The Confidential

The ACC Sports Blog

Archive for the tag “Football”

Big 10 Expansion Petition

Until something more concrete is conceived, please consider signing and sharing this petition against Big 10 expansion:

https://www.change.org/petitions/the-ncaa-presidents-especially-big-10-presidents-stop-the-big-10-from-continuing-its-expansion#share

Whether you are a Big 10 fan that hates the addition of mediocre athletic institutions like Rutgers/Maryland and are otherwise sick of money driving things… or whether you are a fan of an ACC school who hates the idea of joining a midwestern conference… something needs to be done to give the fans power back.  We are the ones that make college athletics interesting, appeal to advertisers, etc.  If we stop caring, the money WILL GO DOWN.  Please stop giving us reasons to care less…

UPDATE: Even Frank the Tank is beginning to wonder about fire behind the rumored smoke.  http://frankthetank.wordpress.com/2013/02/19/b1g-dirty-south-expansion/     Do not complain if something goes down and you did not share your voice before it happened.  The University presidents are too elitist to care, but maybe trustees will hear the message and wonder whether short-term $$$ is worth the long-term move to ambivalence by the fan bases.

Miami Accused of Lack of Institutional Control

Hopefully our Miami correspondent will have much more on this later, but the NCAA finally got around to handing down its allegations to Miami–lack of institutional control.  Of course, the real issue for Miami fans is what kind of sanctions the Hurricanes are looking at.  But at least Miami has an idea of exactly what violations the NCAA is pursuing.

To its  credit, Miami has self-imposed significant sanctions already, including the voluntary loss of two bowls.  Of course, Penn State fans will probably make the argument that Miami’s crimes are worse NCAA violations than what happened in Happy Valley.

Rutgers Very Nervous: Big 10 Will Not Schedule FCS Games

According to Barry Alvarez, or more accurately according to CBS Sports quoting Alvarez, the Big 10 will no longer schedule games against FCS schools.  The most immediate reaction is extreme nervousness in Rutgers.  However, Rutgers has perfected the art of scheduling crappy FBS teams, so the need for panic is overblown.

For fun, let’s just look at Rutgers’ history in the Big East era (stats courtesy of http://www.jhowell.net/cf/scores/Rutgers.htm#2012).  From 1993 to 2000, Rutgers record was a well below-average 24-63. But at least there are some decent OOC opponents each year, such as Penn State, Notre Dame, and Texas.  In fact, one year–1999–featured Texas, California, and Wake Forest, three major conference opponents.  There were three seasons where Rutgers took on two major conference opponents, 1993, 1995, and 2000.  Not that Duke is that strong an opponent, but it’s still reasonable.

But then in 2001, a scheduling philosophy emerged–cupcake city.  From 2001 to 2011, the BEST OOC opponents scheduled by Rutgers for each season were as follows:

  • 2001: A 1-10 California team
  • 2002: Tough schedule–Tennessee and Notre Dame
  • 2003: Michigan State
  • 2004: Michigan State
  • 2005: Navy (only BCS foe was Illinois)
  • 2006: North Carolina
  • 2007: Maryland
  • 2008: North Carolina
  • 2009: Maryland
  • 2010: North Carolina
  • 2011: North Carolina
  • 2012: Arkansas

Thus, between 2003 and 2011, the toughest opponent Rutgers faced was some combination of North Carolina, Michigan State, Maryland, and Navy.   But it is not like Rutgers was scheduling in quantity, with three BCS foes.  Instead, for the most part, it was Army and Navy that would provide the more difficult 2nd and 3rd games.  The rest of the schedule would be MACtion and FCS.  Not surprisingly, playing these soft schedules led to a historical surge in wins.

Sure, you say… the Big East was too strong for Rutgers to schedule tough.  Really?  In 2002, equally inept Temple scheduled South Carolina and Oregon State.  Pitt scheduled Notre Dame and Texas A&M.  Boston College scheduled Stanford and Notre Dame.  West Virginia scheduled Wisconsin and Maryland.  Syracuse scheduled Auburn and North Carolina.  Virginia Tech scheduled LSU and Texas A&M (in addition to rivalry game against Virginia).  Miami scheduled Tennessee and Florida (in addition to rivalry game against Florida State).

OK, perhaps you can rationalize that because that was the older, tougher Big East.  Fast forward to 2007.  Rutgers OOC slate was Maryland (6-7), Buffalo (MAC), Navy (8-5), Army (3-9), and Norfolk State (FCS).  In contrast, Syracuse scheduled Washington, Illinois, and Iowa.  Pitt scheduled Michigan State and Virginia.  Louisville had Utah, Kentucky, and NC State on the slate.  UConn–just making the move to FBS–scheduled Virginia and Duke.  South Florida challenged itself with North Carolina and Auburn.  Cincinnati had a weak schedule too, with only Oregon State having any relevance. West Virginia had Maryland and Mississippi State.  Again, if Rutgers was not the weakest schedule, it was second weakest to only Cincinnati.

2012?  With the recent success, surely Rutgers would have taken on some tough opponents?  Nah.  Rutgers deserves credit for scheduling a trip to Arkansas–the first game against an arguable king of college football since 2002.  But the rest of the schedule was Tulane, Howard, Kent, and Army.  Wow.  Again, the other Big East schools were way ahead of Rutgers.  Temple could not get a 5th OOC game, but still found room for Penn State and Maryland.  UConn missed a bowl, but scheduled North Carolina State and Maryland.  Pitt had Virginia Tech and Notre Dame on the slate.  South Florida faced local kings Miami and Florida State.  Syracuse had an incredible Northwestern, Minnesota (road), USC (neutral), and Missouri (road).  Cincinnati was weak–with only Virginia Tech being a tough foe.  Finally, Louisville had North Carolina and Kentucky.  Again, Cincinnati is the only school providing Rutgers competition for weakest schedule.

While the Big 10 shifts away from FCS games, Rutgers will still be able to sprinkle in the MACtion and Army/Navy games.  At least playing a Big 10 schedule will provide some toughness.  Although Penn State’s sanctions and Maryland’s woes mean that the two rivals will be well-below par.  But at least Rutgers will see what it is like to play multiple football kings in a single season.  It has not happened much in the past 20 years and almost never in the past dozen.  Winning is impressive, but only when you beat good teams too.  Going big time might mean a return to small time win totals.

ACC Poll Day–If Notre Dame Went All-In with the ACC, Who Do You Like For Team #16

Today is a good day for a poll.  Query–if Notre Dame was to shock the world by going “all-in” for the ACC, giving it 15 teams, who would you like for team #16?  Let’s assume that schools from the SEC, Big XII, and Big 10 are out of the mix because…. they are.  Nobody is taking a pay cut to join the ACC.  It is what it is.

The candidates:

  • Connecticut.  Pros–outstanding hoops (mens and womens) & competent football, with at least one BCS appearance.  Rivalries with Syracuse and Pitt, and a huge rivalry potential with Boston College.  Even Duke-UConn womens hoops would be huge.  Cons–only competent football, not outstanding football.  Geographical overlap with Boston College.  Not a pedigreed football name.
  • Cincinnati.  Pros–new market (southern Ohio), good football recently, and some decent hoops.  Close to Pittsburgh & Louisville for potential rivalries.  Cons–small market, as Ohio is dominated by Ohio State, while neighboring Kentucky is  swallowed by Louisville and Kentucky.
  • Navy.  Pros–national name and a partner for Notre Dame.  Back into the Maryland/DC market.  Cons–terrible hoops in the post-David Robinson era.  Football would not exactly be an upgrade–although it is hard to say that Navy is demonstrably worse than UConn or Cincinnati in the big picture.
  • South Florida.  Pros–outstanding location for football recruiting and potential.  Cons–ACC already has the Florida market in check with Miami and FSU.  Hoops team has not done much, and the football team has underachieved of late.  Not a national name by any stretch.
  • Temple.  Pros–Philly market, good hoops history, and potential for football.  Cons–football has been more bad than good in the modern era, especially in the absence of a certain Mr. Golden.
  • Hybrid craziness.  Let’s say #16 gets to be UConn for hoops, Navy for football, and Johns Hopkins for lacrosse–take it or leave it, folks.  Or some other combination, like VCU for hoops subbing in for a UConn not being happy with a partial membership.

Anyone else out there?  This seems to be the list.

Who do you like and why?

Conference Realignment–ACC Needs to be Wary of History Repeating Itself

Frank the Tank has a new entry for your perusal.  In this latest blog entry, the opinion is that Fox, rather than ESPN, is responsible for the demise of the Big East.  The Confidential disagrees.  Moreover, the Confidential cannot help but think that the ACC needs to be very wary of the destruction of the Big East to prevent, to the extent possible, the demise of our great conference.

As a preliminary matter, there is no doubt that Fox’s entry into the sports networking landscape has been a contributing factor.  If nothing else, the partnership with the Big 10 has dramatically altered the college sports landscape.   Fox’s role in conference realignment is obvious.

But the demise of the Big East began long before the loss of Rutgers, Maryland/Louisville, Notre Dame, and the Catholic-7.  Rather, the demise began with the loss of Pittsburgh and Syracuse.  And, really, the loss of Pittsburgh and Syracuse began with the inability of ESPN and the Big East to negotiate a restructured deal.  While ESPN was willing to ride the Longhorn Network into town to save the Big XII, ESPN did not bother to do anything to save the Big East from demise.  Rather, it allowed (directed?) it’s partner, the ACC, to take two of the Big East’s most valuable properties–Syracuse and Pittsburgh.  Even if Fox was behind every other move that decimated the Big East (see West Virginia, TCU, Maryland, and Rutgers), the reality is that ESPN never stepped up to the plate to save the Big East.

As ESPN continues to lose the rights to major college programs, one wonders if ESPN is going to go the route of MTV.  Once, MTV showed videos… with an occasional non-video show sprinkled in.  At some point, MTV stopped showing videos.  And it’s been decades since this author has cared about MTV.  Every pass through revealed less about “music” and more about reality TV.  Presumably, MTV is still profitable and pleasing to its owners.  Is ESPN going to follow suit and devote more resources to news & shows where reporters yell at each other?   It certainly runs contrary to the prevailing logic that live sports are among the best television products out there because people cannot fast forward through the commercials.

In any event, the question that begs is whether ESPN will step up to the plate to “save the ACC.”   ESPN helped save the Big XII.  But, with every program that moves from the ACC to the Big XII or Big 10, ESPN will lose the exclusive rights to that school.  And one wonders whether Fox will be content to allow ESPN to share in the Big XII and Big 10.  If this is a business battle between Fox and ESPN, Fox seems to be winning.  The Big East was “collateral damage” in that battle.  The ACC needs to ensure that ESPN does not view the ACC as collateral damage.  It is unclear exactly what the ACC can do… but at least being wary of ESPN and history repeating itself is a very small step one.

What do YOU think?  Is ESPN working for or against the ACC these days?


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The Mysterious Case of Marquise Williams

While the Tar Heels have an important game against Wake Forest tonight, and a few obstacles to get through to come away with a victory (a team-wide flu epidemic and the absence of PJ Hairston), I thought I would do a spotlight on the UNC football team with signing day almost upon us.

On Monday, numerous media outlets reported that UNC back-up quarterback Marquise Williams was not enrolled in Carolina this semester. That led to a flurry of speculation surrounding his future with the Tar Heels. On Tuesday, the school sought to quiet these rumors by stating that Williams is indeed still on the team and is planning to enroll in summer school and play this fall. That still hasn’t been enough to bury the issue.  Many message boards are still convinced that he’s transferring.

So why is Williams not in school this semester? It could be for a number of reasons. He could be having academic difficulties, or might be dealing with an important issue at home. Everyone goes through something from time to time and it’s not fair for fans to jump to conclusions. But it brings up another interesting point. If he IS transferring, what impact will it have on the Tar Heel football program?

Williams came in as one of the top dual-threat quarterback prospects in the Class of 2011. After redshirting his freshman season, he played in nine games this year as Bryn Renner’s backup, running for 186 yards and three touchdowns. He also completed 10 of 17 passes for 127 yards and one touchdown. Those aren’t eye-popping numbers, but with scholarship restrictions depth becomes an issue. Last year, UNC brought in two-star QB Kanler Coker from Georgia and has already seen this year’s Mr. Football from the State of Ohio, Mitch Trubisky (this year’s #7 dual-threat QB), enroll early. So it would seem that UNC has enough strength at the position to withstand the loss of Williams, right?

Wrong. Williams is arguably one of the most talented QBs on the roster and is the second most experienced player at the position. If Renner goes down, that leaves Larry Fedora’s promising second-year offense in the hands of a completely unproven starter. No Tar Heel fan wants to see that because we have high hopes for this season and for the future. Perhaps, Williams has similar hopes for his own future and doesn’t feel that it’s at Carolina. Fair enough. After all, he will be eligible for the 2014 NFL Draft and won’t have any significant snaps under his belt if Renner stays healthy.

But is the number of UNC QBs leaving the program an indicator of the times, or an epidemic? In 2009, part-time UNC starter Cam Sexton transferred to Division II Catawba College for a better chance at the NFL. He posted average numbers and ended up signing with the Canadian Football League’s Calgary Stampeders. He was released in April of last year. Another backup QB, Braden Hanson, transferred to the University of North Dakota in early 2012 and set the team’s single season passing record with 660 yards in a game against Montana in October. That worked out well for him, but he is not expected to be drafted this April. Even worse for the Tar Heels, two QBs backed out of their commitments to Carolina, Vanderbilt’s Patton Robinette and Notre Dame’s Everett Golson (recognize that name), before even playing  a down.

So no matter what the reason, or even the perceived depth at UNC’s QB position with a solid starter and multiple backups, a loss of Williams would be huge for the Tar Heels and would continue the turmoil that just hasn’t stopped since Marvin Austin tweeted about being in Club LIV. Fortunately for Marvin, he got a Super Bowl ring last year, despite not playing. Michael McAdoo (not James Michael), a member of the Baltimore Raven’s injured reserve squad, continued the tradition this year. Butch Davis must be so proud.

The Denver Kirkland saga (and why the recruiting game is so difficult)

Think back to when you were 17 or 18 years old.  Like me, I’m sure you had no clue where your life was headed.  Now, magnify the stakes.  High school football players are thinking years ahead and their chances of getting into the NFL.  Millions of dollars are potentially on the line.  Indecision sets in.  Every school you visit has solid coaches, tradition, and facilities.  Some offer immediate playing time.  Maybe your family roots for the home-town school, but you have your eyes set on a school hours away.  Making this decision is hard enough.

Apparently, four star Denver Kirkland was taking too long to decide.  On Thursday, rumors began spreading and confusion was rampant.  The move seems almost inconceivable.  You recruit a player for over a year.  He’s a 4-star offensive lineman, the teammate of a recruit you are coveting, and from one of the most powerful high school programs in a state rich with talent (Booker T. Washington High School).  But it happened.  On January 31st, Al Golden and the Miami Hurricanes pulled his scholarship because he wasn’t ready to commit.  Pundits and recruiting analysts were split.  Some couldn’t believe you’d pull an offer for a kid you just spent so much time recruiting.  Others side with the school, noting that you have only so many scholarships and you can’t run the risk of not filling your needs.  In this case, Miami is desperate for defensive lineman.  However, the repercussions and shock-waves set in quickly.  Kirkland’s coach, Ice Harris, took to twitter to blast the school.  He went on the radio the next day to criticize how Al Golden and UM handled the situation.  Miami may have just burnt a crucial bridge and recruiting pipeline.

The Denver Kirkland saga unfolding in Miami is a text-book example of the crazy, zany world of recruiting.  On various message boards, rumors (read: unsubstantiated and nothing publicly reported on) have spread that UM invited Denver Kirkland and his family on campus to talk things over.  If you believe the rumor, UM re-offered Denver Kirkland and the recruiting bridge has not been burned.  The Miami Herald reported on February 2nd that Kirkland said “thanks, but no thanks.”  We really won’t know for sure until Wednesday.  Was it a misunderstanding?  How did UM find a new scholarship for Kirkland after it didn’t exist on Thursday?  What could you possibly say to smooth things over?  One thing is obvious: whoever gets Kirkland is getting a talent.  I think he always wanted to be a Cane, but his trust may have been too damaged to reconcile.  I think he signs at 9:20 AM on Wednesday donning the Florida State hat.  The combination of Ira Denson and Denver Kirkland may just be the answer to the Seminoles woes at offensive line.  Chop em.


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Recruiting rankings matter, but so does depth

National Signing Day is mere days away.  For all intents and purposes, this is college footballs “free agency and draft” all rolled into one.  Your roster is set, the foundation for the next few seasons has been laid.  For an elite program, a few missed recruits can mean the difference between playing for crystal and playing for sugar or oranges… or worse, tires [take your pick of the lot of subpar bowl games].

If you believe what you read on FSU message boards, the sky is falling and football may not be played in September.  That may only be a half-truth; the sky seems to be falling but football will certainly be played at Doak Campbell Stadium come September.

So, why’s the sky falling in Tallahassee?  Florida State is on the verge of a recruiting misstep; one that might cost Jimbo Fisher his job.  According to the major recruiting services, FSU has finished with top 10 classes in the past few cycles.  However, when you look a bit deeper you notice a glaring issue.  Sure, there are five and four star skill players abound, but where are the offensive lineman?  Of the offensive lineman Florida State recruited last year, neither of them are on the team.  Granted, both were junior college transfers, but that means that Jimbo and Co. are playing with fire.  Not having depth at any position can cost you, but not having depth at offensive line can severely limit your potency on offense.  Many Florida State insiders refer to the loss against North Carolina State as an example of this; our NFL-bound right tackle, Menelik Watson, missed that game.  It turned out to be the Seminoles worst offensive performance of the year – the offense looked pedestrian at times and failed to convert on many third and shorts that could have clinched the game for the Seminoles.

Going back several years, recruiting offensive line has been an issue at Florida State.  Frankly, it doesn’t make sense.  Florida State has all of the other pieces on offense: a great offensive mind in Jimbo Fisher and blue chip quarterbacks, running backs, and receivers. A strong offensive line should be part of that equation but it has truly been anything but.  The rumor is that five and four star offensive linemen aren’t terribly receptive to Rick Trickett’s allegedly abusive coaching style.  So, maybe he thrives on “project” type players that are willing to work a little harder and be subjected to his coaching style.  However, it’s not just the quality of recruits, but the quantity.  Remember, Florida State did not retain either of the lineman it recruited last year.  During this year’s cycle, while much is expected to occur between now and Wednesday, Florida State has 2 confirmed offensive line commitments and one tight end that will likely transition to tackle.  What may hurt the most is that a long-time offensive line commitment, Austin Golson, decommitted just barely a week before signing day.

Of course, the irony of the situation is that the first string quarterback is Clint Trickett, the offensive line coach’s son.  Clint is not the most mobile of quarterbacks and is more of a pocket passer.  If his dad, Rick, doesn’t hold up his end of the bargain, he may actually wind up costing his son the opportunity to be the quarterback at Florida State.

Florida State is aggressively recruiting two offensive lineman, 4-star Denver Kirkland and 3-star Wilson Bell, and both are very likely to join Florida State on Wednesday.  However, if they don’t, I wouldn’t  be surprised by Florida State’s struggles in the future.  It’s like having a donut (spare tire) on a Ferrari; amazing potential, but perilously limited by a lack of quality and depth on the offensive line.

ACC Winter Meetings Update- Future ACC Basketball Tournament Sites

Finally, we have some news out of the ACC Winter Meetings! Swofford has been FAR too quiet the past few days despite all of the realignment rumors that have been picking up speed in this blog and others. Fortunately, as any ACC member knows, silence from John Swofford and the ACC can be a good thing. HE’S UP TO SOMETHING.

ESPN just posted an article regarding  ACC Basketball Tournament sites and the possibility of future tournaments in New York City. What do you guys think about that? While I’m an NC native and a current resident, I’ve never liked the tournament being in Greensboro. Sure, I love the history, and the location is pretty convenient for me, but it just hasn’t seemed like the right place for the past few years. The league’s membership has grown and changed and so has its footprint. The location of its tournament must reflect that.

I’ve recently been a proponent of the conference expanding to 16 teams. Once we got beyond 10, scheduling  just became too difficult and unwieldy. With 16 teams, you can split up into four pods and play 9 conference games in football. That means you can play your entire pod (3 games), another full pod (4 games) and half of a third pod (2 games) each year. Under that configuration, teams would be able to see each other at least once every other year and play a game at every team’s home at least once every four years. That’s way better than things are now. Under the new scheduling rotation and current divisional model, it may take UNC up to 8 years to play Wake Forest, a longtime rival who’s campus is just 80 miles down the road from Chapel Hill. So how would these pods look?

Tobacco Road                    Deep South                Mid-Atlantic              North

North Carolina                        Miami                              Virginia                           Boston College

NC State                                     Florida State                  Virginia Tech              Syracuse

Wake Forest                             Georgia Tech                 Pittsburgh                    Louisville

Duke                                            Clemson                           West Virginia              Notre Dame

You’ll notice that I have West Virginia and Notre Dame in there. I believe that WVU has always belonged in the ACC and that ND WILL be forced to join a conference at some point. Its conference of choice is the ACC. They have proven this by taking partial membership with us over the Big 12 and rejecting the B10 on numerous occasions. If superconferences were to be logically created (and they probably won’t be), then the Big 12 would be the next to fall (not the ACC) and WVU would be free to join without the grant of rights restriction (which could just as easily be broken if 5 or more Big 12 members wanted to leave).

All that to say, is that it is imperative that the league shake its “Tobacco Road” bias image. That is why I propose that the tournament develop a permanent rotation between four cities: Orlando (ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex- Deep South POD), Raleigh (PNC Arena- Tobacco Road POD), DC (Washington Wizards Arena- Mid-Atlantic POD), Brooklyn (Barclays Center- North POD). Not only do these cities provide a variety of entertainment, dining and housing options for fans, but they also come with a significant corporate population and satisfy the fan bases of each “pod.” No longer would the ACC tournament be seen as a place where the North Carolina schools are given an advantage. With a strict, set rotation, fans could expect their favorite team to have an unbiased leg-up on the competition once every four years. This would also ease with travel plans for fans and teams and leave the league to work on more important matters such as re-branding itself and marketing its product.

What do you think? While we haven’t heard much yet, the news out of Florida (the location of the ACC Winter Meetings) is encouraging. John Swofford seems to be more willing to stray from the past, as seen with the addition of Louisville, than ever before and this can only be good for the future of the conference.

A Doomsday Scenario For the ACC–MrSEC Provides One

In the blogosphere, Mr. SEC is not someone to throw stuff at the walls.  And it is not happening here.  But the blog does have an article about how the Big XII and SEC could work together to kill off the ACC as a viable 5th big conference.

Part of the premise is that if the Big XII took Florida State, Louisville, Clemson, and Georgia Tech (along with say Miami and ND as a partial member for football), it could engage the SEC with a scheduling agreement.  That way the Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Georgia schools would continue playing each other, while Missouri-Kansas, Texas-A&M, etc., could be renewed.  The question that begs is who that helps?  The in-state rivalry games are going to happen.  The difference between calling them “out-of-conference” and “out-of-conference, but part of the scheduling agreement” is minimal.  That still only leaves a certain number of games for other opponents.  In the meantime, we’d never get to see Florida-Texas or LSU-Florida State, because Florida-FSU would be playing every year in the “alliance game.”

This is not to say that the Big 10, Big XII, and SEC could not figure out a number of ways to divide up the ACC.  The bottom line is that being Syracuse and Wake Forest right now is not fun.  Not much room for private schools in the top 4 conferences.  So a viable ACC is needed to sit at the adults table.  At least BC and Pitt occasionally show up elsewhere in some doomsday scenarios.

Really, unless the ACC moves to a Grant of Rights, the expansion issue is going to loom.  Otherwise, the Big XII has a relative strength advantage over the ACC.  And that makes the ACC a target.

What is your opinion?

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