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27 Jan 2016
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2016 ACC Football: Games of the Week

The ACC released the football schedules for all schools earlier this week.  By now, fans have had their first thoughts on how positive and negative the specific schedule will be.  From an ACC fan perspective, the schedule analysis is broader–for example, what is the “must see” game of the week.  Here is the Confidential’s early prediction on what will be the games to watch each week:

  1. Week 1… with all due respect to Florida State and UNC, who are coming off great 2015 seasons, it was Clemson that carried the ACC in 2015 and the Tigers open Week 1 against Auburn.  If they can pull of that road win against a tough SEC foe, it will be a good omen.
  2. Week 2… with apologies to Virginia Tech and Syracuse/Louisville… Pitt hosting Penn State gets the nod.  These two Pennsylvania rivals have not faced each other often of late, but it will be ACC vs Big 10 in week 2.
  3. Week 3… no real contest here… if Louisville and Florida State are both 2-0 at this point, it will be all the more important to the Atlantic/ACC race.  And if either school has lost heading into this one, there could be desperation.
  4. Week 4… Duke vs. Notre Dame has historically been more interesting in basketball, but these are different times and the Blue Devils are quite competent.  They will give the Fighting Irish something to think about.
  5. Week 5…  a fair amount of good conference games, but the slight edge goes to Clemson-Louisville.  If Clemson is a top ranked team, the Cardinals will either be rolling or desperate.
  6. Week 6… Florida State traveling to Miami should be interesting.  Miami under a new coaching staff needs to start taking advantage of its talent.  An upset win over FSU would be a big momentum boost.
  7. Week 7… Virginia Tech and Syracuse used to play annually in the Big East.  While Frank Beamer coached all of those games for the Hokies, these two former rivals play as ACC foes in 2016, in the Dome, with Syracuse under a new coaching staff as well.
  8. Week 8… Speaking of new coaching staffs, Virginia has one as well.  In Week 8, rival North Carolina will come to Charlottesville.  Keep an eye on this one.
  9. Week 9… The biggest ACC game of the year in recent years has not been the conference championship game, but Clemson-FSU.  This year, Clemson will travel to Florida State.  Circle this one on your calendar for sure.
  10. Week 10… a difficult week to know which game will be the most important.  Will Clemson have looked past Syracuse in a post-FSU matchup?  Florida State has struggled at NC State recently.  Pitt-Miami is a Coastal clash, as is Georgia Tech-North Carolina.
  11. Week 11… with apologies to Duke-UNC, the Confidential ponders whether Pitt traveling to Clemson may feature the top teams in each division.
  12. Week 12… while many teams are slowing down to prepare for ACC/SEC rivalry games, a Northeast rivalry between BC and UConn will resume.  This game may feature less than 10 total points, but both schools detest each other.  Tune in.
  13. Week 13… of all the rivalry games, chances are that Florida State/Florida will be the best combination of high ranked teams and great teams.  South Carolina should struggle this year.

What do you think?  How do you rank the games of the week for each week?  Let us know.

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Predictions, Schedule and tagged , , ,
20 Jan 2016
1 Comment

Syracuse & Zack Mahoney

It is amazing that Syracuse fans are so quick to turn on Zack Mahoney and conclude that he is incapable of playing QB for Syracuse.  On what basis can any Syracuse fan make that statement?

Mahoney’s first game experience came against Central Michigan, where Mahoney ultimately led Syracuse to the overtime win in his first game action.  While offensive coordinator Tim Lester showed little confidence in him in regulation, overtime went well for the Orange–resulting in a victory.  In his next outing, all Mahoney did was overcome a terrible start to keep Syracuse competitive against then-#2 Louisiana State.  In his next outing, Mahoney kept Syracuse competitive against #1 Clemson.  While the passing was not good, Mahoney’s legs kept Syracuse close.

Between the LSU and Clemson games, Eric Dungey was given five games at QB for Syracuse.  Syracuse lost all five games–South Florida, Virginia, Pitt, Florida State, and Louisville.  All good opponents, but certainly not LSU or Clemson.

In the final two games, Mahoney and the Orange were defeated soundly by North Carolina State on the road, which ultimately was the end of the Scott Shafer era.  However, in the final game under Shafer, Mahoney led the Orange to the win.

The numbers are Mahoney on the season are not great.  Dungey completed 59.7% of his passes, while Mahoney only completed 46.2%.  However, Mahoney was 24 for 59 against LSU and Clemson, Syracuse’s two toughest opponents.  This certainly helped drag down Mahoney’s numbers.  Also, Mahoney did not play against Rhode Island or Wake Forest, and was only allowed to attempt 4 passes against Central Michigan (all 4 of which were completed).  Three of Dungey’s four best QB rating games were against Rhode Island, Wake Forest, and Central Michigan.  Dungey’s two worst games were at Florida State and Louisville.  Good opponents make QBs look worse than bad opponents.

None of this is to suggest that Mahoney deserves to start over Dungey.   Dungey certainly throws a better deep ball and has that certain intangible quality that you look at in a QB.  The mobility is a huge plus.  But the idea that Mahoney cannot be a 2nd or 3rd string QB on Syracuse moving forward is a bit absurd.  Not many QBs in Syracuse history have kept the Orange competitive against top 5 opponents–even in the Dome.  Mahoney did.  In his first year for Syracuse, without a ton of reps before the season due to his depth chart status.  Let’s not give up on the kid just yet.

 

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Opinion and tagged , , ,
25 Nov 2015

Roundtable of the Confidential’s ACC Correspondents: Week 12/13

Welcome to the ACC Roundtable of the ACC Correspondents!  As is and will be the plan for the remainder of the football season, the Confidential correspondents will discuss the Week that was (Week 12) and the Week that will be (Week 13) for the ACC and their respective schools.  Tell us what you think below.

1. What was most notable about your school’s performance in Week 12?

  • HHuntley (NC State): State put together an adequate performance this weekend. Not great, but not bad.
  • Kevin (Louisville): Most notable for UofL was holding PITT to only 3 second half points after helplessly coughing up 35 in the first half.
  • Alwin (North Carolina): The resiliency and clutch performance in OT, even though it was brought on by not taking care of the ball. Oh, and the defense seemingly carried the offense until the end there. That was new. 
  • Lenville (Louisville): The Cards experienced a complete breakdown in the 2nd quarter at Pittsburgh. That was easily the ugliest quarter that I ever remember them playing as the Panthers were overwhelmingly dominant, putting 35 points on the scoreboard. The Cards needed a QB change & a 49 yard TD bomb to pull back within 42-24 at the half.
  • Commander/ACaffrey (Syracuse): In a game that could have saved his job, Scott Shafer continued to be unduly risk averse, choosing a FG rather than going for the score on 4th and goal from the 1.  Later, down 21-3, he would go for a two-point conversion.  Not to be a hypocrite, but you have to know your football situation.  Why eschew an easy 1 point to take an offensive play from the 3 yard line (net possible gain of 1 point), when you did not try to get extra points on an offensive play from the 1 yard line (net possible gain of 4).  Plus, even if you fail on the 4th and 1, the other team STILL has to start from the line of scrimmage.  Instead, he again showed that he lacked confidence in his offense to score from the 1 and in his defense to take advantage of an opponent starting at the 1.  And in the end, the A.D. and fans lacked confidence in Shafer (who was fired).
2. What are you looking to see out of your school in Week 13?
  • HHuntley (NC State): This is the big one. A chance to spoil a nearly spotless season for the rival…doesn’t get much better than this. It would be typical NC State to win this game when it makes no sense at all.
  • Kevin (Louisville): This week I need to see a UofL team that can avoid long mental lapses and an offensive line that can create some resemblance of an average running game. Last, I want to see defensive backs who can prove they can actually tackle in space as they will get opportunities against Boom Williams and JoJo Kemp.
  • Alwin (North Carolina): I’m really looking for a complete effort in enemy territory. It’s going to be loud, it’s going to be insane, and it’s going to be intense. We need to play our best game of the season Saturday for many reasons. 
  • Lenville (Louisville): Good effort & focus from start to finish. It’s the last game of the regular season & the Cards are still looking for a QB to step up & claim the position of full time starter. To prevent our in state rival from getting to 6 wins & bowl eligibility for the second straight year.
  • Commander/ACaffrey (Syracuse): As bad a head coach as Shafer turned out to be, he was still a very good defensive coordinator and helped bring Syracuse back to respectability.  He is also, by all accounts, a good man.  I hope that he has a nice send off at the Dome this week with a supportive crowd and a victory.

3. Who impressed you the most in the ACC in Week 12?

  • HHuntley (NC State): Boston College sure gave Notre Dame a scare. That’s the second time this season they’ve done this. If they were bowl eligible, they’d be scary.
  • Kevin (Louisville): I was most impressed this week by North Carolina. They held off a very stingy VA Tech team in their house who had nothing to lose and looking for an upset.
  • Alwin (North Carolina): Virginia Tech. I know that may be biased considering they pushed us to the brink in the beginning of the game it looked as if the emotion had been spent sending Coach Beamer off, but they never gave up. 
  • Lenville (Louisville):Pitts 2nd quarter performance against the Cardinals. The secondary was no match for Boyd & they took full advantage of it. The Cards were able to make some halftime adjustments & were able to make a comeback just to come up short.
  • Commander (Syracuse): Miami keeps on winning.  Is there any chance that their interim coach gets retained by the new staff?  Recall that Urban Meyer kept Luke Fickell at Ohio State.  It would not be unprecedented.
4. If the playoffs started today, who would you vote in?  Who do you think will be there at season’s end?
  • HHuntley (NC State): Clemson, Alabama, B1G champion, and Big 12 champion. Sorry Notre Dame, but getting a week off is going to cost you.
  • Kevin (Louisville):I think the following will be in……Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame and Oklahoma.
  • Alwin (North Carolina): Clemson, Alabama, Iowa, and Oklahoma (for now)
  • Lenville (Louisville):Today I would have 1 Clemson, 2 Alabama, 3 Iowa & 4 Notre Dame. My prediction for the final rankings are 1 Clemson, 2 Alabama, 3 Oklahoma & 4 Michigan State. Notre Dame could still be a factor in the final poll with a victory over Stanford.
  • Commander (Syracuse): Season ends today & season’s end: 1. Clemson, 2. Alabama, 3. Notre Dame; 4. Iowa.  By season’s end: 1. Alabama; 2. Clemson, 3. B1G Champion; 4. Notre Dame.  If so, the Big XII would be left out again.  Maybe time to go to 12 teams???

What do you think?  How would you answer these questions?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, ACC Roundtable, Football, FSU Correspondent, Louisville Correspondent, Opinion, Syracuse correspondent, UNC Correspondent and tagged , , , ,
12 Nov 2015

ACC Roundtable of the Confidential Correspondents: Week 10/11

Welcome to the ACC Roundtable of the ACC Correspondents!  As is and will be the plan for the remainder of the football season, the Confidential correspondents will discuss the Week that was (Week 19) and the Week that will be (Week 11) for the ACC and their respective schools.  Tell us what you think below.

1. What was most notable about your school’s performance in Week 10?

  • HHuntley (NC State): This was really an encouraging win. It was the first game without either of the top 2 running backs, and the running game survived. Defense rebounded nicely from the week before.11
  • Lenville (Louisville): The Cards turned in their first complete game & got above .500 for the first time this season. The offense racked over 500 yards through the air & on the ground while the defense held Syracuse to 17 points. The Cards opponents have now committed over 50 turnovers in the last 22 games.
  • Commander/ACaffrey (Syracuse): That the Syracuse defense continues to be unable to do ANYTHING well.  It is like a chess game between a grand master and a novice.  Another QB coming off the bench to have a career day. 
2. What are you looking to see out of your school in Week 11?
  • HHuntley (NC State): Oh boy, not really for this one. NC State hasn’t had great luck playing in Tallahassee recently, and FSU is going to be coming off a tough loss against Clemson. I guess I’m looking to keep it close…
  • Lenville (Louisville): Will Bolin remain as the starter at quarterback & can the Cards put together another complete game. The Cardinals lost at Virginia last season & will look to get their first victory against their cross division rival to become bowl eligible.
  • Commander/ACaffrey (Syracuse): This week’s game will have little to do with Scott Shafer’s tenure.   If he wins the last two games, he will likely be back in 2016.  However, will the team respond with the type of performance that they had against LSU?   Will Shafer play to win, rather than his usual “play not to lose”?  I thought he turned the corner with the LSU game and had finally realized this.  Instead, he has regressed miserably.  If the game is still a game after halftime, that will be a baby step.

3. Who impressed you the most in the ACC in Week 10?

  • HHuntley (NC State): UNC looked better than ever in a dominant win over Duke. Does this say more about UNC or Duke? I’m temped to say it’s how good UNC can be, but both teams have had a rollercoaster of a year.
  • Lenville (Louisville): North Carolina is looking good & put together another dominant performance. FSU also gave Clemson a better game than what I was expecting.
  • Commander (Syracuse): How about Miami getting to bowl eligibility?  The ACC could benefit with UNC beating Miami this week, but Miami could win out and have a 10-3 season with a bowl victory.  The loss to Cincinnati stings more than the loss to Clemson.  That is the type of game that Miami HAS TO win 100% of the time.  In any event, if Miami can finish by winning 2 of its last 3, that would make it an 8-4 team heading into the bowls.
4. If the playoffs started today, who would you vote in?  Who do you think will be there at season’s end?
  • HHuntley (NC State): Chaos reigned supreme this week atop the polls, so my vote right now would be: Clemson, Ohio State, the Big 12 winner, and Notre Dame. I would choose Notre Dame over Alabama because Notre Dame has a better loss right now than Alabama.
  • Lenville (Louisville): 1 Clemson 2 Ohio St 3 Alabama 4 Oklahoma St. The Buckeyes have a chance to jump Clemson for the top spot with Michigan St & other quality opponents coming up on their schedule, including a possibly undefeated Iowa team in the B1G championship game. Oklahoma St should be in after their dominating performance against TCU. Alabama is looking like the best team in the country since their loss but they shouldn’t be any higher than #3, they have quality wins that other undefeated teams just don’t have. I would put Notre Dame, Baylor & Stanford as the next three.
  • Commander (Syracuse): Season ends today & season’s end: 1. Clemson, 2. Ohio State, 3. LSU, and 4. Baylor.   Alabama, Notre Dame, and Stanford are all in mix obviously.

What do you think?  How would you answer these questions?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, ACC Roundtable, Football, FSU Correspondent, Louisville Correspondent, Opinion, Syracuse correspondent, UNC Correspondent and tagged , , , ,
03 Nov 2015

ACC Roundtable of the Confidential Correspondents: Week 9/10

Welcome to the ACC Roundtable of the ACC Correspondents!  As is and will be the plan for the remainder of the football season, the Confidential correspondents will discuss the Week that was (Week 9) and the Week that will be (Week 10) for the ACC and their respective schools.  Tell us what you think below.

1. What was most notable about your school’s performance in Week 9?

  • HHuntley (NC State): All in all, I think NC State played well against Clemson. Without Matt Dayes in the second half, I think losing was inevitable. I’m proud of the effort and not really upset with the result.
  • Lenville (Louisville):The Cards won the turnover battle with 4 interceptions. The secondary displayed poor tackling technique but the front 7 played strong throughout the game. Young has emerged as a threat from this group. The offense found some success through the air while the ground game sputtered along.
  • Commander/ACaffrey (Syracuse): Florida State sat Cook and Golson, yet turned in one of their better performances offensively against an ACC foe.  What is notable is that Syracuse continues to be outmatched by ranked opponents under Scott Shafer.  Moreover, when the wheels fall off, they rarely get put back on.  That being said, there were a few Syracuse players that, despite their youth, belonged on that field with FSU.  The problem is that FSU’ young defense will mature along with Syracuse’s young offense.  Until Syracuse can field a FBS-level defense, Syracuse will not be able to win consistently.
2. What are you looking to see out of your school in Week 10?
  • HHuntley (NC State): NC State has never won when playing at Boston College. That’s a really bad streak that needs to be broken. Also, being bowl eligible wouldn’t hurt.
  • Lenville (Louisville): Still waiting for the offense to come alive. Can the defense contain Dungey? It will be nice to see Syracuse back in Papa Johns Cardinals Stadium.
  • Commander/ACaffrey (Syracuse): Louisville has struggled offensively, but will they find a way to dominate a Syracuse defense that has not stopped anyone other than Rhode Island?   Probably.  Will the Syracuse offense do more against a Louisville defense than other foes have?  Probably not.  But that is why they play the games.

3. Who impressed you the most in the ACC in Week 9?

  • HHuntley (NC State): In all the Miami/Duke chaos, I think Virginia’s win over GT was a big story. UVA really needed that win, but Georgia Tech couldn’t capitalize on the momentum.
  • Lenville (Louisville): There was plenty of controversy surrounding the finish of the Duke v Miami game but I was more surprised by Virginia getting the win over Georgia Tech. Beamer announcing his retirement at the end of the season also caught me by surprise. He is a living legend & among the all time greats, while it will be sad to see him go I believe it is time. Hopefully VT can find someone who will continue his legacy of excellence.
  • Commander (Syracuse): Jimbo Fisher.  Is there a coach at any elite-level program that carries himself with more class?  He sat Winston before the Clemson game last year.  Urban Meyer would have buried his head in the sand for a week.  Against Syracuse, Fisher played without Golson or Cook, but just went with it in stride.  The offense sputtered for two series, but then went to Plan B–attacking a weak Syracuse secondary.  Many coaching staffs would spend an entire half trying to establish the run or whatever their Plan A was.  Fisher and his staff adjusted quickly and dominated.  Then, after passing for 300 yards in the first half, Fisher took the air out of the ball to coach to a victory.  Despite losing to Georgia Tech, he did not run up the score.  When he went to his 3rd string QB for some first-game action, he allowed a few screen passes to let the kid get some passing experience… without running up the score.  Just a good, smart coach.
4. If the playoffs started today, who would you vote in?  Who do you think will be there at season’s end?
  • HHuntley (NC State): Ohio State, Baylor, Clemson, and LSU. I actually feel somewhat confident saying this could be my first accurate prediction.
  • Lenville (Louisville): Clemson, LSU, Michigan St & Baylor. Ohio St & TCU are right at the doorstep. Not much changed this week but next weekend will showcase some CFP showdowns like Clemson v FSU & LSU v Alabama. The committee will finally let their voices be heard starting this Tuesday.
  • Commander (Syracuse): Season ends today & season’s end: 1. LSU, 2. Clemson, 3. Ohio State, 4. TCU.  LSU and Clemson get tough matchups–lose and drop out–perhaps permanently.  Unfortunately for the ACC, a 12-1 FSU might be on the outside as well–a loss to Georgia Tech will do that.

What do you think?  How would you answer these questions?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, ACC Roundtable, Football, FSU Correspondent, Louisville Correspondent, Opinion, Syracuse correspondent, UNC Correspondent and tagged , , , ,
29 Oct 2015

ACC Roundtable of the Confidential Correspondents: Week 8/9

Welcome to the ACC Roundtable of the ACC Correspondents!  As is and will be the plan for the remainder of the football season, the Confidential correspondents will discuss the Week that was (Week 8) and the Week that will be (Week 9) for the ACC and their respective schools.  Tell us what you think below.

1. What was most notable about your school’s performance in Week 8?

  • HHuntley (NC State): Well we finally broke the streak of losing at Wake Forest. Moreover, it was refreshing to win a game like that. The past two weeks haven’t been great, but this one was nice.
  • Lenville (Louisville):Louisville fumbled twice setting up a BC TD & threw 2 interceptions, one in the end zone. BC also blocked a punt & returned it for a TD. The Cards lost the turnover battle 4-1, not including the blocked kick, & had only one offensive TD & yet still won 17-14. How? The Cards defense held BC to -14 yards rushing & just 79 total yards for the game. DT Rankins also returned the lone BC turnover, a fumble by the BC QB, 46 yards for a TD while hurdling a fallen OL along the way. BC picked up only 4 first downs for the game. It was a defensive slugfest in the rain at Papa Johns Cardinals Stadium.
  • Commander/ACaffrey (Syracuse): The Syracuse defense once again failing to stop an opponent from driving nearly the full length of the field.  The defense is bend and break right now, especially in crunch time.  It may be time to mix up the schemes somehow.   Syracuse demoted an Offensive Coordinator for less last year.
2. What are you looking to see out of your school in Week 9?
  • HHuntley (NC State): It’s a nationally televised game against a top 10 ACC team. That has all the makings of a improbable NC State upset. Really, there’s no bad outcome of this game. Either theyll lost really bad like they’re supposed to, or they’ll pull an amazing upset and become bowl eligible.
  • Lenville (Louisville): Improvement & some consistency from the Cards offense as they travel to Wake Forest this Friday night. Can the Cards defense smother WF like they did BC & keep up that intensity level?
  • Commander/ACaffrey (Syracuse): FSU should win easily.  But don’t sleep on Syracuse and Shafer making a game out of it… or FSU may, like LSU, allow Syracuse to make a game out of it.  In the end, no matter the result, it will be interesting to see if Syracuse’s offense can move the ball against the superior athletes on FSU’s defense (who are similarly inexperienced).  If Syracuse can put up 20 or so points, then perhaps Syracuse will be able to move the ball against FSU as both units grow in experience over the next few years.

3. Who impressed you the most in the ACC in Week 7?

  • HHuntley (NC State): I think the Virginia schools showed us how competitive the Coastal really is. Two of the worst teams staying close with two of the best makes for a really fun year in the ACC.
  • Lenville (Louisville): Clemson destroying Miami on their field, giving the Canes their worst loss in their history while sealing Golden fate.
  • Commander (Syracuse): Florida State losing to Georgia Tech.  The Seminoles have flirted with upset defeats all too often during the past two years and it finally caught up.  Georgia Tech is reeling this year.  FSU was undefeated.  This is not the end of the world for FSU, but it does show a vulnerability that may turn the season into a single-digit win total.
4. If the playoffs started today, who would you vote in?  Who do you think will be there at season’s end?
  • HHuntley (NC State): Down goes Utah, and that makes the picture a little clearer. Give me the AP top 4 as it stands today: Ohio State, Baylor, Clemson, and LSU.
  • Lenville (Louisville): 1 Clemson 2 LSU 3 Michigan St 4 Baylor 5 Ohio St 6 TCU. In my opinion these are the best & most deserving teams today. With Utah loss the PAC should be on the outside looking in. There are some 1 loss powers waiting on the sideline (Alabama, Notre Dame & Stanford to name a few) should chaos rain supreme down the stretch. Should Clemson stumble I would put Notre Dame in at this point. My pick for the ACC CCG is Clemson vs North Carolina. The Heels are putting things together since their season opening loss to the Gamecocks.
  • Commander (Syracuse): Season ends today: 1. Ohio State; 2. Baylor; 3. Clemson; 4. LSU.  By season’s end, do not be surprised to see TCU beat Baylor at home and leapfrog them.  Meanwhile, one of Ohio State and Michigan State WILL lose when they play and Michigan/OSU should be interesting.  This may cost the Big 10 a spot ultimately.  If so, perhaps 2 Big XII or 2 SEC schools slide into the playoffs to fill the void.  The Pac-12 is in the worst position right now of the P5 conferences.

What do you think?  How would you answer these questions?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, ACC Roundtable, Football, FSU Correspondent, Louisville Correspondent, Opinion, Syracuse correspondent, UNC Correspondent and tagged , , , ,
23 Oct 2015

ACC Roundtable of the Confidential Correspondents: Week 7/8

Welcome to the ACC Roundtable of the ACC Correspondents!  As is and will be the plan for the remainder of the football season, the Confidential correspondents will discuss the Week that was (Week 7) and the Week that will be (Week 8) for the ACC and their respective schools.  Tell us what you think below.

1. What was most notable about your school’s performance in Week 7?

  • HHuntley (NC State): Bye Week…NC State didn’t lose, but teams above them did. It was a good week.
  • Lenville (Louisville):The passing game improved even against a good FSU defense. Jackson found Quick for 3 TD’s passes. Unfortunately the run game disappeared. This loss was on the D as they continuesly shot themselves in the foot with penalties & poor tackling which led to multiple big plays. 
  • Commander/ACaffrey (Syracuse): The continuing narrative of Scott Shafer’s lack of courage, especially for a so-called “hard-nosed” coach.  Given the chance to go for 2 in the second overtime to win the game, he chose to kick the XP and force a third overtime even though: (1) his defense had not stopped Virginia in four consecutive drives, including two length of the field drives in regulation and a 40-yard drive in OT; (2) his offense had performed well in overtime; (3) his team would go first in OT3; (4) the opposing defense had a key LB–an already thin position–ejected for targeting, and gave up a TD in one play; (5) in light of #4 above, an option would have had more chance of success with an inexperienced LB substitution; and (6) in OT3, Syracuse would have HAD TO go for 2 on a TD anyway.  A complete lack of courage that, to me, is inexcusable.  3 years of playing not to lose has, well, led to losses.  Even if you fail, show your team that you have confidence in them and that you will take the responsibility for a loss (and off their shoulders).  
2. What are you looking to see out of your school in Week 8?
  • HHuntley (NC State): Quite simply…not to loose. NC State hasn’t won @ Wake Forest since 2001 and it would be great to break that streak.
  • Lenville (Louisville): Continued improvement. BC has a tough defense & their offense showed signs of life this past weekend. I want to see the Cards put a full game together, with rushing & passing from the offense & a full game from the defense. With their marquee games behind them they can grow their youth, try to make a bowl & build on next season.
  • Commander/ACaffrey (Syracuse): With FSU, Clemson, and Louisville looming, this is a must-win game for bowl-eligibility.  While not impossible to beat Louisville, NC State, and Boston College (who are 1-8 in conference play so far)… it is also very unlikely.  Frankly, it is just as likely that the team would lose to all three.  A win over a ranked Pitt would be the signature win for Scott Shafer at Syracuse (second only to perhaps Minnesota) and start to win back some of the fan base.  

3. Who impressed you the most in the ACC in Week 7?

  • HHuntley (NC State): Not sure what’s going on with Pitt, but they looked great this week in their win over Miami. Imagine the #CoastalChaos that would arise if they made it to Charlotte.
  • Lenville (Louisville): North Carolina beating Wake Forest 50-14. They are a team showing improvement every week & putting 50 up against a good WF D is a tough task. The Coastal maybe the toughest division in the ACC from top to bottom, take away FSU & Clemson and it is without a doubt.
  • Commander (Syracuse): Pitt, Duke, and UNC are two basketball schools and a school that has had more hoops success than football success recently.  But there they sit, undefeated in the Coastal.  Not Virginia Tech.  Not Georgia Tech.  Not Miami.  But a trio of essentially basketball schools.  Props to those athletic departments (well, except for UNC’s NCAA issues, of course).
4. If the playoffs started today, who would you vote in?  Who do you think will be there at season’s end?
  • HHuntley (NC State): Ohio State, Baylor, Utah, and Clemson. All the conference champions sans the SEC. LSU has a tough schedule ahead and might need to run the table to make the playoffs.
  • Lenville (Louisville): Today it would be 1 Utah, 2 LSU, 3 Clemson & 4 Michigan St. with Baylor, Ohio St, TCU & FSU in order. Alabama & Notre Dame are strong contenders among those with a loss. Ole Miss, who beat Bama, loss to Memphis may hold Bama back in the eyes of the CFP committee.
  • Commander (Syracuse): Right now?  Chalk–Ohio State, Baylor, LSU, and Utah.  By season’s end?  Baylor, Michigan State, LSU, and Clemson.  I like Baylor over  TCU and the field.  I also think that Utah is not quite ready to join the playoff mix.  MSU over Ohio State.  LSU over the SEC field.  And then Clemson getting the nod by beating a wounded South Carolina, a not-quite 2013 FSU, and the Coastal offering in the ACC Championship Game.

What do you think?  How would you answer these questions?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, ACC Roundtable, Football, FSU Correspondent, Louisville Correspondent, Opinion, Syracuse correspondent, UNC Correspondent and tagged , , , ,
18 Oct 2015
3 Comments

Scott Shafer squarely on the Hot Seat

Halfway through a season that some called a “job saving” year for Shafer because of the advantageous scheduling, and following yet another disappointing loss to a team that had 1 win prior to their match-up against SU, Scott Shafer is deservedly sitting on the hot seat; something that I’m sure Bud Poliquin will soon be eagerly writing about (since he is the Tina Belcher of sports commentary and writing about butts is kind of his thing).

Yes, the officiating against UVA was abysmal (and may have set a precedent to redefine the term “forward pass”) but Shafer’s poor clock management down the stretch, Chuck Bullough’s bend-and-then-break Defense did everything to keep UVA in the game, and Lester’s questionable calls early in the game cost Syracuse a chance for victory in a “winnable” game and made the chances of going bowling much, much harder and the InstaSnapTwitBook folks are not happy.

With new AD Mark Coyle on the job and ostensibly evaluating everything, I can only imagine that Coyle is making contingency plans for a coaching replacement in December should the season fail to result in a Bowl game.  Read more…

Posted by Vinnie Saltine in coaching hot seat and tagged , ,
07 Oct 2015

ACC Roundtable of the Confidential Correspondents: Week 5/6

Welcome to the ACC Roundtable of the ACC Correspondents!  As is and will be the plan for the remainder of the football season, the Confidential correspondents will discuss the Week that was (week 5) and the Week that will be (Week 6) for the ACC and their respective schools.  Tell us what you think below.

1. What was most notable about your school’s performance in Week 5?

  • HHuntley (NC State): I think it goes back to a stat I referenced in my recap. NC State running backs only received 20 carries with Matt Dayes getting 19. The running game has been a strong point for the entire season and it was weird to see the coaching staff go away from it.
  • Lenville (Louisville):The Cards defense stopped the Packs run game & the offense ran for 200+ yards. It was a good win for the Cards as they were able to keep in check an explosive NC State offense. Both quarterbacks struggled with their accuracy throwing the ball due to the wet weather but the Cards were able to grind out a 20-13 victory. The Pack did break the Cards defensive streak of 17 straight games with an INT.
  • Commander/ACaffrey (Syracuse): No new injuries during the bye week, as well as the return of QB Eric Dungey and Erv Phillips are good signs for the Syracuse offense.
  • UNC Tarheel Fan (UNC): Backup QB Mitch Trubisky had a record setting performance, the Mack Hollins we know and love reappeared, passing defense was stout (even though Delaware only threw 10 times they were held to 24 years passing), and third down conversions.
2. What are you looking to see out of your school in Week 6?
  • HHuntley (NC State): NC State gets up for big games, no question. I hope to see them get up and at least be competitive against VT on Friday night. Getting blown out on national TV is never fun.
  • Lenville (Louisville): The Cards need to work on their OL & QB play during this bye week before playing @ FSU.
  • Commander (Syracuse): Can the offense score 27+ points?  They have been averaging 28 ppg against FBS foes.  Can the defensive secondary perform better in isolation than against the prior three FBS foes?  Stopping the run is great; stopping the run and getting gouged by the pass is only going to work for so long.
  • UNC Tarheel Fan (UNC): We’re on a bye so getting rest and healing up for the ACC Coastal push is what I want to see.

3. Who impressed you the most in the ACC in Week 6?

  • HHuntley (NC State): Clemson really established themselves as the class of the ACC this week. I was a doubter, but I really think they’re better than FSU this year. Even though that last quarter said otherwise, Clemson really owned the that game in less than perfect conditions. Hats off to them. Also, UNC looked good against GT this weekend. Who thought they’d be in the driver’s seat for the Coastal?
  • Lenville (Louisville): Pittsburgh winning at Virginia Tech. It was a tale of 2 teams, Pitt finding stability with yet another new coach & VT seeing the Beamer era falling apart around them.
  • Commander (Syracuse): The fact that Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech are at the bottom of the Coastal.  I get that the Coastal is apparently never going to be Miami’s to win.  But it has been the “Techs” that have carried the division most years.  Even more surprising–it is hoops powerhouses Duke and UNC that are streaking ahead of the pack so far.
  • UNC Tarheel Fan (UNC): That’s a tie for both us and Clemson for different reasons. Clemson held on and got a much needed victory in prime time that puts it squarely in the conversation for the College Football Playoff. North Carolina won in Atlanta for the first time since 1997 after trailing 21-0 (the largest comeback in school history).
4. If the playoffs started today, who would you vote in?  Who do you think will be there at season’s end?
  • HHuntley (NC State): I’ll stick with my prediction that 4 conference champions will get in the playoffs. I think at this point, the SEC will get left out. I’ve got Ohio State, TCU, Utah, and Clemson. Obviously, Michigan State and Baylor could get in if they beat their respective conference opponents. The “SEC meat grinder” has really taken its toll on those teams in the polls and they may miss the playoffs because of it.
  • Lenville (Louisville): The B1G has been far from impressive & the SEC certainly hasn’t dominated. The PAC is down to only Utah & Cal as their lone undefeated teams, I’m seeing a lot of parity this season. The CFP committee is going to have a tough job this year, luckily we are only in week 6. Just picking from the undefeated, I would put Clemson, Utah, Ohio St & LSU in with Oklahoma, TCU, Baylor, Florida & Michigan St banging on the door. In the end I expect the PAC to be left out with the Big 12 champ taking their place.
  • Commander (Syracuse): Right now?  Ohio State, TCU, LSU, and Clemson.  By season’s end?  Ohio State, Alabama, LSU, and Baylor.  This means that the ACC and Pac-12 get shut out, with two SEC teams getting in.  The ACC is actually deeper this year than ever before.  This makes it that much less likely that Florida State and Clemson can run the table.  Plus, they play each other and one more SEC opponent.  Meanwhile, not buying into Utah.  Michigan State might displace an SEC school or Ohio State, but they have an additional tough game with Michigan trending up under Harbaugh.  Baylor-TCU is a tossup.
  • UNC Tarheel Fan (UNC):Baylor, Utah (whatttt?), Clemson, and Florida.  I could be the lone wolf here, but OSU, MSU, and Michigan all being in the same division could be setting them up for a shocker come December. Michigan has to play both OSU and MSU at home and right now I look to Michigan to be the Big 10 spoiler.  Both TCU and Baylor have to play each other AND Oklahoma before the end of the season with no conference title game. Right now I give the edge to Baylor based on absolutely nothing other than winning point margins. Texas is a mess so I don’t count that point margin for TCU yet.  Utah has a manageable schedule and Clemson just needs to get past NC State, FSU, and Miami. Easy right? Not in the least but if they do then look for them to in that Top 4.

What do you think?  How would you answer these questions?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, ACC Roundtable, Football, FSU Correspondent, Louisville Correspondent, Opinion, Syracuse correspondent, UNC Correspondent and tagged , , , ,
06 Oct 2015
2 Comments

The Confidential’s Correspondents’ Football Poll: October 6, 2015

Here is this week’s Confidential Correspondents Football Poll!  Still hard to differentiate a lot of these teams… even at the bottom.

13-15. Wake Forest (2-3); Virginia (1-3), and Virginia Tech (2-3)(0 points).  Welp, these three teams did not receive ANY votes.  Nothing to say, other than the obvious–only wins will change that.

12  Boston College (2-2)(5 points).  So far, BC has lost to undefeated Florida State and once-defeated Duke.  And somehow folks have Louisville, Georgia Tech, and North Carolina State ranked above them.

11. Georgia Tech (2-3) (7 points).  With losses to Notre Dame, Duke, and North Carolina, the Yellow Jackets difficult season is going even worse than expected.  No rest for the weary as they must travel to Clemson next.  With Florida State and Georgia on the schedule, bowl eligibility is not a certainty.

10. Miami (3-1, 9 points).  From 4 to 10, as the correspondents recognize that, once again, Miami is just not ready to return to prominence.  A loss at Cincinnati is not the end of the world.  But, needless to say, you are not a playoff team if you cannot beat ANY of the AAC teams on the road.  The idea of Miami as a football powerhouse is simply as obsolete as referring to DePaul as a basketball powerhouse.  An entire generation simply does not remember “the U” that way.

9. North Carolina State (4-1, 10 points).  We mocked NC State’s schedule.  Deep down, however, we wondered if they could be a very good football team.  The loss to 1-3 Louisville is more reasonable in real life than the records suggest.  With trips to Virginia Tech and Wake Forest (see above), this team could reach bowl eligibility by mid-October.

8. Pittsburgh (3-1, 13 points).  After Iowa’s upset of Wisconsin, the Pitt loss to the Hawkeyes is not looking nearly as bad.  And the Panthers welcome Virginia to town this week, a realistic chance at getting to 4-1.

7.  Louisville (2-3, 17 points).  Yes, two correspondents from Louisville lead to such things as the Cardinals being the only team below .500 in the top 10–and they are ranked #7 overall.  In fairness, the Louisville schedule was very frontloaded–with a back six of BC, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Virginia, Pitt, and Kentucky.  Much more daunting in hoops than the gridiron.  With Florida State up next in two weeks, Louisville may be 2-4 heading into that back half.

6.  Syracuse (3-1, 22 points).  Winston Wolf had a particularly relevant quote in Pulp Fiction about getting excited prematurely.  In other words, at 3-1, Syracuse has done exactly what was expected–even if Syracuse fans feared it might not happen.  Now it comes down to whether Syracuse can exceed expectations the rest of the way.  A trip to South Florida is the last OOC game and the first road game.  The Orange cannot afford to lose this game.

5. UNC (4-1, 23 points).  All of the sudden, North Carolina is making some serious noise in the Coastal.  There is a potential Duke-UNC showdown for the division title looming.  You know, just like ACC leadership expected when it added Miami, Virginia Tech, and Pittsburgh to that division.  Kudos to the Tar Heels for taking care of business so far.

4. Duke (4-1, 34 points).  The loss to Northwestern suddenly does not look so bad.  It was not an indication that Duke was retreating into irrelevance again.  Even better, Duke has a trip to Army coming up.  This will be a tough matchup…tougher than one might expect.  Duke’s defense will have to continue to carry the day.  So far, this has not been a problem.

3.  Notre Dame (4-1, 41 points).  The Fighting Irish played valiantly in Death Valley, but this team is not ready for the playoff.  Moreover, injuries are really starting to take a toll.  Still, this is a team that could very well get back to and stay in the top 10 all season long.  USC and Stanford are the only remaining ranked foes.

2. Florida State (4-0, 44 points).  Florida State has not really looked great in a few seasons now, right?  Seriously, has this team overwhelmed any competent opponent since the national title?  At the same time, the Seminoles’ record speaks for itself over that same span.  It will be interesting to see what FSU does with hapless Miami this week.  Will the Hurricanes out-effort FSU and stay in the game?  Or will FSU be up for the game and put its rival out if its misery early?

1. Clemson (4-0, 50 points, 5 first place vote).  Clemson beat Notre Dame.  In doing so, it made this poll very easy—as the Tigers were a unanimous #!.  No other position had unanimity.  But there are still 9 games standing between Clemson and the playoffs.  Some will be obviously difficult (FSU, South Carolina).  But it is games against desperate opponents–as in Georgia Tech this week–that has burst the Clemson bubble in years’ past.  Has Dabo Swinney eliminated this from the program?  We will see soon enough.

What do you think?  How do you rank these teams?

Posted by acaffrey in Correspondent Poll, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , ,

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