The Confidential

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Archive for the tag “realignment”

27 Nov 2012
7 Comments

Navy to the ACC?

There are some Internet rumors out there about Navy being in consideration for the ACC.  Interesting.

First, if adding Navy means that Notre Dame joins the ACC full-time, then it is game over and you have to do it. Adding Notre Dame would legitimize the ACC in a way that no other addition could.

Second, if not, Navy could be added with the same program as Notre Dame.  Perhaps both teams would play 5 games.  Perhaps both teams would be willing to play 6 games.  After all, the matchup between the two schools would now be a conference game.  For scheduling purposes, it would make some sense to have two teams doing so.

Of course, the problem would be figuring out how to coordinate divisions.  With Notre Dame and Navy both appealing to northern teams, it would be hard to divide geographically.  Ideally, you’d want to separate Notre Dame and Navy.  But then they would have to play extra games to face each other.  It gets challenging.

An interesting move would be to add Navy and Army for football only if ND is willing to go “all in.” Picture this:

USA Pod: Syracuse, Army, ND, Boston College

NE Pod: Pitt, Navy, Virginia, Virginia Tech

NC Pod: NC, NC State, Duke, Wake Forest

SE Pod: Miami, FSU, Clemson, Georgia Tech

The USA Pod and NE Pod always play each other, forming the NORTH division.  The NC and SE Pod always play each other, forming the SOUTH division.  The best teams in the North and South play in the CCG.  Each team in the North would also play one team from the NC and SE pods each.  Each team in the South would also play one team each from the USA and NE pods.  The goal would be to match teams by level as much as possible.

With 9 opponents set, this would only leave Notre Dame three OOC games, presumably USC, a Big 10 school, and another school.  But if ND were agreeable to that, so be it.

Obviously, there would be some issues.  ND, Virginia Tech, and FSU are good anchors.  North Carolina is a weak anchor for the NC pod.  Although they were 8-4 this year.  Meanwhile, having Clemson, Miami, and Georgia Tech in one pod is pretty strong.  But, again, the pods are not actual divisions–just for  scheduling purposes.  It remains a North/South split.  On balance, the North/South split is not that bad.

In fact, just allowing the geography to play itself out makes more sense than trying to manipulate balance.  This year, Florida State is playing 6-6 Georgia Tech.  It would be better to be playing an 10-2 team from the North–regardless of difficulty of schedule in getting there.  For strength of schedule purposes, it benefits a Florida State or Clemson to play the toughest schedule possible.  Of course, THIS year, Notre Dame would be the best team, with a 10-2 record overall.

In any event, that remains a bit of a pipe dream on many levels.  For now, the discussion is UConn, Louisville, and Navy.  Unfortunately, there is no real discussion about Cincinnati right now.

Time will tell as to which, if any, is chosen.

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment, Football and tagged , , , ,
24 Nov 2012
22 Comments

ACC Expansion Thoughts: 16 teams?

The message boards are heating up over the idea of the ACC adding Louisville, Cincinnati, and UConn to become the first 16-team conference.  Indeed, this was a legitimate enough “rumor” that the well-respected Frank the Tank blog (notwithstanding the Confidential’s recent criticism of some of the comments there), included this quote:

One interesting example of Twitter having fans on edge was a Tweet from Brian Miller, a Tallahassee Democrat reporter that said that the ACC wouldn’t even make a choice between Louisville and UConn, but rather add both of them along with Cincinnati* to create a 16-team conference.  By the time that Tweet spread like wildfire, Miller had removed it from his timeline.  Time will tell whether that was removed because it couldn’t be backed up or the information was too sensitive for the reporter’s source to put it out there for public consumption immediately.  The ACC may very well have the most incentive to grow to 16 first to create a perception of strength in numbers (even if it might not look like the most financially lucrative move).  [Full article here.]

At first glance, the idea of expanding to 16 teams seems counter-intuitive because it would mean 16 teams dividing an already too-small pot for 14 teams.  But there is plenty to discuss about it.  Here are the Confidentials thoughts (albeit with zero predictions).

The recent addition of Maryland to the Big 10 is a benefit to Fox.  While ESPN has a piece of the Big 10, as the Big Ten Network grows, the risk of losing more inventory also grows.  And Fox’s partnership with the Big 10 is one that includes joint ownership of the BTN.  While much is said about ESPN and Fox being cooperative in preventing a third major sports network developing, it cannot be forgotten that ESPN and Fox are not simply dividing the world for mutual benefit.  At some point, they are competitors.  In the same vein, the SEC and Big 10 both covet North Carolina–they may be cooperating to some extent, but they both ultimately have a similar goal.  In any event, if the Big 10 were to take two more ACC schools or if the Big XII were to take a few (or more) ACC schools, then the ACC’s ability to survive would be in jeopardy.  If ESPN profits from the ACC deal, they stand to lose that profit AND suffer the embarrassment of losing ground to Fox.  The Confidential believes that if ESPN wants to have a presence beyond merely the SEC in football and the remnants of the Big East in basketball, it needs to preserve the ACC.  If it wants to do that, it will have to pony up the $$$ to keep the ACC alive.  You know, like it did with the Big XII.

However, ESPN cannot just go around re-negotiating its contracts to pay more money.  It cannot show that little deference to its contracts or otherwise play favorites within the conference scheme.  The loss of Maryland is a one-team change in the conference.  If the ACC were to backfill with UConn or Louisville, ESPN would have to voluntarily renegotiate its contract.  This just cannot happen.

Instead, what needs to happen is that the ACC take on three new teams… such as Louisville, Cincinnati, and UConn.  If that happens, ESPN can renegotiate the TV deal.  It can help narrow the differences with the other conferences, such that the ACC seems less likely to be broken up.  Perhaps it would even be enough to make Florida State happy.  If so, the Big XII would be without effective replacements from the ACC to get to 12 teams.

Now, if the Big XII truly does want 12 teams, suddenly the best options on the table are the Big East schools–with Louisville and Cincinnati perhaps being the best targets, as they would be a nice fit with West Virginia.  Plus, Fox and the Big XII could see taking Louisville and Cincinnati a good measure to block the ACC from getting the revenue increase it needs from ESPN to start evening the balance.  This would make it more likely to eventually land Florida State and Cincinnati.  Indeed, imagine if Cincinnati starts having more TV revenue than Clemson and Florida State.  The pressure on the ACC would be substantial.  It could start to crumble.

On the other hand, the ACC could be pleased to see the Big XII take Louisville and Cincinnati because it would mean less spots available for a future raid of the ACC.  Does the Big XII want Florida State badly enough to go to 14 or 16 teams?  In addition, while Louisville to the ACC makes sense to make Florida State happy, UConn has the location and basketball pedigree to make the hoops schools happy.  In fact, the Big XII does not even need to TAKE Louisville, it just needs to have Louisville sufficiently convinced that the Big XII would take them to defer making a decision.  If Cincinnati is told they are the 16th team, their decision is dependent on both Louisville and UConn accepting.  If UConn accepts first, then it just comes down to whether Louisville is willing to sign on with the ACC or not.  The ACC could end up with UConn, without running the risk of angering Florida State.  After all, the decision was Louisville’s.  It chose the Big XII.

On yet another hand, if you are the Big XII… why care about Louisville and Cincinnati?  The Big XII’s best move would be to take USF with Louisville.  Tampa is a GREAT place for a school.  If the Big 10 can gamble on making Rutgers relevant, why couldn’t the Big XII gamble on USF becoming a clear 4th Florida school?  With Miami down, this is the time to strike.  Of course, USF couldn’t be having a worse year to struggle on the field.  But, from a demographics and recruiting standpoint, this has to be a worthy add.  Or the Big XII could use USF as the partner to try to woo Florida State.  If Clemson is unwilling to abandon the ACC, perhaps USF could do so.  Actually, an argument could be made that the Big XII expanding into Florida by taking BOTH USF and UCF makes some sense.  You get inroads on the Orlando/Tampa markets.  Two HUGE schools.  Again, if the Big 10 is willing to gamble on schools the Big XII.

With more hands than Secretariat, the Confidential has one more.  If the ACC goes to 16 teams, is there room for Notre Dame?  Suddenly, the Fighting Irish are looking at being the 17th school–an unwieldy number.  The ACC may have to move beyond the Fighting Irish at that point.  Maybe drop them down to 4 games per season.  Play each team once every 4 years.  Or this rumor could be a play to get Notre Dame to consider taking Cincinnati’s spot.  Having already sold the alums on the ACC partially, maybe there is a better ability to just bite the bullet and go “all in.”  It’s better than dropping down to the Atlantic-10 or being in the Big XII or Big 10.  For the ACC, if Notre Dame is not going to join now, it is never going to join.  If/when the big money conferences do start poaching the ACC schools, Notre Dame will lose interest.  It’s going to get worse before it gets better.  With ND, perhaps the ACC becomes safe.  Without ND, who knows?

Another hand… if the ACC was smart, it would just negotiate with ESPN to allow Florida State to now keep their Tier III rights.  Allow ND to join the ACC but also keep their Tier III rights.  ND can put theirs on NBC.  Florida State can do whatever it wants with theirs.  Keeping Florida State makes the Southern ACC schools like Clemson and Ga Tech happy.  Getting ND makes everyone happy.  Although ND and FSU would get some extra $$$, is there any doubt that those two schools are, by far, the biggest Kings that the ACC will ever have?  It’s the difference between football relevance and irrelevance.  In 2020’s, the ACC can negotiate something better for Clemson and Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech.  For now, Florida State and Notre Dame can keep those schools in the picture so that their prominence remains stable.

Of course, Occam’s Razor comes into play.  Perhaps the ACC just decided that adding three schools is a good idea.  Or perhaps the rumor is just a rumor.  Who knows anymore?

So, no predictions here… just thoughts.  Feel free to share where you think this is going.

Posted by acaffrey in Conference Realignment and tagged , , , , , , , ,
22 Nov 2012
4 Comments

The Big 10 Universities: Integrity for Sale Long Before the Big Ten Network

Look, the Confidential understands conference realignment.  The Big East was a dumpster fire for several years after the defections of Boston College, Virginia Tech, and Miami.  If Maryland cannot balance its budget, imagine how Pitt, Syracuse, West Virginia, Utah, Rutgers, and TCU felt trying to do the same on 1/2 the revenue (or less).  The Confidential also understands that the TV revenue at issue is real and can fairly be a factor in the realignment decision.  As blogs like Frank the Tank pointed out, you cannot look at expansion without considering the impact on TV revenue.  This is the very concept that makes Rutgers and its athletic futility more valuable than UConn and its multiple national championships and BCS appearance.  The Big 10’s selection of Nebraska showed that on-field product still mattered.  But this latest expansion into Maryland and New Jersey is solely about money.  Unfortunately, this is nothing new–it is just more of the same money-obsession from large, public universities that thrive on research dollars.

In fact, if you look at Frank the Tank’s blog, you’ll see that research dollars are discussed with pride.  A university engaging in $300,000,000 a year in research is deemed “better” than a university that only takes in $100,000,000 a year.  There are rankings and everything, both for comparing current Big 10 teams and differentiating prospective ones.  Apparently, the only criteria for measuring research is the volume.  And the measurement of volume is dollars.  The more the better, regardless of where it comes from and whether it is useful research.  Well, this same approach now applies to the Big Ten and its television network.  It does not matter what is being shown on television, it only matters that it is being shown on television and generating revenue.  Much like research dollars, the only metric that matters is revenue.

The problem, of course, is that research pretends to be objective.  But, as Discover magazine noted several years ago, the trend in research is vastly different than it was approximately 50 years ago:

In 1965, the federal government financed more than 60 percent of all R&D in the United States. By 2006, the balance had flipped, with 65 percent of R&D in this country being funded by private interests.

The conflict of interest becomes obvious.  If research is “for sale,” the integrity of that research soon follows.  If State University takes the $10,000,000 research grant from Conglomerate X, can it conclude that Conglomerate X’s product is dangerous and still get a similar grant the following year?  When you hear that study indicating that using bleach kills 99% of harmful germs, you then hear that it was a study financed by a company that sells bleach.  When you hear that studies show pork to be a healthy alternative to chicken, we the hear that the study was financed by the pork industry.  And so on.

None of this is meant to condemn all research, much less any specific research.  We all hope that cures for diseases are around the corner.  Of course, there is a problem when there is a financial incentive to never find that cure.  If you get $10,000,000 a year for cancer research, curing cancer will mean a reduction in revenue.  This is a corporate conflict of interest problem.  It should not be trickling down to Universities beholden to corporate research.

Strictly speaking, there is no reason why Universities cannot be corporations and maximize revenue to the exclusion of any other particular moral obligations.  But there IS a problem with Universities doing so and pretending to be something other than for-profit industries.  The Confidential just noted the absurdity in not taxing Division I sports revenue.  Well, there needs to be taxation on Universities that are engaging in this level of research.  If you want to be a business, be a business.  If you want to be a tax-free educational institution, cut off the flow from corporate interests.

Although one has to move yet another step beyond sports for a moment, ask yourself where the United States stands in 2012 compared to 1965.  While there are many reasons for it, we no longer “trust” government.  Does anyone see “FDA Approval” and feel comfortable?  As Yale Scientific Magazine notes, the FDA admitted to wrongdoing in 2010 with respect to the approval of a medical device.  If you are not skeptical, go get yourself some Vioxx.  Can we even trust science any more?  Perhaps not if the science is being funded only by interested parties.

Like research, we hope that athletics is also objective.  While people watch figure skating and gymnastics with their subjective scoring in great numbers, many more fans prefer the objectivity of score-based sports.  The better team wins, and you can look at the scoreboard to see who wins.  But as money completely takes over sports, the corresponding loss of integrity and objectivity will suffer.  It is not a surprise that the Big 10 athletic conference cares more about the money it generates than anything else.  This is consistent with the research focus of such Universities.  One has to question when this will, like the FDA, spill over into a lack of integrity on the field.  If all that matters is money, wouldn’t it be prudent and expected for the Big 10 to ensure that 10-0 Ohio State beats 5-5 Maryland in 2018?  Maryland should willingly accept its loss because the following week’s Ohio State-Michigan game will generate more TV revenue, to the benefit of all.  Well, at least as it relates to the only criteria that matters to large, public universities–money.

Carry on, Big 10.  Carry on.

Posted by acaffrey in Conference Realignment, Scandal, Uncategorized and tagged , , , ,
19 Nov 2012
9 Comments

Maryland is Leaving–What it Means

Unless you were living under a rock today, you heard the news that Maryland is leaving the ACC for the Big 10.  Here is the Confidential’s latest take:

1.  Congratulations to the Big 10.

The Big 10 now has 14 teams (assuming the Rutgers rumors are accurate).  Without a doubt, the Big 10 will use these geographical additions to make its universities the wealthiest in the NCAA on a TV revenue basis.  To read Frank the Tank’s commentariat, however, one would think that THIS is the goal of all University athletic programs.  So what if Notre Dame or Alabama win the national title in football, the Big 10 schools get $30M/year?  Revenue has become a statistic not too unlike home runs in baseball or touchdowns in football.  It is a new way of keeping score.  And in this new way of keeping score, the Big 10 will dominate.

However, this new way of keeping score is misdirected.  Nobody cares that Minnesota brings in more money than Florida.  People care that Florida had two national championships in basketball and one in football during the past decade.  The counter-argument, of course, is that lacking money prevents a school from being competitive.  It is not lack of money that keeps Indiana out of the Rose Bowl and Northwestern out of March Madness.  It is not poverty that keeps Ole Miss from going to Sugar Bowls and Auburn from Final Fours.  At the very least, it is not a lack of TV revenue.  A terrible TV contract did not keep UConn from winning national titles.  A terrible TV contract did not keep Boise State from being relevant in football.  Having less money than Illinois is not why Florida State has fallen off the map (and is also irrelevant to how they got back on).  Money only goes so far in making your program interesting on the field.  So, while Maryland will now be able to spend spend spend, it will not alone make the Terps on-court, on-field product any better.

And the correlation is not as direct as one thinks.  After all, the TV revenue is nice, but Ohio State will always have more money.  Michigan will always have more money.  The football elite is elite for a reason.  Having more money than Memphis and Temple is nice, but that does not get you to a nice bowl when you go 2-7 in conference play.

2. Maryland and Rutgers, Part II

Maryland and Rutgers just made decisions that allow them to leapfrog their neighbors in revenue.  And, notwithstanding the caveats above, these schools certainly could use the influx of cash to become better.  More likely, however, is that a kid in New Jersey considering Rutgers now has an even better reason to consider Michigan.  Rutgers and Maryland will receive checks, but a part of those checks is the reality that the elite teams in the Big 10 now have a better chance to take kids from the mid-Atlantic.  Meanwhile, those same kids in that region could still go to Virginia to play a much greater percentage of games within driving distance.  And so on.

3. The ACC’s Future.

As the Big East is proving, it is hard to kill a conference.  But the ACC’s future as a legitimate conference depends on making sound moves in the near future.  The Confidential remains adamant that it be the football schools, rather than the basketball schools, that “get to decide” this next entrant.  The basketball schools are not losing much with Maryland.  This is an opportunity to add the Louisville football program, Charlie Strong, and a nice Southern compliment to Georgia Tech, Clemson, etc.  But, as also noted previously, if Florida State wants Wofford, Swofford needs to go for it.  The basketball schools will be far more relevant if they can maintain the ACC, rather than push the football schools out the door.

As for the football schools, they need to give serious pause before jumping ship.  The Big 10 just took two middling football programs with the confidence that their markets and the injection of revenue will make them stronger football programs.  The same thing is just as likely with Pitt, Syracuse, and whoever team 14 becomes.  The revenue jump for Maryland will not be that much different than the revenue jump from the Big East to the ACC.  If money is so important, then it is just as important for the new additions to the ACC.  Meanwhile, Pitt just landed a top 25 recruit.  Syracuse just beat Missouri on the road to become bowl eligible.  And if the football schools demand Louisville and get it, now you are looking at another top 25 team with a great coach joining the mix.  Not so sure that losing Maryland matters at all.  And football may be on the upswing with these additions.

Oh, and Louisville’s basketball is not too shabby either.  Win/win.

4.  Maryland Leaving Does Not Move the SB Nation Needle Too Much Over the Weekend

As of Sunday, the Confidential could not help but note the lack of discussion on the ACC’s SB Nation representatives until today.  This news was very hot as of Saturday, but only Cardiac Hill (Pitt), TNIIAM (Syracuse), and BC Interruption (Boston College) were really discussing it.  Pretty shocking really.

5.  One More Thing

If Maryland’s donors, such as Mr. Under Armour, are willing to pay towards the exit fee (whatever it is), where were they when Maryland was allegedly in financial dire straits?

Posted by acaffrey in Conference News, Conference Realignment and tagged , , , ,
18 Nov 2012
6 Comments

It’s Time for Congress to Act: Tax NCAA Sports Revenue

Things have gotten a bit crazy in college sports.  The Confidential understands Utah, TCU, and Boise State changing conferences to get a seat at the table.  The Confidential understands West Virginia, Syracuse, Rutgers, Pitt, Colorado, and Nebraska being so sufficiently worried about the future of their conference (at those points in time) to make a move.  The Confidential does not understand Texas A&M and Missouri giving up on the Big XII to go to the SEC, but apparently it was frustration with Texas more than $$$.  But Maryland’s defection to the B1G will show that College Athletics is so ridiculously money-focused (rather than focused on anything non-monetary) that Congress needs to remove the tax-exempt status of Universities.  This is just getting out-of-hand.

The B1G wants Maryland for money, not because it wants a middling basketball program and downtrodden football program.  Maryland wants the B1G for the money, not because it does not have a seat at the table.  Maryland has had a seat at the table for its recent existence–it just has not done much with its seat at that table.  And nobody was threatening to take it away.

Fans of the B1G who care about money first are happy.  Fans of the B1G who care about football or basketball are “meh” at best.  Fans of Maryland who want to see their football and basketball teams succeed are “meh.”  Fans of Maryland who care about money first are happy.  A handful of fans borrow Florida State’s anti-Carolina paranoia, but this is a money move.

Nay, this is ONLY about $$$.

The money in college sports has gotten too out-of-hand for anyone to control it.  How can Maryland’s leadership turn down an extra $10M/year?

The time has come for Congress to step in and give the Universities a choice: go back to being at least somewhat amateur or expect to be taxed.  If the NCAA schools want to equally distribute money and access, then they can continue to operate as a tax-exempt organization.  If they want to set up many levels of tiers, with an increasingly smaller collection of “haves” than “have nots,” then welcome to the business world.

Is it fair to penalize Ohio State and Texas for generating so much revenue?  No.  But it is fair to penalize them for pretending to be a tax-exempt organization while doing so.  You want to get paid like the pros, start paying taxes like the pros.  If you want to make decisions based on how quickly they can get you from $27M to $30M/year, expect to be treated like a business that thinks the same way.

There are many who are too glad to be “haves” to care about this.  But the time will come when that will change too.  Sooner or later, Michigan and Ohio State will begin to resent paying a fair share to Purdue and Minnesota.  Florida will get tired of paying Mississippi.  Washington State and Iowa State?  And then it will get more focused yet–as the basketball schools get cast aside because the money is not there… see ya Kentucky, Duke, Kansas, Indiana.  When you have a system with “haves” and “have nots,” the inevitable course of action is that the “haves” become smaller.

We are about to go from 6 conferences of “haves” to 5 conferences of “haves” to 4 conferences of “haves.”  If Texas leaves the Big XII for a sweetheart deal… how long until there are 3 conferences of “haves.”

None of this sounds like amateurism or true academia.  It sounds like business.

Which is fine, of course.  But prepare to be taxed.

Posted by acaffrey in Conference Realignment and tagged ,
17 Nov 2012
6 Comments

If Maryland Leaves… the ACC NEEDS to Placate Florida State!

The Atlantic Coast Conference leadership must walk into Florida State’s athletic department and ask them who the ACC should add.  If Florida State says “Louisville,” then the ACC needs to go for it.  If Florida State says “Boise State,” then the ACC needs to do it.  If Florida State says “Gardner-Webb,” then the ACC needs to do it.  If Florida State says “Betty White and 70 other 70-year olds,” only then should the ACC pause for a moment before agreeing.

You see… this next move MUST… repeat…. MUST be about football.  The conference needs to do whatever is necessary to keep Florida State happy.  Nobody else is walking out the door if Florida State does not.  Keep Florida State happy and the conference is safe.

Sure, UConn has the coastal location and basketball pedigree.  But they are not a football draw.  And, frankly, Louisville and Rick Pitino are every bit the basketball program that UConn is in the post-Calhoun era.  The ACC should have taken West Virginia along with Pitt and Syracuse.  That would have left the spot for Notre Dame and given the league a football power (WVU), a basketball power (Syracuse), and a little of both and the glue between them (Pitt).

If the ACC thumbs its nose at Florida State again, it might as well start writing its obituary.  Maybe the ACC will survive in the same way that the Big East survives to this day.  But it will never be the same.

ACC… please keep Florida State happy!

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment, Football and tagged , , ,
17 Nov 2012

Maryland’s Turn to Hike the Skirt

After several days of rumors, it appears that there is actually some truth to this–Maryland may be leaving the ACC for the Big 10.  ESPN is reporting that Maryland and the Big 10 are in “serious talks.”

This stuff just does not end.

Posted by acaffrey in Uncategorized and tagged ,
21 Sep 2012

Notre Dame, Penn State and the ACC: Part I

Over at Frank the Tank’s blog, the great commentariat has been analyzing whether the Big 10 expansion to include Nebraska was sufficient.  One of the topics being thrown around is whether Penn State would leave the Big 10 if it did not get a conference partner in the region, such as Rutgers.  Needless to say, the ideas that Penn State would leave the Big 10 or that adding Rutgers to the Big 10 would improve the conference led to a vigorous response.  However, the Confidential cannot help but wonder whether the Notre Dame addition to the ACC could help justify the addition of Penn State.

As a preliminary matter, the Confidential needs to begin by clearly stating that Penn State is not at all likely to leave the Big 10.  How can it?  Penn State gains on so many levels from its Big 10 membership that it would be difficult for any leader to recommend such a move.  And, oh yeah, the money is pretty darn good too.  How does a leader recommend a revenue cut in these tough economic times?  Good luck with that.  So we are delving into the borderline impossible here.

Of course, imagining a football conference with ND, Penn State, Pitt, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Virginia, Syracuse, and BC in the North…wow.  That sure would have to be the “football” move that schools like Florida State and Clemson would love, right?   Penn State will be down for several years, but the school has the infrastructure to be immediately relevant again.  Too much talent in Pennsylvania for Penn State to NOT be a great program.  With a purely geographical split, play 7 division games, plus 2 crossovers… and now you are playing every school, every four years.  It’s hard not to get excited by that.  Increased attendance by having division games with regional appeal.   Increased TV ratings with having more hated rivals on the schedule.

The Confidential questions whether the Grant of Rights is the reason why a Penn State a move to the ACC is impossible.  As the Confidential understands it, the Grant of Rights means that the TV rights to Penn State’s home games belong to the Big 10 for many years.  So, in theory, if Penn State left the Big 10 for the ACC, that Florida State @ Penn State game would be a featured game for the Big 10 Network that week.  And Penn State would get none of that revenue.  Of course, the Big 10 Network would never be foolish enough to pass up that game.  You think Florida State fans would not have an interest in the Big 10 Network that weekend?  Actually, Penn State going to the ACC would be a big boost for the Big 10 Network if that’s where all Penn State’s home games were televised for 20 years.  Penn State fans would still get to see those home games on TV.

True, the ACC would lose the right to receive the TV revenue from Penn State home games until the Grant of Rights expired.  HOWEVER, the ACC just reached a deal with Notre Dame that allows for 2-3 home games for ACC teams.  And the thought process is that this will ADD value to the ACC contract.  The Confidential cannot help but wonder… if 2-3 home games per year featuring Notre Dame adds value to  the TV contract, wouldn’t 4-5 road games at ACC sites featuring Penn State add to the ACC contract too?  From the ACC’s perspective the Grant of Rights is not any worse than the Notre Dame deal.

So the only real question is how to make it work for Penn State.  If they are leaving the Big 10, they are losing their Big 10 revenue.  Instead, they would be getting a partial share of the ACC TV revenue, which is far worse for them than a full share of the Big 10 revenue.  Again, no university could ever accept that.  Unless the ACC schools were willing to give Penn State a full share while awaiting the expiration of the Grant of Rights–which would still be quite a revenue shave for Penn State–it is simply impossible to fathom how Penn State could make such a move.

So the only way to make this work is for the ACC to do something truly radical.

In Part II of this article, the Confidential will explore whether there is a radical way for the ACC to finance the unrealistic, nearly impossible, and purely hypothetical addition of Penn State.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment, Football and tagged , , , , , ,
19 Sep 2012

ACC To Determine Notre Dame’s 5 Football Opponents

The announcement of the ACC partnership with Notre Dame was accompanied by news that Notre Dame would play 5 opponents per year, as well as every team every there years.  ACC commissioner John Swofford explained recently that the ACC, rather than Notre Dame, will have the decision as to which 5 opponents Notre Dame plays every year:

Q: How will you allocate the five Notre Dame football games to your conference members?

A: It’s up to the ACC to do that. Notre Dame will accept whatever five games the ACC gives them on any given year. Conceptually what we intend to do is rotate through the entire membership — 14 schools for those five games. We do have some teams that currently have contracts with Notre Dame and we need to take a look at that. We would like to accomplish this without disrupting those particular games that are currently under contract. But once we reach a clean point the idea is to rotate the games through the membership. So that every school knows they will get Notre Dame once every three years either in their home stadium or at Notre Dame.

This, of course, is notably different from the Notre Dame “promise” to schedule 3 games a year against Big East teams.  What has been negotiated is Notre Dame limiting itself to 7 games it can schedule and leaving the rest up to the ACC.

While nobody should be under the illusion that the ACC will make these scheduling decisions in total disregard for Notre Dame’s interests, the bottom line is that the deal between the ACC and Notre Dame is quite an acquiescence by Notre Dame.  After all, Notre Dame could have requested the right to determine its opponents each year.  In any event, this allows the ACC to schedule every team, every three years… plus allow one team to play Notre Dame twice in that period.

It will be interesting to see how this impacts the already-existing contracts between Notre Dame and ACC schools.  Even Swofford has no idea how that will work out yet.  Stay tuned.

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference News, Conference Realignment, Football and tagged , , , , ,
28 Aug 2012
2 Comments

Realignment News: SEC Looking at Clemson (+ NC State?) & Florida State Willing to Do Anything to Leave ACC

After a quiet several weeks on the conference realignment front, and despite the football season being 2 days away, here come some more rumors.  Specifically, there is scuttlebutt that the SEC will be looking to add Clemson as its 15th team and then invest some time deciding on which team would be the best fit for team #16.  Naturally, with the ever-wandering eye, Florida State is shaving its legs and hiking up its skirt to attract attention from any conference willing to look its way.

First, the SEC motivation appears based on the desire remove the geographical split and create an All-Tigers pod.  Although the conventional wisdom is that Florida State or Virginia Tech would be the logical 16th team due to prowess, the SEC has long coveted entry into the North Carolina market.  So North Carolina State is actually in the lead for the last spot.  Plus, again, it helps make fun pods.  After all, consider these pods, which are so much smoother with North Carolina State:

  • The Tigers pod: LSU, Auburn, Missouri, Clemson
  • The Dogs & Cats pod: Georgia, Mississippi State, Kentucky, North Carolina State
  • The People pod: Texas A&M, Tennessee, Mississippi, Vanderbilt
  • The Potpourri pod: Florida, Alabama, Arkansas, South Carolina

With all the trouble that the SEC has had trying to figure out a balanced schedule with an East-West split without losing so many important traditional rivalries, it looks like the conference is ready to just throw its hands up in the air and use the nicknames to “randomize” the distribution.

Second, Florida State remains eager to find any conference that will take it away from the Inner Circle of Hell Atlantic Coast Conference.  At this point, the Seminoles are willing to do whatever it takes to convince a conference to allow them to spare them the agony of overreacting to things handed down by the conference.  And we mean anything.  These are the only things that can be printed in this blog:

  • Changing its team nickname to the Tigers to try to get in on the Tigers thing that the SEC obviously has going on;
  • Changing its name to East Texas State to get the Longhorns to cease opposing Big XII expansion;
  • Committing major violations to land on probation so that the B1G will feel more comfortable adding them to the mix of its all-sanctioned kings: Nebraska, Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan; and
  • Stressing to the “soon-t0-be 65% as rich as the ACC, but also 0% ACC (which is all that matters)” Big East that its basketball team having more success than its football team is a trend that will continue.

To its credit, Florida State is not trying to join the Pac-12.  Although the Florida collegiate system deems its Tampa-university to be “South Florida,” apparently there is SOMEONE in the state who pays a little attention to the map.

Never a dull moment when it comes to real or pretend expansion news.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment, Non-Serious, Sarcasm and tagged , , , , ,

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