange Bowl along with SEC & Big Ten. Details to follow.”

This is huge news for the ACC.  Granted, the SEC or Big 10 opponent would be a #3 or #4 level opponent, but these are outstanding matchups.  With all the SEC power teams, the Orange Bowl would feature an outstanding matchup from a regional basis.  If it is a Big 10 school, Miami becomes a great vacation destination.  The Orange Bowl could see a Florida State-Nebraska game.  Of course, if both programs return to their 1990s days, they would be playing that game in the playoffs.  But assuming those teams are 9-10 win teams, that would be a great TV matchup, meaning more revenue for the ACC.  Needless to say, Notre Dame being an option is also very lucrative from a TV standpoint.  While the potential for a rematch is always there, with ND playing only 5 games, that is far from a certainty.  This, of course, is why the Orange Bowl would have the flexibility to go the B1G or SEC route.

One has to note the absence of a comment by Swarbrick regarding a Big East relationship with the Orange Bowl.  Maybe that was an oversight.  Or maybe the Orange Bowl wants nothing to do with the Big East programs.  While Louisville would probably be a good fit, as well as South Florida or Central Florida for geographic reasons, it is doubtful that an ACC-Big East matchup involving those schools would move the TV dial.  And Boise State is just too far away from Miami to think that there would be a large crowd.

In any event, ACC fans will have to continue to monitor this Orange Bowl situation.  Like the TV contract, the Orange Bowl is about ACC revenue.  The more, the better.

UPDATE: Frank the Tank is FAR more optimistic that the Orange Bowl opponent will be a high-quality SEC or B1G opponent, with the arrangement being one of timing:

The upshot of this would be that ACC #1 will be playing either Big Ten #1, SEC #1 or a highly-ranked Notre Dame team in the Orange Bowl in any given year, which will likely yield a media rights payout for the ACC that will be in line with what the Big Ten and Pac-12 are receiving for the Rose Bowl and the SEC and Big 12 are receiving for the Champions Bowl.  Thus, any chicken little beliefs that the ACC is going to end up playing subpar opponents in the Orange Bowl are going to go by the wayside.

If so, the Confidential was way off in suggesting that it would be a #3 or #4 conference representative in the Orange Bowl.  All in all, with the exception of the TV revenue flowing from the ESPN deal, ACC leadership has really rallied quite well.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference News, Football, Orange Bowl and tagged , , , ,
13 Sep 2012
1 Comment

ACC Football Predictions for Week 3

The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams.

Last week was a bit better at 10-3… making it an 18-7 start to the season.  On to week 3:

September 15, 2012

Wake Forest (2-0) @ #5 Florida State (2-0), noon.  Florida State has not played a competent foe yet, and Wake Forest has had the Seminoles’ number.  Still, this might be the year that Florida State returns to the glory days of the 1990s.  Prediction: Florida State 30, Wake Forest 17.

#13 Virginia Tech (2-0) @ Pittsburgh (0-2), noon.  Pitt is a disaster right now.  They looked woefully undercoached against Cincinnati.  Virginia Tech usually does not have that problem.  This is a bit of a “rivarly” game, so maybe Pitt will rally.  Nah.  Prediction: Virginia Tech 28, Pitt 13.

Bethune-Cookman (2-0 FCS) @ Miami (1-1), noon.  Miami was exposed by Kansas State.  But the Hurricanes will protect their home turf against this FCS foe.  Prediction: Miami 40, Bethune-Cookman 10.

Connecticut (1-1) @ Maryland (2-0), 12;30 p.m.  Look, UConn looked offensively incompetent against NC State.  And Maryland looked very good against Temple.  Odds are that NC State is much better than Temple though.  Prediction: UConn 17, Maryland 12.

Furman (0-2) @ #11 Clemson (2-0), 3:00 p.m.  Clemson looked very good against Auburn and Ball State.  And now Sammy is back.  Going to get ugly for Furman.  Prediction: Clemson 45, Furman 9.

Virginia (2-0) @ Georgia Tech (1-1), 3:30 p.m.  Georgia Tech looked pretty good in a losing cause against Va Tech.  Virginia looked pretty bad in a winning cause against Penn State.  These both seem like 8 win teams, so we’ll give the edge to the home team.  Prediction: Georgia Tech 24, Virginia 13.

North Carolina (1-1) @ #19 Louisville (2-0), 3:30 p.m.  Louisville is the premiere team in the Big East, which is a little like being the thinnest person in Wal*Mart.  But North Carolina is not yet ready for prime time.  The heart says upset, but the brain says that the Cardinals are not ready to be upset just yet.  Prediction: Louisville 28, North Carolina 17.

Northwestern (2-0) @ Boston College (1-1), 3:30 p.m.  Northwestern is willing to play any non-ND, non-USC private school.  Syracuse, Vandy, and now B.C.  Really, Northwestern has a chance to be a top Big 10 team.  Boston College is still trying to find itself.  Prediction: Northwestern 27, Boston College 21.

Stony Brook (2-0) @ Syracuse (0-2), 4:00 p.m.  Wow, how can the Confidential pick an 0-2 team over a 2-0 team?  Well, Stony Brook beat Pace last week.  Syracuse was playing the NFL’s Pac-12’s Trojans.  Syracuse struggles with FCS teams and Stony Brook is a good one.  Prediction: Syracuse 38, Stony Brook 21.

South Alabama (1-1) @ North Carolina State (1-1), 6:00 p.m.  After struggling to move the ball against a stout UConn defense, NC State gets an easier foe this week.  Much easier.  Prediction: NC State 37, South Alabama 13.

North Carolina Central (1-1) @ Duke (1-1), 7:00 p.m.  NC v Duke?  Nope.  Just NCC v Duke.  Oh well.  Duke should win and probably will.  Yawn.  Prediction: Duke 30, NC Central 14.

The Confidential apologizes in advance for not picking your team.  There is also a lot of chalk here.  However, predictions are made to be accurate, not controversial.  Feel free to share why we are wrong. 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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