The Confidential

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Archive for the tag “bowls”

20 Sep 2012

Reports: Orange Bowl Deal Finalized

CBS Sportsline is reporting that the Orange Bowl deal has been finalized.  According to the report: “The ACC champion will play the highest-ranked team among Notre Dame and available teams from the SEC and Big Ten beginning after the 2014 season.  As the article notes, this deal secures the ACC within the five power conferences that will be dividing most of the college football money.

Left unsaid, of course, is how it will be determined that an SEC or Big Ten team is “available.”  Nevertheless, even the 3rd or 4th best team in these two conferences will present an outstanding gate/matchup for the Orange Bowl.  Georgia-Virginia Tech anyone?  Clemson-Nebraska?  Florida State-Michigan?  LSU-Miami?  Notre Dame-Wisconsin?  Yeah, the ACC and the Orange Bowl will be fine.

The report also notes at length the way the playoff structure will work in just a few years.  There will be ample tie-ins for the 5 major conferences, and then six more slots reserved for all teams.  If it is 6 SEC teams in the top 12, so be it.  If it is 3 teams from the Big East, so be it.  Everyone will have the same access and it will be filled based on merit.  Or, at the very least, the merit as determined by human beings.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference News, Football, Orange Bowl and tagged , , , , ,
18 Sep 2012
1 Comment

Orange Bowl Details Still Being Finalized

As reported last week, the Orange Bowl is looking to set itself up with an ACC team on one side and Notre Dame/SEC/Big 10 on the other.  ESPN is now reporting that a deal is close–details are being discussed as to how to make the determination of opponent.  This is important to the ACC, which owns the TV rights to the game.  Locking up the valuable ND/SEC/B1g trio will be huge for marketing purposes.

The interesting thing is that Notre Dame’s arrangement means that they could be on either side of the game.  If, for example, Florida State is a playoff team, the Orange Bowl could select the ACC runner-up–say a 10-3 Virginia Tech team to play a 10-2 Notre Dame team.  Or, if Virginia Tech played the Orange Bowl the year before, perhaps it would select 10-2 Notre Dame to be the ACC team and have the Irish play a team like Wisconsin, Nebraska, Ohio State, Michigan, Florida, Auburn, South Carolina, etc.  The flexibility of the Orange Bowl will give it additional marketability.  To be sure, Virginia Tech getting bumped in that example will be controversial.  But the financial rewards for the conference as a whole will be significant.

What is clear is that the Orange Bowl will NOT be an ACC vs. Big East game.  And, for that, the Confidential is pleased.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference News, Football, Orange Bowl and tagged , , , , , ,
14 Sep 2012
1 Comment

The Orange Bowl Issue

A few months ago, the SEC and Big XII announced a Championship Bowl that would add another pile of money to those conferences’ already large piles of money.  Many saw this as a sign that the ACC was relegated to second tier status as a football conference (or 19th tier, if you are a Florida State fan and looking for excuses for why the team cannot win 10 games anymore).  Some time later, the ACC announced that it had extended its relationship with the Orange Bowl AND earned the right to take the TV revenue from that game.  On the heels of that, the Confidential noted that Notre Dame would likely be a partner with the ACC in the Orange Bowl (here) or perhaps more.  Well, with the news of the ND/ACC partnership, left under-discussed was this tweet from Notre Dame’s athletic director Jack Swarbrick: “We are on track to participate in other side of the Orange Bowl along with SEC & Big Ten. Details to follow.”

This is huge news for the ACC.  Granted, the SEC or Big 10 opponent would be a #3 or #4 level opponent, but these are outstanding matchups.  With all the SEC power teams, the Orange Bowl would feature an outstanding matchup from a regional basis.  If it is a Big 10 school, Miami becomes a great vacation destination.  The Orange Bowl could see a Florida State-Nebraska game.  Of course, if both programs return to their 1990s days, they would be playing that game in the playoffs.  But assuming those teams are 9-10 win teams, that would be a great TV matchup, meaning more revenue for the ACC.  Needless to say, Notre Dame being an option is also very lucrative from a TV standpoint.  While the potential for a rematch is always there, with ND playing only 5 games, that is far from a certainty.  This, of course, is why the Orange Bowl would have the flexibility to go the B1G or SEC route.

One has to note the absence of a comment by Swarbrick regarding a Big East relationship with the Orange Bowl.  Maybe that was an oversight.  Or maybe the Orange Bowl wants nothing to do with the Big East programs.  While Louisville would probably be a good fit, as well as South Florida or Central Florida for geographic reasons, it is doubtful that an ACC-Big East matchup involving those schools would move the TV dial.  And Boise State is just too far away from Miami to think that there would be a large crowd.

In any event, ACC fans will have to continue to monitor this Orange Bowl situation.  Like the TV contract, the Orange Bowl is about ACC revenue.  The more, the better.

UPDATE: Frank the Tank is FAR more optimistic that the Orange Bowl opponent will be a high-quality SEC or B1G opponent, with the arrangement being one of timing:

The upshot of this would be that ACC #1 will be playing either Big Ten #1, SEC #1 or a highly-ranked Notre Dame team in the Orange Bowl in any given year, which will likely yield a media rights payout for the ACC that will be in line with what the Big Ten and Pac-12 are receiving for the Rose Bowl and the SEC and Big 12 are receiving for the Champions Bowl.  Thus, any chicken little beliefs that the ACC is going to end up playing subpar opponents in the Orange Bowl are going to go by the wayside.

If so, the Confidential was way off in suggesting that it would be a #3 or #4 conference representative in the Orange Bowl.  All in all, with the exception of the TV revenue flowing from the ESPN deal, ACC leadership has really rallied quite well.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference News, Football, Orange Bowl and tagged , , , ,
03 Jul 2012
3 Comments

The Orange Bowl Tie-In: An ACC Cash Cow Now

For several years now, the Atlantic Coast Conference and the Orange Bowl have had an official tie-in.  That relationship to continue for the near future, as the ACC and the Orange Bowl have reached a 12-year deal, which will carry the relationship through 2026.  While that news is great, the outstanding news is that the ACC also has the right to market the TV revenue from the Orange Bowl:

Sources told Schad that the ACC will negotiate and sell the Orange Bowl TV rights and plans to keep at least 50 percent of the revenue. Whatever network gets the Orange Bowl will get to broadcast it, even when it’s a semifinal.

Thus, not only is the new deal great for ensuring that the ACC will remain at the big boys’ table, it is also a financial cash cow.

Just imagine the ratings and revenue resulting from a Florida State-Notre Dame Orange Bowl.  Or, when the Orange Bowl hosts a semifinal, it will feature two of the top 4 teams in the country.  Again, this is a huge “get” for the ACC leadership.

The Orange Bowl remains the logical landing spot for ACC schools due to its location.  Now it will contribute money even when an ACC school is not playing in the game.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference News, Football and tagged , , , ,
07 Feb 2012

Playoffs for College Football?

The Big 10–long an adversary to any type of college football playoff–appears to be coming around.  In a recent article, it was noted that more and more Big 10 leaders are opening up to the possibility of a playoff.

To be sure, the contemplated playoff would involve 4 teams.  And two of these teams would play at their home stadium.  That this would help the Big 10 is obvious.  If a Big 10 school like Ohio State or Penn State made it that far, they would get to host a team in potentially snowy conditions.  Advantage, Big 10.

That being said, if this is the only way to get to a four-team playoff, then so be it.  Of course, the Confidential is far from persuaded that a 4-team playoff is the best solution.  Instead, it will likely just lead to complaints about how:

  • The system is unfair because Team A was a home team and Team B should have been.
  • The 5th team was so much better than the 3rd and 4th teams.
  • The system is pointless because “Undefeated MidMajor Program” went undefeated and was left out.

There is no perfect solution.  But rest assured that the powers that be are noticing those aspects of the present system that appear to be failing.  Bowl attendance is down.  Viewership is, at best, flat.  More recently, the idea of limiting bowl-eligibility to 7 wins was floated.  It sure looks like change is around the corner.  Hopefully, it will be something that at least the majority of football fans consider an improvement.

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Uncategorized and tagged , ,
12 Jan 2012

1,000 Reasons Why It Will Not Work–But Here is a Radical Plan for College Football’s Post-Season

Look, line up to tell the Confidential the reasons why this Radical College Football post-season proposal will not work.  But what proposal WILL work?  What solution will keep the conferences, schools, bowls, NCAA, network and fans happy?  The problem is not that a solution cannot be designed.  The problem is that every “solution” is going to be greeted with some sort of opposition.  The problem is that college football is not basketball AND that you cannot design a plan in advance that will accommodate the unique regular season that is taking place.  Accordingly, the Confidential presents its Radical Plan for College Football’s Postseason (the plan).

Under the plan, there will have to be some significant changes.  Instead of trying to design a strict 2,4, 8, 12, or 16 team playoff, the Championship Committee would be vested with the power to determine exactly how the national championship should be played out.  The emphasis would be on ensuring that all undefeated teams at least have the chance to decide it on the field.  The secondary emphasis would be to ensure that as few games as possible are used to reach a national champion, so as not to devalue the regular season.  The third emphasis would be maintaining the traditional tie-ins to the bowl games to the maximum extent possible.  And that is that.  Nothing more, nothing less.

First, the Championship Game (CCG) should be moved to Martin Luther King Day.  Frank the Tank has a great write up on the logic of using that date.

Second, all the BCS bowls should be moved back to January 1st.  Once upon a time, that was a veritable feast of college football.  A fan would plan on going from Cotton to Rose to Orange to Fiesta throughout the day, with a few other games sprinkled in for good measure.  It is easier to carve out a day than it is to carve out the night for several straight days.  This is just the way things are today.  Plus, think of March Madness.  You don’t plan to watch all day, but you get sucked in by the staggered start times and end up enjoying the finish to multiple games.  The networks can just plan on having more commercial value in the second half of bowl games.

Third, College Football needs a Championship Committee to decide who “gets in.”  Most other sports have one to decide who plays in the post-season tournament.  The problem is that College Football is unique in that every regular season game is an event.  Having an 8, 12, or 16 team playoff WILL detract from that.  It just will.  The beauty of college football is that every game matters.  The goal is to keep that.

Fourth, here is where it gets radical.  The Championship Committee is not going to be limited to just deciding who plays, but deciding HOW it plays out.  The Championship Committee will make the final decisions using the BCS Standings issued immediately after the weekend of the conference championship games to make the final plan.  At its disposal will be all of the bowl games, plus at least two non-BCS bowl games.

For example:

  • If there are two undefeated teams, then the Championship Committee will designate those two teams to play in the CCG.  From there, the other BCS bowls just proceed as in the current format.
  • If there is only one undefeated team, the Championship Committee will designate the next two best teams– using the BCS standings– to play for the right to play the bona fide undefeated team in the CCG.  If the two teams that will play in the preliminary game represent both the Big 10 and the Pac 12, the game is played in the Rose Bowl.  If not, the host bowl game is determined by BCS ranking, with the higher ranked team being the host team based on traditional bowl game tie-ins.  The Big East, Notre Dame, and all other conferences would be considered Cotton Bowl or Fiesta Bowl teams, depending on whether the Big XII wanted the Fiesta Bowl or Cotton Bowl.
  • In other situations, the Championship Committee will really have to earn its work.  It can work within the bowl system to create a 4-team “playoff.”  In all circumstances, any “playoff” will be skewed so that the Rose Bowl features a Big-10/Pac-12 matchup.  Beyond that, the Championship Committee would seek to have the bowls feature their traditional tie-ins to the extent possible.  ANY undefeated teams must be included in the 4-team playoff,regardless of BCS ranking.
  • In the rare scenario where there are 5 or 6 undefeated teams somehow, the Championship Committee would be able to have those teams engage in a pre-preliminary round in December to get down to 4 undefeated teams.
  • One tough situation is what to do with a 13-0 Ball State.  If the only other undefeated team is, say, an SEC school, an argument could be made that the fairest result is to just have those teams play.  If LSU had beaten a 13-0 MAC team this year, would the result have been any less valid?  If Ball State wins, it is the national champion.  It would be the only school to go undefeated AND would have beaten the team that beat Alabama and Arkansas.  Would they be “better” than Alabama?  Probably not.  But was Jim Valvano’s famous North Carolina State team better than Houston?  Were they better than everyone else that year?  No and no.  But it is what it is.
  • A second tough situation is where you have two undefeated teams, but neither are even close to #1.  See 2008.  In that circumstance, a 4-team playoff with the top 2 teams in the BCS standings will solve the problem.
  • The third tough situation is when you have no undefeated teams.  In that scenario, you just have to create a 4-team playoff and hope it works out.

After all, there is no sense in having a 4-team playoff when only 2 or 3 teams have a valid claim to be national champions.  However, a 4-team playoff is not even good enough when there are 5 undefeated teams.  And so on.  The only time when it is clear how many games are required is immediately after the season ends.

In 2011, Alabama would have hosted Oklahoma State in the Sugar Bowl for the right to play LSU.

In 2010, Oregon would have hosted TCU in the Rose Bowl for the right to play Auburn.

In 2009, there were 5 undefeated teams.  Boise State would have played Cincinnati in some December bowl game for the right to play Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.  Texas would have hosted TCU in either the Fiesta Bowl or the Cotton Bowl.  The winners of the Sugar Bowl and Fiesta/Cotton Bowl would have played for the national championship.

In 2008, Florida and Oklahoma were the #1 and #2 teams, but not undefeated.  Boise State and Utah were undefeated.  So the Championship Committee would have had Florida host Boise State in the Sugar Bowl.  Oklahoma would have hosted Utah in the Fiesta/Cotton.  And the winners would have played.  While controversy would not have been escaped here, either an undefeated team would have earned the National Championship by beating two very good teams or there would be no undefeated teams left standing.  The best that you can do in some years.

Will it end controversy?  No.  If the Championship Committee is choosing between three 1-loss teams, there are going to be arguments.  But there are always arguments.  In a 4-team playoff, the 5th team is going to complain.  And so on.

What do you think?  What are some of the problems with this plan?

Posted by acaffrey in Football and tagged , ,
31 Dec 2011

Bowl Predictions: Final 3 ACC bowl games

It’s time for bowl predictions for the final 3 ACC bowl games, which will feature Clemson, Virginia Tech, and future member Pittsburgh.  So far, the Confidential is 3-1, correctly predicting the results on all but the Wake Forest game.

On January 3rd, the Sugar Bowl will feature Virginia Tech (11-2) and Michigan (10-2).  This game will be a battle between the explosive running attack of the Wolverines and the stingy rushing defense of Virginia Tech.  Virginia Tech was able to bottle up Georgia Tech earlier in the year.  However, Michigan was able to move the ball against a good Nebraska defense.  Neither team had an extraordinarily difficult schedule.  The Hokies will be playing without their kicker, which might make a difference if this comes down to a low-scoring game.  Giving the Hokies defense this much time to prepare is the difference.   Prediction: Virginia Tech 21-Michigan 16.

On January 4th, the Orange Bowl will put ACC Champion Clemson (10-3) against Big East Champion West Virginia (9-3). Both of these teams had disappointing seasons for conference champions.  West Virginia certainly wishes it could redo a few of its games, especially the blowout loss to 5-7 Syracuse.  Clemson had that perplexing blowout loss to North Carolina State.  In losing to these teams, both foes showed that they can be shutdown completely.  At the same time, Clemson showed that it could beat tough teams, as demonstrated by wins over Auburn, Florida State, and Virginia Tech.  West Virginia played LSU tough for a spell, but really lacks that quality win.  Prediction: Clemson 35 – West Virginia 27. 

Last, but certainly least, future ACC member Pittsburgh takes its 6-6 record into Birmingham to face 7-5 SMU in the BBVA Compass Bowl.  Pittsburgh has been in a state of coaching flux.  SMU was able to keep June Jones from wandering away.  Maybe Pitt can win this one to stick it to former coach Todd Graham, but the Confidential just does not see it.  Prediction: SMU 24- Pittsburgh 20.

Feel free to share your agreement or disagreement.  Just do so before the game ends…

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , , ,
29 Dec 2011

Bowl Predictions: Middle 3 ACC bowl games

It’s time for bowl predictions for the middle 3 ACC bowl games, which will feature Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, and Virginia.  Not to get cocky, but the Confidential is 2 for 2 so far, having predicted Missouri to defeat North Carolina by 11 (actual margin 17) and North Carolina State to defeat Louisville by 4 (actual margin 7).  While tonight will feature the final game of the first three, it is time to move onto the next three–the games of December 30 and 31.

On December 30, the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-6) will travel to Nashville to take on Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-6) in the Music City Bowl.  As the .500 records suggest, neither team does a particularly outstanding job at anything.  Mississippi State is currently favored by 6.5 points, as perhaps the SEC pedigree is dictating Vegas.  After all, their losses were to stud teams LSU, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, South Carolina, and Auburn.  The problem is that their best win was against Louisiana Tech.  In contrast, Wake Forest stumbled to a season-opening loss at Syracuse in overtime (who was 5-2 at one point this year), but otherwise lost only to bowl teams.  And Wake Forest did beat Florida State and North Carolina State.  Edge to Wake Forest.  Prediction: Wake Forest 23-Mississippi State 21.

On December 31, Georgia Tech (8-4) faces off against Utah (7-5) in the Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas.  You know what you are going to get from the Yellow Jackets.  About 300 yards of rushing and maybe 150 yards of passing.  Meanwhile, Utah has been outstanding against the run–giving up only 98 yards per game on the ground.  That is 8th in the nation.  Plus, the Utes will have several weeks to prepare for the Georgia Tech attack–something most teams do not get week-to-week.  But the bigger question is whether Utah can move the ball against Georgia Tech.  If Utah’s defense does what it can do, it will not need to score much to win.  Prediction: Utah 20 – Georgia Tech 14. 

On December 31, the final ACC game during the calendar year 2011 will involve Virginia (8-4) playing Auburn (7-5) in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl in Atlanta, Georgia.  Auburn has had its offensive woes this year as it transitions out of the Cam Newton era.  To be sure, they have to do that in the ever-difficult SEC.  Meanwhile, Virginia was only able to score 14 points in its final two games of the season against Florida State and Virginia Tech.  This has all the makings of a defensive struggle.  Maybe The Confidential is just a little too fond of Mike London.  This may be a case of having the ACC-Goggles on.  Prediction: Virginia 24-Auburn 14.

Feel free to share your agreement or disagreement.  Just do so before the game ends…

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , , ,
28 Dec 2011

North Carolina State Takes Home the Belk

North Carolina State finished the 2011 season with an 8-5 record, after defeating Louisville in the Belk Bowl by a 31-24 score.   Junior quarterback Mike Glennon led the way for the Wolfpack, passing for 264 yards and three touchdowns.

The good game for Glennon was all the more necessary as Louisville was able to shutdown North Carolina State’s ground game.  James Washington was held to 45 yards on 16 carries.  But the passing attack allowed North Carolina State to jump out to a 21-10 lead at halftime.  TJ Graham was the other offensive star, converting 7 receptions into 116 yards and two touchdowns.  Of course, the defense did its part too, scoring on a 65-yard interception return in the third quarter to improve the score to 31-10.

Give credit to Louisville and its coach Charlie Strong.  The Cardinals rallied in the second half to narrow the score after relying on trick plays, such as a fake punt and onside kick.  And freshman quarterback Teddy Bridgewater made it interesting with his 274 yards passing and three touchdowns of his own.  But the damage was done in the first three quarters as North Carolina State got the big lead and held on to the victory.

For the Wolfpack, the season ends on a high note.  After being upset by Boston College, North Carolina State defeated Clemson, Maryland, and Louisville to finish with an 8-5 record.  That’s two bowl wins in a row, following last year’s defeat of West Virginia in the Champs Bowl.

 

 

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Game Review and tagged , , , , ,
16 Dec 2011
1 Comment

Bowl Predictions: First 3 ACC bowl games

It’s time for bowl predictions for the first 3 ACC bowl games, which will feature North Carolina, North Carolina State, and Florida State.  Although it will still be a while before the ACC bowl season kicks off, it is still bowl season eve, as a few mid-majors will get things started on Saturday.  Without further adieu, here are the first thee predictions.

On December 26, the North Carolina Tar Heels (7-5) will travel to Shreveport, Louisiana to take on Missouri (7-5).  This will be an interesting game as Missouri will bring the #11 rushing game in FBS into a game against the #14 rushing defense in North Carolina.  Something will have to give there.  If you look deeper at Missouri, you see a team that lost at Arizona State… and then to tough Big XII foes Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Baylor, and Kansas State.  Not a bad loss there.  Of course, no great wins either.  Similarly, the Tar Heels really did not upset any team all year.  At the same time, all of their losses were to bowl teams.  There is not a lot jumping off the page in terms of distinguishing these teams.  The overall toughness of the Big XII suggests that Missouri will be more battle tested.  Prediction: Missouri 28-North Carolina 17.

On December 27, North Carolina State ambles into Charlotte for its Belk Bowl matchup against Louisville.  Both teams finished 7-5 on the season.  However, Louisville started the season 2-4, only to finish strong with a 5-1 second-half.  This also occurred right around the time that Louisville switched offensive coordinators and Freshman QB Teddy Bridgewater stepped up his game.  Louisville’s defense was very tough all year.  The teams had two common opponents.  Cincinnati beat North Carolina State 44-14, but only beat Louisville 25-16.  On the other hand, North Carolina beat Louisville 14-7, but lost to North Carolina State 13-0.  Charlie Strong has put together an outstanding coaching staff at Louisville and will have several weeks to prepare.  Still, the Confidential thinks that North Carolina State will end up with a de facto home field advantage.  And they were 6-1 at home this year, losing only to Georgia Tech.  Prediction: North Carolina State 24-Louisville 20. 

On December 29, Florida State and Notre Dame will square off in a rematch of some great battles of the 1990’s.  However, these aren’t your older brother’s Notre Dame and Florida State teams.  Both teams head to Orlando with 8-4 records.  Nevertheless, these are two of the so-called “Kings” of college football.  Florida State will present Notre Dame with a very stingy defense that is 6th in the country.  Where Florida State struggles is offense, slotting in the bottom half.  Notre Dame is just outside the top quartile in both of those categories.  This is a very tough game to predict, but Notre Dame’s propensity for turnover implosions seems like the deciding factor here.  Prediction: Florida State 21–Notre Dame 13.

These are three very tough games.  (Already got the excuses ready).  Feel free to share your agreement or disagreement.  Just do so before the game ends…

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , , , , , ,

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