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The Confidential

The ACC Sports Blog

Miami Football: The Over/Under

This article is the next in a series of articles in which the Confidential selects the over/under for football wins in 2014.  We’ll take a cursory look at the schedule and determine what we think is the point where folks will struggle to select “over” or “under.”  We hope people will share their comments as to “why” they are going over/under.  If you disagree with our over/under choice, of course, feel free to let us know too.  The fourth team up: Miami.  We are going with an over/under of 7.5.

Here is the Miami schedule:

2014 Schedule:

Sept. 1 at Louisville* Louisville, Ky.
Sept. 6 FLORIDA A&M Sun Life Stadium
Sept. 13 ARKANSAS STATE Sun Life Stadium
Sept. 20 at Nebraska Lincoln, Neb.
Sept. 27 DUKE* Sun Life Stadium
Oct. 4 at Georgia Tech* Atlanta, Ga.
Oct. 11 CINCINNATI Sun Life Stadium
Oct. 18 -OPEN DATE-
Oct. 23 at Virginia Tech* Blacksburg, Va.
Nov. 1 NORTH CAROLINA* Sun Life Stadium
Nov. 8 -OPEN DATE-
Nov. 15 FLORIDA STATE* Sun Life Stadium
Nov. 22 at Virginia* Charlottesville, Va.
Nov. 29 PITTSBURGH* Sun Life Stadium

Likely losses: Florida State, @ Virginia Tech, @ Nebraska

Likely wins:  Florida A&M, Arkansas St., North Carolina, Cincinnati, @ Virginia

Toss-ups: Duke, @ Louisville, @ Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh

Like most ACC teams, Miami is hard to figure out.   The Virginia, Pitt, Cincinnati, and Duke games were all interchangeable.  We figured Pitt was a more likely loss than Virginia just because Pitt may need that game more to get to bowl eligibility.  Otherwise, we would have figured the road game would be the more likely loss.  In any event, it is not hard to find 6 wins for bowl eligibility, but it is not hard to find 5 or 6 losses too.  This is especially true when you look at who the road games are (Nebraska, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Georgia Tech, and Virginia), and that one of the home games is Florida State.  We are going to go conservative with Miami and say that the over/under is 7.5 wins.

What do you think?  Let us know on here or on Twitter @ acconfi.

Other over/unders: Wake Forest (4.5), Virginia (4.5), Notre Dame (8.5)

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16 thoughts on “Miami Football: The Over/Under

  1. I see 7 wins for Miami. The opening game will be important for the Cards to get off on the right foot with their new coach & QB. Whoever wins that game will have the best shot to get to 8 wins.

  2. I think I’m going to take 8 wins for Miami. I don’t see Nebraska as a likely loss, more of a toss up with home field advantage offsetting the major losses at QB and OL. Miami overall has some talented pieces but literally no QB what so ever. Beating Louisville would be huge for them and if they lose there it could be a long year in south Florida.

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