The Confidential

Duke Football: The Over/Under

This article is the next in a series of articles in which the Confidential selects the over/under for football wins in 2014.  We’ll take a cursory look at the schedule and determine what we think is the point where folks will struggle to select “over” or “under.”  We hope people will share their comments as to “why” they are going over/under.  If you disagree with our over/under choice, of course, feel free to let us know too.  The ninth team up: Duke.  We are going with an over/under of 8.5.

Here is the Duke schedule:

AUGUST
30 – ELON (2-10)

SEPTEMBER
6 – at Troy (6-6)
13 – KANSAS (3-9)
20 – TULANE (7-6)
27 – at Miami (9-4)

OCTOBER
4 – Open
11 – at Georgia Tech (7-6)
18 – VIRGINIA (2-10)
25 – Open

NOVEMBER
1 – at Pitt (7-6)
8 – at Syracuse (7-6)
15 – VIRGINIA TECH (8-5)
20 – NORTH CAROLINA (7-6)
29 – WAKE FOREST (4-8)

Likely losses: @ Miami

Likely wins:  Elon, Troy, Kansas, Tulane, Wake Forest, Virginia

Toss-ups: @ Pitt, @ Syracuse, North Carolina, @ Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech

Give credit to Duke.  They are following the Rutgers model of pitiful scheduling leading to impressive record.  Unlike Rutgers, however, Duke took it to the next level by having vast conference success as well.  Duke finished 10-2, before losing its two post-season games.  This year, the schedule is even more favorable.  No Florida State, Clemson, Louisville, or Notre Dame.  If this isn’t a reason to support getting rid of the division format, what is?  We think that 8.5 is the magic number for Duke.  Can they hold serve on the “likely wins,” while taking three of the toss-ups?  We’ll see.  The over/under for Duke is 8.5.

What do you think?  Let us know on here or on Twitter @ acconfi.

Other over/unders: Wake Forest (4.5), Virginia (4.5), Notre Dame (8.5), Miami (7.5), NC State (5.5), North Carolina (6.5), Boston College (5.5), Virginia Tech (8.5), Duke (8.5)