Miami Football: The Over/Under
This article is the next in a series of articles in which the Confidential selects the over/under for football wins in 2014. We’ll take a cursory look at the schedule and determine what we think is the point where folks will struggle to select “over” or “under.” We hope people will share their comments as to “why” they are going over/under. If you disagree with our over/under choice, of course, feel free to let us know too. The fourth team up: Miami. We are going with an over/under of 7.5.
Here is the Miami schedule:
|Sept. 1||at Louisville*||Louisville, Ky.|
|Sept. 6||FLORIDA A&M||Sun Life Stadium|
|Sept. 13||ARKANSAS STATE||Sun Life Stadium|
|Sept. 20||at Nebraska||Lincoln, Neb.|
|Sept. 27||DUKE*||Sun Life Stadium|
|Oct. 4||at Georgia Tech*||Atlanta, Ga.|
|Oct. 11||CINCINNATI||Sun Life Stadium|
|Oct. 18||-OPEN DATE-|
|Oct. 23||at Virginia Tech*||Blacksburg, Va.|
|Nov. 1||NORTH CAROLINA*||Sun Life Stadium|
|Nov. 8||-OPEN DATE-|
|Nov. 15||FLORIDA STATE*||Sun Life Stadium|
|Nov. 22||at Virginia*||Charlottesville, Va.|
|Nov. 29||PITTSBURGH*||Sun Life Stadium|
Likely losses: Florida State, @ Virginia Tech, @ Nebraska
Likely wins: Florida A&M, Arkansas St., North Carolina, Cincinnati, @ Virginia
Toss-ups: Duke, @ Louisville, @ Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh
Like most ACC teams, Miami is hard to figure out. The Virginia, Pitt, Cincinnati, and Duke games were all interchangeable. We figured Pitt was a more likely loss than Virginia just because Pitt may need that game more to get to bowl eligibility. Otherwise, we would have figured the road game would be the more likely loss. In any event, it is not hard to find 6 wins for bowl eligibility, but it is not hard to find 5 or 6 losses too. This is especially true when you look at who the road games are (Nebraska, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Georgia Tech, and Virginia), and that one of the home games is Florida State. We are going to go conservative with Miami and say that the over/under is 7.5 wins.
What do you think? Let us know on here or on Twitter @ acconfi.