The Confidential

The ACC Sports Blog

Author Archive

08 Aug 2016
1 Comment

The Confidential’s 2016 Football Over-Under: North Carolina

Last year, the Confidential unveiled over-unders for each ACC school.  For North Carolina, the over-under was set at 7.5 regular season wins.  Ultimately, the Tar Heels ended up with 11 regular season wins, sweeping the regular season after a disappointing loss to an underwhelming South Carolina team in Week 1.  But now it is on to 2016.  The Confidential sets the over-under for North Carolina at 8.5 regular season wins.

Here is the schedule for 2016, courtesy of a great football site:

9/3 Sat @ Georgia
9/10 Sat @ Illinois
9/17 Sat vs. James Madison
9/24 Sat vs. *Pittsburgh
10/1 Sat @ *Florida State
10/8 Sat vs. *Virginia Tech
10/15 Sat @ *Miami (Florida)
10/22 Sat @ *Virginia
11/5 Sat vs. *Georgia Tech
11/10 Thu @ *Duke
11/19 Sat vs. Citadel
11/25 Fri vs. *North Carolina State

Very likely wins: James Madison, Citadel

Very likely losses: @ Georgia, @ Florida State

Verdict: Last year was a great year for North Carolina, with a final record of 11-3.  The 11-straight regular season wins was substantially impressive and the one regular season loss to South Carolina was in Game 1.  This year, North Carolina starts with an even more difficult SEC foe–Georgia.  Then, Illinois on the road.  Should be a win, but a Big 10 school at home is hard to characterize as a “very likely” win, regardless of the talent.  Despite the talent in Chapel Hill, it is hard to find “very likely” wins on a schedule that has many wins that would not be surprising, but just not enough certainty to be even surprised by a loss.  Virginia and Duke are on the road.  Who knows what Miami and Virginia Tech will be under new coaches?  All in all, the Confidential just does not see North Carolina doing nearly as well as last year.  That means an over-under of 8.5 regular season wins.

What do you think?  Will North Carolina go over or under 8.5 regular season wins?

 

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Opinion, Over/Under, Schedule and tagged , , ,
07 Aug 2016

Keeping Up With the Over-Unders

Every year, the Confidential does over-unders for each ACC school, based solely on the regular season.  In 2014, we had 6 schools correctly pegged within 1/2 a win of their ultimate totals.  In 2015, we improved to 7 schools correctly pegged within a 1/2 a win of their ultimate total.  And now it is on to 2016.  Here is a running look at the Confidential’s over-unders for 2016:

Notre Dame: 10.5 wins

Florida State: 9.5 wins

Miami: 8.5 wins

Louisville: 7.5 wins

Virginia Tech: 7.5 wins

Pitt: 7.5 wins

North Carolina State: 5.5 wins

Virginia: 5.5 wins

Boston College: 5.5 wins

Syracuse: 4.5 wins

By far, the most controversial selection was Louisville at only 7.5 wins.  However, with road trips to Syracuse, Marshall, Virginia, Boston College, and Houston–it is asking a lot of the Cardinals to avoid tripping up against three of its four easiest conference games and two challenging OOC games.  Meanwhile, Florida State and Clemson remain on the schedule.  Notre Dame at 10.5 wins surprised some folks too, but look at who the Fighting Irish play and where.  In any event, it is what it is.

Still to come: Clemson, Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Wake Forest

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Opinion, Over/Under and tagged , , , ,
07 Aug 2016
2 Comments

The Confidential’s 2016 Football Over-Under: North Carolina State

Last year, the Confidential unveiled over-unders for each ACC school.  For North Carolina State, the over-under was set at 7.5 regular season wins.  Ultimately, NC State ended up with 7 regular season wins, bolstered by four easy out-of-conference games scheduled.  But now it is on to 2016.  The Confidential sets the over-under for NC State at 5.5 regular season wins.

Here is the schedule for 2016, courtesy of a great football site:

9/1 Thu vs. William & Mary
9/10 Sat @ East Carolina
9/17 Sat vs. Old Dominion
10/1 Sat vs. *Wake Forest
10/8 Sat vs. Notre Dame
10/15 Sat @ *Clemson
10/22 Sat @ *Louisville
10/29 Sat vs. *Boston College
11/5 Sat vs. *Florida State
11/12 Sat @ *Syracuse
11/19 Sat vs. *Miami (Florida)
11/25 Fri @ *North Carolina

Very likely wins: William & Mary, Old Dominion, one of Boston College or Wake Forest

Very likely losses: Notre Dame, @ Clemson, Florida State

Verdict: Last year’s out-of-conference schedule for North Carolina State was pathetically easy.  This year, there is a slight uptick.  Of course, with the forced game against Notre Dame, it was the ACC, rather than the school, making the change.  At the same time, East Carolina will be a self-inflicted challenge.  Ask Virginia Tech.  So this is a definite increase in scheduling difficulty.  Within the conference, the Wolfpack have it very tough also, with road trips to North Carolina, Syracuse, and Louisville within the toss-up games.  With only six toss-ups, and three very likely losses, it is not hard to see NC State taking a step back from its 7 win season.  In fact, this much tougher schedule could mean a few steps back, including potentially missing a bowl.  The Confidential goes with an over-under at that mark–5.5 wins.

What do you think?  Will NC State go over or under 5.5 regular season wins?

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Opinion, Over/Under, Schedule and tagged , , ,
03 Aug 2016

August Distraction: The AP Top 100

The Associated Press decided to take a look back at its 80 years of issuing polls to generate a “top 100.”  They used a formula that took into consideration appearances in polls, #1 rankings, and national championships.  The top five schools using that criteria turn out to be Ohio State, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Alabama and Southern California.   But how did the ACC schools do?

  • Notre Dame #3
  • Florida State #9 (non-conference rival Florida was #10)
  • Miami #13
  • Clemson #22 (non-conference rival South Carolina was #48)
  • Pittsburgh #23 (non-conference rival West Virginia was #33)
  • Georgia Tech #26 (non-conference rival Georgia was #15)
  • Virginia Tech #31
  • North Carolina #38
  • Syracuse #41
  • Virginia #52
  • Duke #53
  • NC State #56
  • Boston College #57
  • Louisville #62 (non-conference rival Kentucky was #68)
  • Wake Forest #80

Thus, all ACC teams made the top 100.  Which is nice.

Clemson is WAY above South Carolina.  In fact, of the schools with SEC rivals, only Georgia Tech failed to finished higher than its counterpart.

Syracuse finished at #41, despite not being ranked since 2001.  One can only wonder how much higher the Orange would have been if the list had been tallied back then.  Of course, if they had not hired Greg Robinson… nevermind.

And Wake Forest was not the lowest P5 school.  Iowa State, Rutgers, and Vanderbilt all earned that status.

In fact, do you want to know how pathetic Rutgers is?  Rutgers finished behind Holy Cross and Fordham.  And Big 10 fans think Rutgers is a NYC school!  Sadly, Rutgers is also a football school… certainly not known for their elite hoops.  Other schools to top Rutgers were Army, Penn, Rice, Tulane, Wyoming, Cornell, Toledo, and Santa Clara.

Big XII expansion candidates: BYU: #34, Houston: #49, Colorado State: #77, Cincinnati: #81, USF: #94.  UConn, Memphis, and Central Florida did not make the list.

In any event, even excluding Notre Dame, the ACC had 14 schools in the top 80– 17.5%, which is just under the 20% expected as one of 5 power conferences.  And with 8 of the top 41 teams (40 excluding Notre Dame), that works out to exactly 20%.  Naturally, including Notre Dame makes things look even better.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, News and tagged ,
02 Aug 2016
2 Comments

The Confidential’s 2016 Football Over-Under: Virginia

Last year, the Confidential unveiled over-unders for each ACC school.  For Virginia, the over-under was set at 4.5 regular season wins.  Ultimately, Virginia ended up with 4 regular season wins, under an already-low number and enough to lead to a coaching change.  But now it is on to 2016.  The Confidential sets the over-under for Virginia at 5.5 regular season wins.

Here is the schedule for 2016, courtesy of a great football site:

9/3 Sat vs. Richmond
9/10 Sat @ Oregon
9/17 Sat @ Connecticut
9/24 Sat vs. Central Michigan
10/1 Sat @ *Duke
10/15 Sat vs. *Pittsburgh
10/22 Sat vs. *North Carolina
10/29 Sat vs. *Louisville
11/5 Sat @ *Wake Forest
11/12 Sat vs. *Miami (Florida)
11/19 Sat @ *Georgia Tech
11/26 Sat @ *Virginia Tech

Very likely wins: Richmond, Central Michigan

Very likely losses: @ Oregon, @ Virginia Tech

Verdict: Virginia has an interesting schedule.  Avoiding Clemson, Florida State, and Notre Dame makes it softish in-conference.  Trips to Connecticut and Wake Forest make those games less winnable.  Hosting Pitt, UNC, Miami, and Louisville makes those games less automatically losable.  Trips to Duke, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech will, or at least should be, very tough.  All in all, it is not hard to see Virginia winning anywhere from 3 to 8 games.  Still, it is tough to envision Virginia being likely to come out on the high side of that range.  So the Confidential will go with an over-under of 5.5 wins.

What do you think?  Will Virginia go over or under 5.5 regular season wins?

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Opinion, Over/Under, Schedule and tagged , , ,
01 Aug 2016
2 Comments

The Confidential’s 2016 Football Over-Under: Florida State

Last year, the Confidential unveiled over-unders for each ACC school.  For Florida State, the over-under was set at 10.5 regular season wins.  Ultimately, FSU ended up with 10 regular season wins.  But now it is on to 2016.  The Confidential sets the over-under for the Seminoles at 9.5 regular season wins.

Here is the schedule for 2016, courtesy of a great football site:

9/5 Mon vs. Mississippi @ Orlando, FL
9/10 Sat vs. Charleston Southern
9/17 Sat @ *Louisville
9/24 Sat @ South Florida
10/1 Sat vs. *North Carolina
10/8 Sat @ *Miami (Florida)
10/15 Sat vs. *Wake Forest
10/29 Sat vs. *Clemson
11/5 Sat @ *North Carolina State
11/11 Fri vs. *Boston College
11/19 Sat @ *Syracuse
11/26 Sat vs. Florida

Very likely wins: Charleston Southern, South Florida, N.C., Wake Forest, NC State, BC, Syracuse

Very likely losses: None

Verdict: It is not hard to find a bunch of wins for Florida State.  It is also not hard to find some potential losses–Mississippi, @ Louisville, @ Miami, Clemson, and Florida.  Perhaps more potential losses than most recent years.  And last year the Seminoles came in under the 10.5 mark–with 10 regular season wins.  The Confidential thinks that it is unlikely that Florida State does worse than last year, but with 5 real tough games in there, a 9.5 over-under makes the most sense. Many will say “over,” but so be it.

What do you think?  Will FSU go over or under 9.5 regular season wins?

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Opinion, Over/Under, Schedule and tagged , , ,
09 Jul 2016

By Popular Demand–the ACC Survivor Pool is Back for 2016!

The Confidential’s Survivor Pool is back for 2016!  2015 went down to the wire… see results here.  For 2016, we are back, continuing the double-elimination format!  Sign up today!

We are limiting this to the first 100 entrants.  Last year’s entrants were given a heads up to join.  Now opening this up to all ACC fans. 

Winner gets $50.00 via PayPal.  See the official rules here:

http://www.officefootballpool.com/pools.cfm?poolid=115035&p=2&pwd=n%2Arbaa

Pool ID Number: 115035
Pool Entry Code: n*rbaa

With thousands of ACC fans, sign up today!

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only and tagged , ,
04 Jul 2016
1 Comment

The Confidential’s 2016 Football Over-Under: Virginia Tech

Happy Independence Day!  Last year, the Confidential unveiled over-unders for each ACC school. For Virginia Tech, the over-under was set at 6.5 regular season wins. Ultimately, Frank Beamer’s last season resulted in 6 wins (under) and a bowl win, allowing him to go out on a great streak of 23 straight bowl appearances.  But now it is on to 2016 and a new coach. The Confidential sets the over-under for Va Tech at 7.5 regular season wins.

Here is the schedule for 2016, courtesy of a great college football website:

9/3 Sat vs. Liberty
9/10 Sat @ Tennessee
9/17 Sat vs. *Boston College
9/24 Sat vs. East Carolina
10/8 Sat @ *North Carolina
10/15 Sat @ *Syracuse
10/20 Thu vs. *Miami (Florida)
10/27 Thu @ *Pittsburgh
11/5 Sat @ *Duke
11/12 Sat vs. *Georgia Tech
11/19 Sat @ Notre Dame
11/26 Sat vs. *Virginia

Very likely wins: Liberty, Boston College, Syracuse, Virginia

Very likely losses: Notre Dame

Verdict: Like Miami, it is hard to know whether a new coach will take a step back or step forward.  Or neither.  Virginia Tech lost a legend, make no mistake.  In the end, every game is winnable, while upsets of the Hokies are certainly possible as well.  Tennessee will be a huge test, as the Volunteers should be a very good squad.  At the same time, East Carolina always plays the Hokies tough.  There are few guarantees.  The Confidential sets the over-under at 7.5 wins.

What do you think? Will BC go over or under 7.5 regular season wins?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Opinion, Over/Under, Schedule and tagged , , ,
03 Jul 2016

The Confidential’s 2016 Football Over-Under: Boston College

Last year, the Confidential unveiled over-unders for each ACC school.  For Boston College, the over-under was set at 7.5 regular season wins.  Ultimately, B.C. started out by out-scoring its opponents 100-3, and held tight with Florida State until suffering a QB injury.  After beating Northern Illinois, the Eagles would lose out.  But now it is on to 2016.  The Confidential sets the over-under for Boston College at 5.5 regular season wins.

Here is the schedule for 2016, courtesy of a great college football website:

9/3 Sat vs. *Georgia Tech
9/10 Sat vs. Massachusetts @ Foxboro, MA
9/17 Sat @ *Virginia Tech
9/24 Sat vs. Wagner
10/1 Sat vs. Buffalo
10/7 Fri vs. *Clemson
10/22 Sat vs. *Syracuse
10/29 Sat @ *North Carolina State
11/5 Sat vs. *Louisville
11/11 Fri @ *Florida State
11/19 Sat vs. Connecticut
11/26 Sat @ *Wake Forest

Very likely wins: UMass, Wagner, Buffalo, UConn (wow, weak OOC schedule this year for the Eagles)

Very likely losses: FSU, Clemson, @ Virginia Tech

Verdict: Unlike Syracuse, Boston College appears to be eschewing the over-scheduling curse.  Gone is Southern Cal–enter a Mac-tastic opponent in Buffalo, local foes UConn and UMass, and an FCS-tilt against Wagner.  This is a legitimate chance at 4 wins.  The conference slate it typically tough, with trips to Wake Forest and NC State making things a challenge.  But if B.C. can upset Georgia Tech week one at home, the Eagles will be well-positioned to go 2-6 in conference, yet find themselves a bowl bid even without a single upset.  This is what a rebuilding program MUST DO to regain relevance.  The Confidential sets the over-under at 5.5 wins.

What do you think?  Will BC go over or under 5.5 regular season wins?

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Opinion, Over/Under, Schedule and tagged , , ,
02 Jul 2016

The Confidential’s 2016 Football Over-Under: Miami

Last year, the Confidential unveiled over-unders for each ACC school.  For Miami, the over-under was set at 6.5 regular season wins.  Ultimately, Miami ended up with 8 regular season wins.  But now it is on to 2016.  The Confidential sets the over-under for Miami at 8.5 regular season wins.

Here is the schedule for 2016, courtesy of a great college football website:

9/3 Sat vs. Florida A&M
9/10 Sat vs. Florida Atlantic
9/17 Sat @ Appalachian State
10/1 Sat @ *Georgia Tech
10/8 Sat vs. *Florida State
10/15 Sat vs. *North Carolina
10/20 Thu @ *Virginia Tech
10/29 Sat @ Notre Dame
11/5 Sat vs. *Pittsburgh
11/12 Sat @ *Virginia
11/19 Sat @ *North Carolina State
11/26 Sat vs. *Duke

Very likely wins: Florida Atlantic, @ App State

Very likely losses: Notre Dame, Florida State

Verdict: Miami had a good season last year relative to outsider expectations, but it was not enough to save Al Golden’s job.  Moreover, the team seemed to improve without him.  Enter the Mark Richt era.  Some new coaches immediately improve teams, others take a season to adjust.  Who knows with Miami?  It is difficult to see many “very likely wins,” as even a trip to Appalachian State can be dangerous.  The lighter conference foes on the schedule (Virginia, NC State, Georgia Tech) are all road games.  But there is not a game on the schedule that cannot be won–even FSU and Notre Dame–either.  This becomes a crap shoot.  Improvement is expected, but it might not yet result in more wins.  Or it might.  The Confidential goes with an over-under of 8.5 regular season wins.

What do you think?  Will Pitt go over or under 8.5 regular season wins?

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Opinion, Over/Under, Schedule and tagged , , , ,

Post Navigation

← Older Entries
Newer Entries →