The Confidential

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Archive for the month “February, 2013”

09 Feb 2013
1 Comment

Syracuse Football Recruiting Class

The rankings are not kind to this year’s SU recruiting class and rightfully so.  However, Syracuse, even when good, has made a living out of developing the 3 star players.  As I noted last week, the coaching change was creating havoc.  On the negative side, Syracuse lost some verbal commits to Marrone and company such as Augustus Edwards RB/NYC (Miami), Malik Brown DE/Florida (Tennessee), Devan Carter LB/Rochester (Rutgers), and Zach Allen QB/Texas (TCU).  These were all highly sought players and are losses that certainly hurt.  However, kudos to the new staff, and especially new OC George McDonald who pulled in some fine players from various parts of the country all at the last minute.  Notables added late thanks to the new staff are Mitch Kimble QB, Brisly Estime WR, Corey Cooper  WR, and Corey Winfield WR. 

It looks like Scott Shafer’s new staff avoided disaster, because had they not been so good with the late additions, it could have been worse.  They get the benefit of the doubt here.  Unfortunately, it looks like SU fans who were just starting to see recrutiing getting to another level, have to accept the pitfalls of the current HC leaving for the NFL. 

I think the new staff’s success cherry picking these fine players late is a good sign.  However, as noted in last week’s posting, the core of the recruiting area has to be the 250 mile radius around the school.  This class only got one player from the coveted NYC metro area and SU still has not added a coach with ties to this area. 

SU and Boston College at one time owned NYC and NJ and now neither program is getting players from the area.  For either SU or BC to get back to their glory days they have to get their base area back. 

New Jersey has several national powerhouse programs – Don Bosco Prep, Bergen Catholic, St. Peter’s Prep (Jersey City) and St. Joseph (Montvale) outside NYC that churn out Division 1 players.  These players are going to Rutgers and to schools outside the area.  BC and SU used to be in the running for these players.  Ironically, Steve Addazzio has ties to the area from his days as a Syracuse assistant and now more recently at Temple so I wouldn’t be surprised to see BC make a comeback in NYC/NJ.

The ideal situation for Syracuse will be for them to take advantage of the “national” reputation of George McDonald to supplement their core base.  The challenge is going to be getting back into the core northeast programs that Marrone had just started to accomplish. 

 

Posted by tjcuseacc in Uncategorized
08 Feb 2013
10 Comments

Notre Dame Unlikely to Play ACC Hoops in 2013-2014

Not much to comment about here… the reports are that Notre Dame is unlikely to get out of the Big East in time for the 2013-2014 season.  At least part of the issue is what is going on with the so-called “Catholic 7” and their formation of a new league.  Notre Dame certainly does not want to be in a hoops conference with the leftovers from the Big East.  But if the Georgetown, Villanova, Marquette, and DePaul group is still around for 2013-2014, the urgency to leave is reduced substantially.

We can expect the anti-ACC (i.e. West Virginia bloggers) to say that this is “proof” that the ACC is about to be raided and/or that Notre Dame is getting cold feet.  If that is true, it will only be dumb luck for those bloggers.  Even a broken clock is right twice a day.  If you throw out rumors every week, you will be bound to get a few right over a long enough period of time.

On another note, Frank the Tank has an interesting update on the Catholic 7 and the Big 10’s possible interest in Johns Hopkins for lacrosse only.  The Confidential continues to ponder whether the ACC should consider Navy for football only.  Another partner for Notre Dame.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment, Football, Lacrosse and tagged , , , ,
07 Feb 2013
7 Comments

Reviewing Signing Day 2013: How Did The ACC Do?

Well, another signing day has come and gone for college football.  Your question, naturally, is how did the ACC do?  Actually, your real question is how YOUR team did.  But you’ll have to settle for this broad analysis for now.

Our friends over at ESPN have taken the time to rank the recruiting classes.  The ACC did quite well.  Future partial member Notre Dame was deemed to have the #4 class.  Florida State cracked the top 10 at #9.  Clemson was not far behind at #13.  We’ll have to see whether the Confidential correspondents agree with that order.  Virginia Tech, North Carolina, and Miami finished from #19 through #21.

So that is 5 of the top 21 teams being current ACC, with Notre Dame being a 6th team.  By comparison, the Big 10 had two teams in the top 21, with Ohio State and Michigan in the top 6.  Nebraska and Penn State at least finished at #24.  The Pac-12 had 3, with UCLA, USC, and Washington all slotting between #12 and #18.  The Big XII had two, with Texas and Oklahoma finishing #15 and #16.  The rest of the top 21 was SEC… meaning 8 of the top 21 teams were SEC.

All 14 SEC teams finished in the top 38, which is simply amazing.  Indeed, where the ACC struggles is with the second tier.  Only Virginia cracked the top 40.  See this:

SEC               10 in top 25                    14 in top 40

ACC               5 in top 25 (+ ND)        6 in top 40 (+ ND)

Pac-12           3 in top 25                      7 in top 25

Big 10            4 in top 25                      6 in top 25 (+ Rutgers)

Big XII          2 in top 25                      5 in top 25

Really, none of this is surprising.  The biggest problem with the ACC is that the lower-echelon teams are not given enough credit–fairly or unfairly.  But the ACC has absolutely nothing to be ashamed of at the top.  It is as strong as anyone–it just needs to win more BCS games and get more titles to prove it.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Opinion, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , ,
06 Feb 2013

Why Debbie Yow was right

I know this is a controversial subject, at least among Wolfpack fans, but I believe that Debbie Yow was right to let Tom O’Brien go. To support my position, let’s take a look at O’Brien’s tenure at State:

2007 – After 3 straight 9-3 seasons and eight straight bowl apperances at Boston College, TOB announces that he will be taking his talents to South Beach…er, NC State.  Most State fans, including yours truly, are pretty ecstatic.  His reason for what most view as a lateral move is the fan support he saw when BC visited Raleigh; State seems to be to him as Notre Dame is to Lou Holtz, a destination rather than a stepping-stone (like the Pack was for the aforementioned Holtz).  But an instant miracle is not in the cards; State finishes 5-7 and does not go bowling.

2008 – Fair enough, Coach needs some time to recruit. The team starts slow but provides a feel-good ending with 4 straight wins including a thrashing of UNC that leaves them bowl-eligible. They lose to Rutgers in the PapaJohns.com bowl, but it’s a start.

2009 – This one qualifies as a lost season.  Only a season-ending win vs the Heels that knocks them out of bowl eligibility gives State fans anything to cheer about.  The low point for Coach had to be the 52-20 drubbing the Pack took at BC.  Let the grumbling begin…

2010 – The high point, the one O’Brien will point to when he tells the story of his time at State.  He calms his critics with an 8-4 mark followed by a rout of West Virginia in the Champs Sports Bowl, 23-7.  This is the TOBPack we dreamed of.

2011 – State falls back to 7-5.  There is good news, with a last-game rout of Maryland 56-41, a powerful defensive performance vs UNC 13-0, and a thrilling Belk Bowl win against Louisville 31-24.  But after the 2010 season this really felt like somewhat of a step back. And there would be more of the same in…

2012 – Really? 6-6? Had to beat BC in the final game to get to a bowl again?  Then they lost to Vandy, though that one was on Dana Bible as our Yow had already pulled the trigger and frankly, the team looked a bit lost in this one.

Now, does the body of work mandate a firing?  No.  Is Tom O’Brien a bad coach? No.  I wish him all sucess in his new post as Associate Head Coach at Virginia and feel that he will return to the HC ranks at some point if he so desires.

But here’s the point: O’Brien had taken State about as far as he was likely to.  Yes, we went bowling four times in his six seasons, but we were almost always just this side of mediocre.   Sometimes it is just time, and this was one of those cases.

Will Dave Doeren do better? I don’t have a crystal ball, but he did take a team from a non-BCS conference to the Orange Bowl, a place State has yet to go.  Admittedly this is a completely different challenge than facing the likes of Clemson, Florida State and Virginia Tech on a regular basis, not to mention the newcomers about to change the face of the ACC.  But I look forward to finding out.

As for Yow, I am still pretty psyched about that basketball coach she chose. So let’s give this thing a chance.

Posted by mikemab2000 in ACC only, Football, NC State Correspondent, Opinion and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,
06 Feb 2013
1 Comment

Signing Day!

Today is the day that teenagers–at least the slow-to-decide or overly-dramatic ones–decide which college football franchise they will be associated with  for the next 4-5 years.  There are lots of battles to watch today–will Clemson overcome Florida State in the recruiting rankings?  Can Louisville or Miami make a run at them?  Can the new coaching staffs at North Carolina State, Boston College, and Syracuse close strong?  Will Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and Virginia keep themselves close to the upper echelon, despite disappointing seasons?  Is Notre Dame back?  How about the rest of tobacco road–will Duke, North Carolina, and Wake Forest show that they are not just places for hoops recruits?  And does anyone, anywhere really give a crap about Maryland?

Well, we know the answer to the last question–no!  Even the Big 10 shrugs with a “meh,” and refers to maps and markets.  But everything else is unanswered.  Tune in here and elsewhere for recruiting information on this huge day.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Recruiting and tagged , , , , , , , ,
05 Feb 2013

The Mysterious Case of Marquise Williams

While the Tar Heels have an important game against Wake Forest tonight, and a few obstacles to get through to come away with a victory (a team-wide flu epidemic and the absence of PJ Hairston), I thought I would do a spotlight on the UNC football team with signing day almost upon us.

On Monday, numerous media outlets reported that UNC back-up quarterback Marquise Williams was not enrolled in Carolina this semester. That led to a flurry of speculation surrounding his future with the Tar Heels. On Tuesday, the school sought to quiet these rumors by stating that Williams is indeed still on the team and is planning to enroll in summer school and play this fall. That still hasn’t been enough to bury the issue.  Many message boards are still convinced that he’s transferring.

So why is Williams not in school this semester? It could be for a number of reasons. He could be having academic difficulties, or might be dealing with an important issue at home. Everyone goes through something from time to time and it’s not fair for fans to jump to conclusions. But it brings up another interesting point. If he IS transferring, what impact will it have on the Tar Heel football program?

Williams came in as one of the top dual-threat quarterback prospects in the Class of 2011. After redshirting his freshman season, he played in nine games this year as Bryn Renner’s backup, running for 186 yards and three touchdowns. He also completed 10 of 17 passes for 127 yards and one touchdown. Those aren’t eye-popping numbers, but with scholarship restrictions depth becomes an issue. Last year, UNC brought in two-star QB Kanler Coker from Georgia and has already seen this year’s Mr. Football from the State of Ohio, Mitch Trubisky (this year’s #7 dual-threat QB), enroll early. So it would seem that UNC has enough strength at the position to withstand the loss of Williams, right?

Wrong. Williams is arguably one of the most talented QBs on the roster and is the second most experienced player at the position. If Renner goes down, that leaves Larry Fedora’s promising second-year offense in the hands of a completely unproven starter. No Tar Heel fan wants to see that because we have high hopes for this season and for the future. Perhaps, Williams has similar hopes for his own future and doesn’t feel that it’s at Carolina. Fair enough. After all, he will be eligible for the 2014 NFL Draft and won’t have any significant snaps under his belt if Renner stays healthy.

But is the number of UNC QBs leaving the program an indicator of the times, or an epidemic? In 2009, part-time UNC starter Cam Sexton transferred to Division II Catawba College for a better chance at the NFL. He posted average numbers and ended up signing with the Canadian Football League’s Calgary Stampeders. He was released in April of last year. Another backup QB, Braden Hanson, transferred to the University of North Dakota in early 2012 and set the team’s single season passing record with 660 yards in a game against Montana in October. That worked out well for him, but he is not expected to be drafted this April. Even worse for the Tar Heels, two QBs backed out of their commitments to Carolina, Vanderbilt’s Patton Robinette and Notre Dame’s Everett Golson (recognize that name), before even playing  a down.

So no matter what the reason, or even the perceived depth at UNC’s QB position with a solid starter and multiple backups, a loss of Williams would be huge for the Tar Heels and would continue the turmoil that just hasn’t stopped since Marvin Austin tweeted about being in Club LIV. Fortunately for Marvin, he got a Super Bowl ring last year, despite not playing. Michael McAdoo (not James Michael), a member of the Baltimore Raven’s injured reserve squad, continued the tradition this year. Butch Davis must be so proud.

Posted by Mr. Tar Heel in Football, UNC Correspondent and tagged ,
05 Feb 2013
17 Comments

The ACC’s Lack of a Grant of Rights Needs to Be Addressed

The Confidential is on record as disagreeing with the notion that the Big XII’s grant of rights is impenetrable.  That being said, the Confidential also disagrees with the notion that a grant of rights is merely an exit fee with lipstick.  Depending on the legalese, a grant of rights should be a property transfer, made voluntarily and for consideration, by a school.  It should be much much stronger than an exit fee.  As such, the ACC needs to address its current perceived weakness relative to the Big XII by pursuing, successfully, a grant of rights of some length.

The response is always that a grant of rights is not wanted by the membership.  Who does not want it?  If UNC, Duke, and Virginia do not want the grant of rights, then that tells you everything you need to know about the viability of the ACC.  Maryland did not like the exit fee and now it is in litigation with the ACC.  If these three schools are not bound to each other, and willing to reduce that to paper, then the ACC is doomed.

If those three agreed, one would have to think that Syracuse, Wake Forest, BC, and North Carolina State would be on board immediately.  For the most part, these schools are at risk for being left out when the chairs reshuffle.  Pitt could dabble with the Big XII, but the Big 10 is not an option, so Pitt should also be in favor.  While Virginia Tech–like North Carolina State–is rumored to be attractive to the SEC, it is unclear that the SEC is actually interested in these schools are their first choice.  If UNC and UVa went the Big 10 route, then perhaps a marriage would make sense.  But as long as UVa and UNC are solidly ACC, it is difficult to believe that a separation would be desired by Va Tech and NC State.

So that leaves Georgia Tech, Miami, Clemson, and FSU.  All four duplicate SEC markets (Georgia, South Carolina, Florida).  The Big 10 is not at all likely for Clemson alone.  Georgia Tech, FSU and Miami are possible, but have many reasons that they do not fit the Big 10.  At least not in the same way that North Carolina and Virginia do–proximity and academics.  Plus, Georgia Tech is a clear also-ran in its market.

The Big XII complicates things.  All four schools could make more money in the Big XII.  Probably.  It is unclear why Clemson and Georgia Tech would make $26+M per year for the Big XII.  Again, both are secondary schools in their markets.  And it is not like South Carolina is a big market.  Miami and Florida State are a different story.  Together, they would give the Big XII a strong Eastern flank and presence throughout Florida.  It would likely be worth it for the Big XII to take these two (or perhaps all four).  So these are the four truly “problem” schools.  At the same time, if the ACC had a legitimate plan to increase overall revenue, it is unclear that the monetary difference would be worth the move.  Certainly not in the same sense as Maryland’s move to the Big 10 (a relative no-brainer for a mismanaged athletic department that needs money badly and had the one thing the Big 10 needs–a new market).  But joining the Big XII would mean a grant of rights.  So, while it is unlikely that the SEC would come calling for Florida State or Clemson, a grant of rights with the Big XII would take them out of consideration.  Of course, a grant of rights with the ACC does the same thing.  So, yeah, the hesitance is there.

So this is the point where the ACC and ESPN need to sit down and talk seriously.  Without a grant of rights, the ACC is at a real risk of dissolving or turning into something unrecognizable.  If that happens, the good ACC markets will be divided between the Big 10, Big XII, and SEC.  If 10 teams leave the ACC, but only two go to the SEC (i.e. 6 to the Big XII and 2 to the Big 10), that means that 80% of those schools will shift over to conferences with a significant Fox relationship.  If Fox throws more money at these conferences, ESPN will be marginalized further with the lucrative college sports market (and ad revenue generated).  If ESPN is cool with that, so be it.  But if ESPN is not, then they need to step up to the plate and agree to something to make the ACC stronger.   And, by stronger, the ACC needs something tangible to convince everyone in the ACC to be willing to sign a grant of rights.

The length does not matter.  A five-year grant of rights would be enough to at least quiet the realignment talk a little.  It is shorter than the Big XII’s current grant of rights, meaning that schools with an eye on other conferences will still have an edge.  But it would allow for a bit of a “cease fire” and chance for the ACC to rebrand itself with its new additions.

If anyone does not want a grant of rights for even a relative short period, then it is clear that the ACC is not long for this world.  It is what it is.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment, Opinion and tagged , , , , ,
05 Feb 2013

The Denver Kirkland saga (and why the recruiting game is so difficult)

Think back to when you were 17 or 18 years old.  Like me, I’m sure you had no clue where your life was headed.  Now, magnify the stakes.  High school football players are thinking years ahead and their chances of getting into the NFL.  Millions of dollars are potentially on the line.  Indecision sets in.  Every school you visit has solid coaches, tradition, and facilities.  Some offer immediate playing time.  Maybe your family roots for the home-town school, but you have your eyes set on a school hours away.  Making this decision is hard enough.

Apparently, four star Denver Kirkland was taking too long to decide.  On Thursday, rumors began spreading and confusion was rampant.  The move seems almost inconceivable.  You recruit a player for over a year.  He’s a 4-star offensive lineman, the teammate of a recruit you are coveting, and from one of the most powerful high school programs in a state rich with talent (Booker T. Washington High School).  But it happened.  On January 31st, Al Golden and the Miami Hurricanes pulled his scholarship because he wasn’t ready to commit.  Pundits and recruiting analysts were split.  Some couldn’t believe you’d pull an offer for a kid you just spent so much time recruiting.  Others side with the school, noting that you have only so many scholarships and you can’t run the risk of not filling your needs.  In this case, Miami is desperate for defensive lineman.  However, the repercussions and shock-waves set in quickly.  Kirkland’s coach, Ice Harris, took to twitter to blast the school.  He went on the radio the next day to criticize how Al Golden and UM handled the situation.  Miami may have just burnt a crucial bridge and recruiting pipeline.

The Denver Kirkland saga unfolding in Miami is a text-book example of the crazy, zany world of recruiting.  On various message boards, rumors (read: unsubstantiated and nothing publicly reported on) have spread that UM invited Denver Kirkland and his family on campus to talk things over.  If you believe the rumor, UM re-offered Denver Kirkland and the recruiting bridge has not been burned.  The Miami Herald reported on February 2nd that Kirkland said “thanks, but no thanks.”  We really won’t know for sure until Wednesday.  Was it a misunderstanding?  How did UM find a new scholarship for Kirkland after it didn’t exist on Thursday?  What could you possibly say to smooth things over?  One thing is obvious: whoever gets Kirkland is getting a talent.  I think he always wanted to be a Cane, but his trust may have been too damaged to reconcile.  I think he signs at 9:20 AM on Wednesday donning the Florida State hat.  The combination of Ira Denson and Denver Kirkland may just be the answer to the Seminoles woes at offensive line.  Chop em.


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Posted by Duke in ACC only, FSU Correspondent, Predictions, Rankings, Recruiting and tagged , , , , , , , ,
04 Feb 2013

The Weekly Confidential Correspondent Poll: February 4, 2013

Well, the ballots were distributed to the Confidential’s correspondent pool.  With 5 precincts reporting, here is the top 12 for the ACC as of February 4, 2013:

1.  Duke (3 first place votes)     58 points

2.  Miami   (2 first place votes)   55 points

3.  Syracuse    47 points

4.  Notre Dame   41 points

5.  Louisville   40 points

6.  NC State   35 points

7.   Pittsburgh   32 points

8.  North Carolina   29 points

9.   Maryland  21 points

10.  Virginia   19 points

11.   Florida State  11 points

12.  Clemson  3 points

Notes:

Clemson edged Wake Forest 3-2, to land the coveted 12th spot in the standings.

The correspondents are starting to both believe in Miami and question Syracuse.  Nobody had Duke below #2.

Speaking of Syracuse, the Orange and Fighting Irish face off on Monday for the much desired number three spot in the poll.  Syracuse needs a win badly.

Louisville, Pitt, and NC State are a solid number 5 through 7, but the Tar Heels at 8 and only a few points behind them is surprising.

Maryland is only narrowly ahead of Virginia.  Unfortunately, Maryland does not have any ACC rivals, or they would be even better.  Bring on Rutgers and Iowa!

One half of the top 8 continues to be Big East.  Maybe the ACC is not helping football enough, but the basketball improvement will be obvious.  Of course, all four went to bowl games too.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Correspondent Poll, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
04 Feb 2013
2 Comments

Recruiting rankings matter, but so does depth

National Signing Day is mere days away.  For all intents and purposes, this is college footballs “free agency and draft” all rolled into one.  Your roster is set, the foundation for the next few seasons has been laid.  For an elite program, a few missed recruits can mean the difference between playing for crystal and playing for sugar or oranges… or worse, tires [take your pick of the lot of subpar bowl games].

If you believe what you read on FSU message boards, the sky is falling and football may not be played in September.  That may only be a half-truth; the sky seems to be falling but football will certainly be played at Doak Campbell Stadium come September.

So, why’s the sky falling in Tallahassee?  Florida State is on the verge of a recruiting misstep; one that might cost Jimbo Fisher his job.  According to the major recruiting services, FSU has finished with top 10 classes in the past few cycles.  However, when you look a bit deeper you notice a glaring issue.  Sure, there are five and four star skill players abound, but where are the offensive lineman?  Of the offensive lineman Florida State recruited last year, neither of them are on the team.  Granted, both were junior college transfers, but that means that Jimbo and Co. are playing with fire.  Not having depth at any position can cost you, but not having depth at offensive line can severely limit your potency on offense.  Many Florida State insiders refer to the loss against North Carolina State as an example of this; our NFL-bound right tackle, Menelik Watson, missed that game.  It turned out to be the Seminoles worst offensive performance of the year – the offense looked pedestrian at times and failed to convert on many third and shorts that could have clinched the game for the Seminoles.

Going back several years, recruiting offensive line has been an issue at Florida State.  Frankly, it doesn’t make sense.  Florida State has all of the other pieces on offense: a great offensive mind in Jimbo Fisher and blue chip quarterbacks, running backs, and receivers. A strong offensive line should be part of that equation but it has truly been anything but.  The rumor is that five and four star offensive linemen aren’t terribly receptive to Rick Trickett’s allegedly abusive coaching style.  So, maybe he thrives on “project” type players that are willing to work a little harder and be subjected to his coaching style.  However, it’s not just the quality of recruits, but the quantity.  Remember, Florida State did not retain either of the lineman it recruited last year.  During this year’s cycle, while much is expected to occur between now and Wednesday, Florida State has 2 confirmed offensive line commitments and one tight end that will likely transition to tackle.  What may hurt the most is that a long-time offensive line commitment, Austin Golson, decommitted just barely a week before signing day.

Of course, the irony of the situation is that the first string quarterback is Clint Trickett, the offensive line coach’s son.  Clint is not the most mobile of quarterbacks and is more of a pocket passer.  If his dad, Rick, doesn’t hold up his end of the bargain, he may actually wind up costing his son the opportunity to be the quarterback at Florida State.

Florida State is aggressively recruiting two offensive lineman, 4-star Denver Kirkland and 3-star Wilson Bell, and both are very likely to join Florida State on Wednesday.  However, if they don’t, I wouldn’t  be surprised by Florida State’s struggles in the future.  It’s like having a donut (spare tire) on a Ferrari; amazing potential, but perilously limited by a lack of quality and depth on the offensive line.

Posted by Duke in ACC only, Football, FSU Correspondent, Opinion, Recruiting and tagged , , , , ,

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