The Confidential

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21 Aug 2012
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Ranking the ACC Out-of-Conference Schedules

The 14 ACC schools certainly have different scheduling philosophies for out-of-conference games.  However, there is not one team that has a truly embarrassing slate, especially relative to the program at issue.  Here is the Confidential’s ranking of teams and the degree of difficulty for their OOC schedules:

Syracuse–USC and Missouri.  That alone puts them atop the list.  Add in Northwestern and Minnesota as two more BCS-level opponents.  Even Stony Brook is a high-level FCS opponent.  Syracuse gets the AC/DC Honorary “Big Balls” Award.

Miami–Kansas State, South Florida and Notre Dame are three high quality opponents.  Only Bethune-Cookman is a sure win.

Florida State–Florida and South Florida are very challenging opponents.  And FSU gets points for being willing to schedule West Virginia, even though that game was cancelled due to West Virginia fleeing the Big East.

Clemson–Auburn and South Carolina are two high-quality OOC opponents also.  Ball State may be tricky too.

Boston College: Notre Dame and Northwestern will be challenges.  Maine is good for an FCS program.  Army may or may not be good.

Virginia–Penn State was supposed to be the key game, but that is now weaker. TCU remains as a very tough opponent though.  Louisiana Tech and Richmond round out the schedule.

Pitt: Virginia Tech and Notre Dame are tough opponents.  Youngstown State and Gardner-Webb mean two FCS opponents.  Buffalo is not an overly difficult game for OOC #5.

Virginia Tech–returned to its Big East roots with games and Pitt and Cincinnati.  The other games are against Bowling Green and Austin Peay.  Meh.

Maryland–West Virginia and UConn, which gives Maryland the edge over NC State.  Temple is not a shabby third OOC game.  William and Mary round out the schedule.

North Carolina State–Tennessee and UConn will be OK opponents, but this is not the Tennessee of the 1990s and UConn did not exist back then.  South Alabama and Citadel are decent for their mid-major/FCS levels, respectively.

Georgia Tech–Georgia is always tough.  Brigham Young may or may not be a challenge, but Middle Tennessee State and Presbyterian are not going to be.

Wake Forest–Notre Dame will be tough, and you can never look past Vanderbilt.  Army and Liberty are also on the schedule.

Duke–Besides Stanford, the Blue Devils play a soft Florida International, Memphis, and North Carolina Central.

North Carolina–Louisville will be good, but Idaho, Elon, and East Carolina are underwhelming.  North Carolina gets the Beck Honorary “Loser” Award for 2012.  [And let’s not talk scandal either.]

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
20 Aug 2012

The Confidential ACC Football Rankings (Week # -1)

With the football season a mere two weeks away, the time has come for the Confidential’s Pre-Preseason Football Rankings.  As with last year, Syracuse and Pitt will be included in these rankings.  In any event, here they are:

  1. Florida State: Sooner or later, the King must be the King.  It has been a long time since the Seminoles were dominant.  Not sure it will happen this year, but they have the inside track for the ACC Championship.
  2. Virginia Tech:  While Miami and Florida State have been the ACC Kings, it is Virginia Tech that has carried the ACC most seasons since the realignment.  The Hokies slide above Clemson due to divisional differences.
  3. Clemson: The first thing Clemson needs to do is forget about the late-season collapse.  The second thing it needs to do is look at all the talent on both sides of the ball.  It’s going to be fun.  Don’t count the Tigers out.
  4. Virginia:  The Confidential likes what happened with Virginia last year and envisions the team building off that success.  It is amazing what a good coaching hire can do to rejuvenate a program.  That Penn State game looks a lot less daunting right now too.
  5. North Carolina State: The Wolfpack have a fairly talented crew returning.  The difficulty of the schedule is questionable.  Tennessee and UConn could go either way.
  6. Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets open the season with Virginia Tech.  If the Tech battle goes Ga Tech’s way, this #6 ranking will be low.
  7. North Carolina: The OOC game against Louisville will be tough, especially on the road.  But Elon, Idaho, and East Carolina is not too tough for the remainder of the slate.
  8. Pittsburgh: Every year, the Panthers seem ready to make a run.  Every year they do not.  So, it is #8 for Pitt until they capitalize on potential.
  9. Wake Forest: Not sure where Wake Forest is going with this OOC slate.  Anything from 1-3 to 3-1 is possible with Notre Dame, Vanderbilt, Army, and Liberty.  Pencil in a win over Florida state though.
  10. Miami: A reasonably challenging OOC slate with USF, Notre Dame, and Kansas State.  But Miami gets North Carolina State, Florida State, and Virginia Tech at home.
  11. Syracuse: An insane OOC, with preseason #1 USC, Missouri, Northwestern, and even Minnesota.  Is any other team playing 4 BCS conference teams OOC?  Throw in 4 conference road games and the USC game being home but on a neutral site and this has the makings of a very difficult year.
  12. Boston College: Boston College rallied last year, showing some serious character.  This should pay off in 2013.  Just not quite bowl-ready though.
  13. Duke: Outside of Stanford, Duke’s OOC is very soft.  This #13 ranking may end up being a little low.  But Duke’s going to have to prove it on the field before the Confidential believes.
  14. Maryland: Well, it cannot get WORSE for Randy Edsall, can it?  A tough OOC slate with Temple, UConn, West Virginia and William & Mary?  That’s right… William AND Mary.

The Confidential predicts a Seminoles-Hokies battle for the ACC Championship, with the Seminoles showing the world that they are back.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
17 Aug 2012
2 Comments

North Carolina Academic Probe: Much Ado About Nothing?

When it comes to academics, it is hard to argue that the Atlantic Coast Conference is second to only the B1G in academic prestige.  On the football field, the ACC teams have had their fair share of NCAA trouble lately, with issues at Miami and North Carolina garnering the most attention.  An academic fraud situation at North Carolina is even more troubling.  Or is it?

The details of the North Carolina academic issue and its status was recently summarized by ESPN as follows:

But as an offshoot of the NCAA investigation, a UNC internal probe found that 54 AFAM [African-American Studies] classes were either “aberrant” or “irregularly” taught from summer 2007 to summer 2011. That included unauthorized grade changes, forged faculty signatures on grade rolls and limited or no class time.

* * *

A four-member UNC Board of Governors panel is reviewing UNC’s original investigation into the AFAM department. The State Bureau of Investigation is looking into whether any computer fraud, forgery or conspiracy to commit those crimes in the AFAM department took place. June’s faculty report called for an independent commission of outside experts in higher education to take a forward-looking review of athletics and academics at the university.

Meanwhile, the NCAA, fresh off imposing sanctions on the football team for non-academic reasons, is going to have an interest in the North Carolina self-study.

The Confidential does not want to defend North Carolina, but this issue seems very overblown.  About half of the students in these easy classes were athletes.  The idea of classes like “Rocks for Jocks”  was invented long before ESPN and billion-dollar TV deals.  Is one easy class REALLY the end of the world?

Frankly, even a non-athlete can obtain a college degree without ever truly challenging himself or herself.  That is part of the beauty of college–you have a lot of freedom to determine what you want to learn.  Some students become engineers or architects and devote massive effort into difficult undergraduate curricula.  Other students (ahem, the Confidential, ahem) choose to take a broader spectrum of classes (i.e. not challenging themselves sufficiently).  But there is always graduate school.  And part of college is the learning that takes place outside the academic corridors.  So taking one or more easy classes is actually quite normal.

The Confidential believes that the fraud issues are certainly worth looking into.  Athletes’ grades should not be changed.  Everyone has an obligation to be ethical.  But if this is just a matter of steering athletes towards easier classes, it needs to just go away.

 

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Scandal and tagged , , , ,
16 Aug 2012
5 Comments

Big East Contract Negotiations and the ACC

Last week, someone on the Internet reported that the Big East is looking to get $14 to $17 million per team per year in television revenue.  Granted, the Big East is in the catbird seat as the next conference up to market itself.  But to think that the current collection of Big East schools could approach what the ACC is getting is shocking, especially after losing Pitt, Syracuse, West Virginia, and TCU.  If the Big East could land that–and that is a huge IF–what would that mean for the ACC?

First, before we get carried away on what the Big East will get, we should heed the words of Frank the Tank, the Internet’s best blog for discussing conference issues (realignment and business):

Regardless, if there’s any semblance of reason out there, then the truth will likely be somewhere in the middle.  NBC Sports Network effectively needs any type of halfway decent live sports content, so it has a larger incentive to pay a premium to the Big East.  Comcast is NOT a charity, though, as evidenced by the aforementioned Animal Practice interlude to the Closing Ceremonies of the Olympics.  This can’t be emphasized enough: Comcast is going to pay the least amount that they can possibly get away with in order to win the Big East rights.  As a result, that floor is going to be determined by how much interest ESPN and, to a lesser extent, Fox have in the Big East.  If the conference wants to obtain maximum value, then it particularly needs to have ESPN legitimately involved in the bidding process or else Comcast isn’t just going to hand over large rights fees for the hell of it and negotiate against themselves.  In my humble opinion, ESPN isn’t going to want to let NBC Sports Network get the Big East for free, but the guys in Bristol aren’t going to go balls out to retain the Big East, either (and Comcast, who has gone toe-to-toe with ESPN in tough negotiations on many fronts, definitely knows that).  That points to a potential Big East contract that’s in the middle of the high and low figures that have been reported out there – let’s say about $10 million per all-sports school per year and $4 million per non-football school per year.

Plus, the Confidential has always believed that ESPN is genuinely irate that the Big East rejected its offer last year.  It remains to be seen whether ESPN will even allow itself to get into a bidding war with other networks over the Big East.  While Georgetown, Villanova, St. Johns, DePaul and Marquette are situated in nice markets, the lack of a football team renders them somewhat indistinguishable from Atlantic 10 schools.  So it falls on the schools like Louisville, UConn, Cincinnati, Memphis, Temple, and Rutgers to carry the all-sports side of things.  That is not an awful collection of teams, but is it really going to top what the ACC and Big XII can offer in hoops, much less what all conferences can offer in football.  Just not sold on the ratings being there to justify mega-millions.

But if the Big East does land a deal approaching the ACC’s deal, then it is obvious that the ACC is in trouble.  By being locked-in at well below market value, and with conferences like the B1G and Big XII having the ability to negotiate soon, the disparity will be massive.  Seriously, if the Big East is worth $15M per team, the other conferences have to be worth $30M per team.  It will be hard for FSU and other schools to justify being compensated like a Big East team just because the ACC improvidently locked itself in.

And once the first school leaves the ACC, it is not difficult to envision scenarios where there is a greater pillaging of ACC schools by the Big Four conferences (except the Pac-12).  There are no shortage of Internet posts analyzing just how the major conferences would carve up the ACC.  Unfortunately for Syracuse and Pitt, they may have been on the wrong side of this move.  The Big East having the good fortune to market itself at the perfect time might, ironically, be the ACC’s undoing.

Of course, if you are ESPN, you do not want the ACC imploding.  So, again, expect ESPN to make a “take it or leave it” offer to the Big East that will give it a raise, but also keep the Big East from going on the market.  And if the Big East refuses, ESPN will have to just walk away entirely and put its billion dollars elsewhere.  Frankly, that’s a good move.  ESPN does not need to overpay for content.

Maybe the NHL could use that billion dollars?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment and tagged , , , ,
12 Aug 2012
1 Comment

Duke Forms Committee to Consider Upgrading Football to FBS-Level

(8.86 Miles From Chapel Hill, North Carolina)  Duke University President Dick Brodhead has announced that the university will be forming a committee to consider upgrading the football program to FBS-Level.  The committee will be chaired by former Duke great good, quarterback Anthony Dilweg.  Dilweg, now a successful real estate businessman, will have to “quarterback” a committee considering all the various pros and cons of the upgrade.

Duke actually does have some experience at the FBS-Level, even making it to a few bowl games.  In 1994, Duke played in the Hall of Fame Bowl, just five years after playing in the All-American Bowl.  And, in 1960, Duke played in the Cotton Bowl, a 7-6 barnburner between two 8-3 teams.  This is noteworthy because the Cotton Bowl still exists!  But to make it to bowl games in the modern era of corporate-sponsored bowls, Duke’s upgrade is going to be daunting.

Any good business move requires putting the right team into place.  The Confidential suggests that, if the committee does approve an upgrade,  Duke should consider employing some or all of the following:

  • Someone to run the school’s host program AND not be foolish enough to use actual Duke co-eds to do it.  Duke may need to employ professionals here.
  • Someone to oversee modifying the schoolwork/football balance to a more North Carolina State-y level.  No need to go all out on the cheating like North Carolina, but at least scale back some of that academics crap.
  • Someone to create, implement, and subsequently ignore the free sneaker program.  Do we need to even joke about where Duke should poach this person?   (some FSU fans are a little slow, so, even though this joke expired 10 years ago… YES, we meant FSU!)
  • The standard cocaine/car/prostitute liaison.  Vice = success.
  • Depending on how many rules Duke is comfortable violating, maybe just hire Lane Kiffin or Pete Carroll?  USC has shown that private universities can bend the rules as much as any state school.
  • A couple “coaching” jobs for Dads of real good players. That’s always a big hit on the recruiting trail.
  • A person to muzzle Dick Vitale.  Not going to help the football team directly, but there has to be a karmic benefit here.

Clemson is dabbling with a “scholarship for you and a buddy” program.  Duke might want to consider that too.  A successful football program at the FBS-level must be a little creative.

Quite obviously, Duke has a lot to consider before making the upgrade, and even more to consider if that is the decision is to go forward.  But it would be worth it to see a future generation of Duke football fans get to experience a bowl.

Cool Daily and Weekly Fantasy Baseball Leagues!

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Sarcasm and tagged , , , ,
10 Aug 2012

Today in the A.C.C. (August 10, 2012)

The Confidential had some fun yesterday at the expense of the Atlantic Coast Conference, but today it is back to the uber-serious ACC news.  Here is what is going on in the ACC for August 10, 2012:

Well, everyone plans to retire (except for 40% of transition baby boomers).  The real news here is that Phillips plans to do so soon–specifically, at the end of his term in July 2013.  So now Clemson must find a brand new A.D.  Or at least one that is less than retirement age.  Clemson President James F. Barker indicated that a national search for a replacement will be launched this fall, with the hopes of having a successor in place before Phillips’ contract ends.  Barker also had a slew of positive things to say about Phillips.  It is butt-kissing, funeral-quality stuff, so go read the ESPN article to get the flavor.

  • If you are an ACC school, or plan to be in 2013, chances are you are after an offensive lineman from Rochester, New York, named Alex Officer.

Actually, this was reported in ESPN’s “rumors” section, with a link to a Scout.com website that the Confidential is not yet “liquid” enough to subscribe too.  The upshot is that Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Boston College, and Virginia Tech are already after this guy.  Not sure where Randy Edsall is on this one.

This article also goes way out on a limb in projecting Duke and Wake Forest to be in the cellar of their respective divisions.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Today in the ACC and tagged , , , , , , ,
08 Aug 2012

Today in the A.C.C. (August 8, 2012)

Here is the latest that is happening with the Atlantic Coast Conference, as of August 8, 2012.

  • Previously, the Confidential noted the unfortunate circumstances surrounding Duke WR Blair Holiday.  Actually, it was yesterday, but whatever.

In a classy gesture, the Duke football team will be wearing a #8 on their helmets to honor him this season.  Good for them.  But if YOU want to do something, how about giving a donation to the fund set up to assist him: “For information on how to contribute to the The Blair Holliday Recovery Fund, visit www.giveforward.com/theblairhollidayrecoveryfund.”

  • In Miami, Ray-Ray Armstrong is not accepting his dismissal from the team without a fight; instead, he has lawyered up.

Armstrong’s counsel plans to file an injunction to force the “school to allow Armstrong to practice with the team until the NCAA determines if he has violated any bylaws.”  Of course, Armstrong’s counsel also noted that Armstrong has a lengthy history and was dismissed based on a few different incidents.  Still, it will be Armstrong’s contention that Miami has dismissed Armstrong just to make itself look better while the NCAA ponders just how much of a penalty Miami deserves.

  • In basketball news, Boston College has offered a scholarship to Chicago-area forward Evan Boudreaux.

The 6-foot 7 forward plays for Lake Forest high school.  Even if he chooses Boston College do not expect to see him any time soon–he is only a 15-year-old sophomore.  Nevertheless, he seems to have acquitted himself well against decent competition recently.

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Football and tagged , , , , ,
07 Aug 2012
1 Comment

Today in the A.C.C. (August 7, 2012)

Well, the Confidential jumped the gun a bit yesterday, calling it September in a few different places.  Rest assured, it is still August.  In any event, here is what is going on around the ACC today:

  • Hud Mellencamp, son of the famous singer John Mellencamp, is a walk-on for the Duke football team.

Mellencamp did not play football in high school football.  Nevertheless, Duke is letting him serve as a walk-on defensive back.  Maybe Florida State fans have a legit gripe about the rest of the ACC not taking its football seriously.

  • Speaking of Florida State, they are just thrilled to have stolen a tight end from Penn State, Kevin Haplea, and are not too worried about losing cornerback Greg Reid.

According to ESPN, “the Seminoles recruited Haplea out of high school in Annandale, N.J., but he chose Happy Valley over Tallahassee.”  However, he did not live happily-ever-after (pun intended) in Happy Valley, seeking out Florida State when the NCAA issued its sanctions.  FSU’s Jimbo Fisher was quick to clarify that point–Florida State did not contact Haplea, it was the other way around.  In any event, Penn State’s loss is Florida State’s gain.

Fisher is also confident that the team has the players to replace Reid, who was dismissed from the team after being charged with marijuana possession.  Kudos to Florida State, they are doing it without taking any Penn State players too.  Instead, they have a whole host of players that will audition for Reid’s spot.  All is well, apparently.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Today in the ACC and tagged , , , ,
06 Aug 2012
2 Comments

Today in the A.C.C. (August 6, 2012)

Here is a quick look at what is newsworthy in the Atlantic Coast Conference today, August 6, 2012:

  • In football, Duke WR Blair Holliday has been transferred to an Atlanta hospital.

Holliday suffered brain injuries in a July boating incident.  Hopefully, his recovery goes well.  Also, the report notes as follows: “Duke updated Holliday’s status in an announcement about the creation of a trust endowment in the receiver’s name.”  That’s a classy gesture, Duke.  Nice work.

  • In basketball, North Carolina State freshman guard Rodney Purvis is having eligibility issues.

Purvis was a McDonald’s All-American and prep basketball player of the year for North Carolina, so he is supposed to be a major  contributed for the Wolfpack this year.  Unfortunately, this eligibility issue stems from a review of his high school, and will keep/delay him from going with the rest of the team on an exhibition tour of Spain.  Hopefully, it gets sorted out fairly and appropriately before the season starts.

  • Interestingly, ESPN is touting North Carolina State as perhaps the favorite in the conference this year for hoops.

Time will tell.  Although a bit dated, the article does provide a nice overview of all the conference teams.   A worthy read.

  • Also in hoops, Duke will be joined in the Battle 4 Atlantis this year by a stacked lineup of Louisville, Memphis, Stanford, Missouri, Minnesota, VCU, and Northern Iowa.

WOW!  Where is the easy game there?  Remember that least year Harvard won this tournament too.  Don’t count out VCU and Northern Iowa.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Football, Today in the ACC and tagged , , , ,
04 Aug 2012
1 Comment

Clemson’s Sammy Watkins Out for Auburn Game

Unlike some teams, Clemson opens up the season with a tough matchup against Auburn in the Georgia Dome.  Unfortunately, they will have to do it without dynamic wide receiver Sammy Watkins, who was suspended for the first two games of the season because of his May misdemeanor arrest for marijuana possession.  Watkins will also miss Clemson’s home opener against Ball State.

Watkins had an outstanding freshmen season for Clemson, with 82 catches for 1219 yards and 12 touchdowns.  Watkins also added 229 yards rushing on only 31 carries–approximately 7 yards an attempt.  In addition, he returned 26 kickoffs for 683 yards.  On the season, Watkins led all ACC players in all-purposes yards with 2,228.  Only West Virginia’s Tavon Austin (2,574) and New Mexico State’s Taveon Rogers (2,356) had more all-purpose yards nationally.

Although his team will miss Watkins, Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney noted that Watkins exemplary post-incident conduct was a mitigating factor and that Watkins has learned from his mistake:

“I told Sammy this past May that there would be a high end (number of games) and a low end, and it would be up to him as to the length of his suspension,” Swinney said in a statement. “He has done everything we have asked and then some, so the two-game suspension is the low end. He just finished his responsibilities last week and I met with Bob Arial (Watkins’s lawyer) today to make sure everything had been completed properly.”

* * *

““The game of football, or a game of football will never be more important to me than teaching young people important life lessons,” Swinney said. “I have learned that many times something that seems to be the worst thing that can happen to you can become the best thing. I know Sammy will learn from this and use this to make a difference in other people’s lives. I look forward to having No.2 back on the field soon.”

Clemson has enough talent to still start out the season 2-0.  But that first game against Auburn just got that much tougher.

With all the discussion of “penalties” lately, one wonders if the best penalty for this situation wouldn’t have been to suspend Watkins for the Ball State and Furman games (game 3).  First, Watkins would be able to play in the Auburn game–the game where he is needed most.  That allows his teammates and fans to not share in Watkins’ punishment.  Second, missing the Ball State and Furman games would prevent Watkins from running up his stats in two games that would likely be high-scoring affairs (at least for Clemson).  This punishes the individual.  The Confidential thinks that forcing players to sit out stat-padding games is the best way to narrowly tailor the punishment to the player.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , ,

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