The Confidential

Panic Button?

Turnovers, and lots of ’em helped guide a determined and pesky Houston Cougar football team to a fairly shocking 34-31 win over Louisville this past Saturday at a packed PJCS, dropping the Cards to 0-2 on the season and successfully pissing off 50K+ fans for the evening. In addition to the careless turnovers on Saturday, a day full of Pop Warner’esque type tackling also killed the Cards on defense as well as on special teams helped lead to their slow demise. Add to the fact that the Cards somehow found it’s way into another QB controversy – this time involving Junior Kyle Bolin & freshman Lamar Jackson – and there is a wide array of issues and concerns fogging up the room as the Cards ACC opener against a nationally ranked Clemson squad in just three days looms. Is it time to hit the ever dreaded panic button?

Prior to the season opener against Auburn, most agreed that UofL’s defense would be it’s ace in the hole and the primary reason to believe that the Cards could make a run at an ACC title. Being that UofL has yet to play a league game, there is still the possibility that Louisville can indeed right the ship and make noise within it’s conference. But if that is going to transpire, things have to change…..quickly. Specifically, the Cards are gonna have to start getting their defense off the field sooner rather than later in games. After two games, as a team UofL has recorded a total of two (2) sacks.

To add salt to the futile sack performance fact wound, both sacks have been recorded by the same player, senior Keith Kelsey, a linebacker. That simply means that highly touted players up front such as Devante Fields, Sheldon Rankins and De’Angelo Brown have yet to bring down a QB while in the pocket – not good. Clemson’s QB, Deshaun Watson, is savvy and athletic and if Todd Grantham is unable to find ways to get him to the ground without him getting to the outside then it could be a long night for the once heralded Louisville defense yet again. Note to team: watch film, tackle quarterback…..often and early.

Deshaun Watson

As a fan and observant viewer, yes I am semi-concerned about UofL’s defense as a whole at the moment. My biggest fears lie in the secondary where despite early outstanding play from Josh Harvey-Clemons, the word of the day is “burnt”. I am ever so slowly growing leary of watching Trumaine Washington and Zykiesis Cannon line up against opposing wideouts only to watch them get torched for big gains and touchdowns. But despite the overall play of this Louisville defense as a unit, the thing that keeps me up at night is the offensive line. Not being able to consistently run the ball with a fairly inexperienced offensive line against Auburn is one thing. Struggling to move the rock on the ground at home against Houston is another ball of wax all together that frankly shouldn’t happen. The O-line DID show some signs of coming together during Kyle Bolin’s first series at QB on Saturday when the running game came alive and helped produce a quick touchdown highlighted by easy yards compliments of Brandon Radcliff and Jeremy Smith. Bottom line: hit somebody in the mouth. This line HAS to do a better job of creating lanes between the tackles and keeping the pocket from collapsing on virtually every snap. Sure, a freak athlete like Lamar Jackson may possess the skills to evade an overly pursuant defensive line but that will not be the case if Kyle Bolin is running the show. Bolin will need time and a clean pocket to work his mojo. But there is no argument that UofL’s offense looked much more like a Bobby Petrino oriented offensive attack against Houston with a conventional drop back passer in Bolin in contrast to the spread with Lamar Jackson.

Frankly, I haven’t a clue what’s gonna happen this Thursday when Clemson rolls into The Ville. The only certainties for me will be a few pre game cold beverages in the green lot and me potentially losing my voice by halftime. I am really hoping to see a high level of energy from the players, something that was absent on Saturday. If you can’t get up for a conference home opener against a nationally ranked opponent that you let off the hook last season then you need guidance. I’m hoping to see the Cards pound the running game early and often. As for who plays quarterback…..hell, I don’t care if it’s the Easter Bunny as long as he’s efficient and protects the pigskin. Another thing I am hoping to see is the continued emergence of WR Jaquay Savage (formerly Williams) as he was a man among boys against the Cougars while hauling in passss like this…….

 Jaquay Savage

I’m not a big cliché’ guy, but for once I might begin prescribing to the “we are young” notion the more I look at the current makeup of UofL’s roster. Now, I am well aware that UofL’s defense is primarily made up of upper classmen. Aside from that, the Cards have youth everywhere you look, especially at the WR position. Guys like true freshmen Traveon Samuel, Jaylen Smith and Devante Peete need to play beyond their years on Thursday and make some big plays. I hope the fans stay behind this team like they have other late blossoming squads in years passed. In time, I think Petrino will finally settle on a QB and the offense will find some resemblance of a consistent attack. The fans need to be vocal on Thursday and decked out in their finest black UofL threads. Clemson won’t be intimidated, yet I think the fan base could do more for this young UofL team by simply giving it the extra boost of adrenaline it so badly needs. Now is not time to get complacent and start second guessing things. Now is the time to lace ’em up and prove you won’t get pushed around at home for a second consecutive game.

Louisville 30

Clemson 24

Me and my fellow Cardinal fans in the Green Lot afterwards be like…..

What If?

If Lamar Jackson had played four full quarters…..

If one measly fumble had not been taken back to the house for six……

If the Cards had not jumped off sides inside the last minute of regulation…….

If UofL makes and Auburn misses long field goal tries……..

If Verne Lundquist knew the pronunciation 1/2 of UofL’s roster even w/a cheat sheet (Bobby Vetrino is the man!)…….

If pigs could fly……

As a Cardinal fan one could only lament the “what ifs” until the cows came home following Saturday’s 31-24 loss to Auburn in the Georgia Dome this past Saturday. The game featured a dominant Auburn performance in the first half (at least on the scoreboard) followed by a second half that showcased a completely different Lousville team, most notably due to the quarterback play of true freshman Lamar Jackson.

Lamar Jackson

In the end it was Louisville’s inability to refrain from self-inflicted wounds that caused their demise. And the wound that caused the most damage was an untimely fumble late in the first half that directly lead to an 85 yard fumble recovery leading to an Auburn touchdown. In addition to the fumble, the Cards did themselves no favors either by getting cute on the opening offensive play of the game and coughing up an easy interception that gave the Tigers great field position on Louisville’s side of the 50. Shortly later, Auburn marched in for a relatively easy score against a defense that started out playing on it’s heels. And to be honest, after UofL went on to miss a short field goal and cough up 10 more points, I was beginning to think along the lines of……..

But then there was the second half and the birth of a potential future phenom in Jacskon………..

This may sound cliche and I have heard it muttered by a handful of other UofL fans that I communicate with almost daily, but I am not sure if I have ever felt more positive about a Louisville Football loss in recent memory post Saturday. Sure, I was optimistic back in 2004 when an underdog UofL squad lost a heartbreaker to Miami 41-38 (screw you Devin Hester) because the Cards, despite loss, had garnered some national respect and found some positives that would help drive the engine toward a successful season climaxing in a bowl win over a nationally ranked Boise State team. Saturday’s game left me feeling the same way although at this point UofL has already gained and solidified respect from the media and fans alike.

So, despite a solid second half showing on Saturday, where does this UofL team go from here? My prediction: up. Just minutes before typing this very sentence, Lamar Jackson was officially named the starting QB for Saturday’s home opener against offensive juggernaut Houston. Personally, I love the decision to hand over the keys to the car to Jackson. His elusiveness and ability to make things happen make him a dangerous commodity under center. Nothing against Reggie Bonnafon, who despite being pulled after halftime, played a fairly solid game. His demise would be the inability to thrown the ball away when under attack and costing his team valuable yardage. Nonetheless, the team is clearly now Jackson’s to run with plenty of insurance policies to back him up. Both Will Gardner, who I idiotically picked to start against Auburn, and Kyle Bolin have big game experience. Gardner played terrific last year in helping the Cards destroy Miami in their first ever ACC conference game. Bolin, who became a legend after slaying in-state rival Kentucky last November is also at the ready. All that to say, I would still look for Bonnafon to get some snaps. The kid has shown that he can play (see Notre Dame) and I still think he can provide something of value to Petrino and his staff.

Speaking of value, the uber young group of wide receivers for the Cards immensely impressed me against Auburn. I was blown away at the way Jaylen Smith, Devonte Peete and Traveon Samuel played. Each made some very nice catches on Saturday. As a fan there is nothing more reassuring than watching true freshmen make big plays in a key game against top 10 competition. Once James Quick, who thankfully will not be out for the season following a severe high ankle sprain in the 4th quarter, gets back to full strength this receiving corps is going to hard to slow down. Guys like Javonte Bagley and Jamari Staples (out against Auburn due to injury) have not even cracked the stat sheet yet but will be expected to. Safe to say, the receiving position(s) is in very good hands (pun intended) for the foreseeable future.

Devonte Peete

Defensively, I came away very impressed with UofL’s game plan and strategy on Saturday. Josh Harvey-Clemons was terrific in the backfield recording two interceptions. Shaq Wiggins established himself early in the ball game with his air right man to man pressure at the corner position and was hardly thrown at after the first quarter. Sheldon Rankins, who I still predict to have a monster season, was quiet on the stat sheet Saturday but after watching the game a second time you could see that he drew numerous double teams and was cleary a primary focus of Auburn’s offensive line. My hope is that Devante Fields gets it going this weekend as he showed glimpses of being a total defensive nuisance late in the game on Saturday.

Josh Harvey Clemons

One last look at the Auburn game tells me two things…….

1. If UofL can somehow maintain the momentum it had late in Saturday’s game then they could be a force to reckon with the rest of the season.  I see two games that create a great challenge up front – Clemson and Florida State. However, the Cards are now familiar with both and their personnel.
2. If (there’s that word again) Louisville can play as well as they did on Saturday defensively, they will be in every game they play. Auburn’s 327 total yards from scrimmage on Saturday were the lowest in Gus Malzhan’s three year tenure as head coach for the Tigers. Not too shabby.

Up next for the Cards is Houston. The Cougars are coming off a 52-24 trouncing of Tennesse Tech. I don’t look for Houston to put that many points on the board again this weekend, not half that many in fact. I also look for the Cards to establish their running game with Brandon Radcliff, Jeremy Smith and LJ Scott early and often taking some pressure off Jackson. My hope is that the fan base will be in their seats early and will get loud. Home openers at PJCS in years passed have been terrific. I expect nothing different this year. Go Cards!

1,000th Blog Entry!

Hard to believe, but this is the Confidential’s 1,000th blog entry.  The ACC may not be perfect, but it is OUR conference.

Whether you are a Florida State fan that now knows just how possible it is for FSU to win national championships as an ACC football school… a fan of one of many ACC schools that sees the basketball season a disappointment if it is not a national championship… or a fan of one of the non-revenue sports, such as lacrosse or baseball… or just a proud alum… the ACC is our home. Well, at least until the imperialistic Big 10 carves us up and leaves us for dead… ha ha ha.

In any event, thank you to all the contributors and school correspondents over the years who added great content and promoted discussion/debate on ACC and broader issues.

A special thank you to M Caffrey who has been working on this blog with me, A Caffrey, since its inception.  He and I have many new ideas to eventually roll out while we continue to suffer as Syracuse fans and co-founders of this blog.

And a most special thank you to all the readers, followers, and commenters over the years.  While the Internet allows anyone to have a voice, it is nice to have our voices heard/appreciated and disagreed with/debated.  It is more fun to consider all sides of each issue that just our own.

Go ACC!  Go Confidential!

P.S.  If you are new to the Confidential, here are some of the most popular blog entries ever:

First Cardinal Landing Spot, the ATL

A hyped Bobby Petrino

Not that anyone is counting, but in less than 4 days (even less for the fans of other select teams) the long awaited 2015-16 college football season will begin. Selfishly I gear my focus on the Louisville Cardinals who will flock toward the south and descend upon the city of Atlanta to take on the preseason number two nationally ranked Auburn Tigers this Saturday. It seems like an utter eternity since I last flipped on a college football game, but the wait for its return is always worth it.  In this particular blog, the first since checking in periodically over the summer months, I’m going to give a few opinions and predictions regarding the Cards as well as the ACC conference. Near the conclusion, I will also give out a few other tidbits and share some thoughts regarding Louisville basketball.

First up for discussion, the 2015 Louisville Cardinal Football team. In my mind, there are 5 lingering questions that remain unanswered that will determine this team’s success or demise on the gridiron this season.

1. Will Brandon Radcliffe have a break out year and build off a strong end to the 2014 season?
2. Who will be UofL’s starting quarterback and will that guy be effective?
3. Will DeVonte Fields live up to the hype?
4. Is this the year that James Quick becomes a go to receiver?
5. Can the UofL defense stay healthy especially up front?

Most of those questions probably won’t be answered until, at the earliest, mid season. But I certainly like UofL’s chances of returning to another bowl game If the answer is “yes” to the majority that I have posed?  In short, I predict another solid year for the Cards. At this juncture, I am picking Will Gardner as the starting QB against Auburn. He appears to be healthy and has the size and arm strength to be effective against a stout SEC defense in the Tigers. I do also think, however, that we could see Reggie Bonnafon play a few series as well. He brings another dimension to the table in his ability to leave the pocket and use his legs to punish defenses (see Notre Dame).

Will Gardner

In regards to James Quick, I would like to see him finally get more balls thrown his way, in light of his move to the slot receiver position. I am confident that his speed and overall play-making abilities are an asset that could provide this year’s offense with a much needed boost in light of the departures of phenom DeVante Parker and Eli Rogers. One thing that does make me feel better is that even if Quick were to have only a modest year, there are some studs-in-the-making at the WR position just  to showcase their skills. By studs I am referring to guys like Javonte Bagley, Devante Peete and true freshmen Traveon Samuel and Emonee Spence. As for Brandon Radcliffe, I absolutely believe he will explode back onto the scene and have a monster year. With that said, I also look for LJ Scott to also do some damage and provide some high quality back up carries. Last but not least, my fingers are crossed that Devonte Fields, the one time Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year (as a freshman), does indeed fill the shoes of the departed Lorenzo Mauldin and anchors a defense, that despite losing multiple players to this past sunmer’s NFL Draft, that could wreak havoc on opposing offenses. I am giddy at the prospect of watching newcomers Josh Harvey-Clemons and Shaq Wiggins roam the UofL secondary

                                                                     Shaq Wiggins, Georgia transfer

I am equally as excited to watch Sheldon Rankins and the ACC’s top group of linebackers (Kelsey/Burgess/Brown/Fields) make multiple big play and attempt to slow down Auburn’s ground attack. The bottom line is that Bobby Petrino’s teams are almost always better in year two and I think that trend will hold true in 2015.  Oh, and since becoming a D-1 head coach it cannot be overlooked that Bobby Petrino is 19-1 in season openers……..not too shabby.

My season prediction sure to go wrong: 9-3 (not including bowl game)

Projected losses: Auburn, at FSU, at NC State

Key wins: Clemson, Houston, at UK (5 in a row)

Two of the losses I am predicting are still winnable games, especially at NC State. However, I look for tge Wolfpack to be much improved from last season and tough to beat on their home turf especially when you add the revenge factor from a stinging loss at PJCS last season.. As for Auburn, I am predicting a loss while maintaining a high level of optimism. Win the turnover battle, avoid special teams disasters and establish ball control via the running game and UofL absolutely CAN beat Auburn. The only thing really holding back UofL aside from it’s opponent on Saturday in my opinion are their new helmets…..not a fan. But, I’m not on the roster or a potential recruit so matters not.

Regarding the ACC Conference as a whole, I have had limited time to completely comb over each and every roster. Thus, a good rendering of my pre-season research can be summed as such…….

With that said, here is my pre-season top 10 ACC team rankings

1. Florida State
2. Georgia Tech
3. Clemson
4. Louisville
5. VA Tech
6. NC State
7. PITT
8. Boston College
9. Miami
10. Duke

Rankings aside, It’s shortly time to go to work and put the hype behind us. Only one things matters going forward – winning games and making my annual season ticket purchase worth my investment.

Moving on now to the Louisville Basketball team that recently spent a week playing the Junior and National Puerto Rican basketball squads down south. The games were rugged and rough but sure to have given this young crop of Cards plenty of valuable real-world playing experience. I’m not a columnist so I’ll save any detailed overview analysis other than to say a few words about each of the players on this year’s roster based on what I watched via the web (and Periscope one game via Kenny Klein)

Trey Lewis: tough, mature kid with good handles. Streaky shooter that can heat up and not afraid to dig in on defense

Dion Lee: offensive juggernaut and good shooter; can get to the rim and will be counted to score in bunches

Quentin Snider: steady as usual, great ball handling and decision making; still needs to shoot it better

Mangok Mathiang; bulkier and more confident yet still struggles to make 2-4 footers; needs to cut back on fouls

Ray Spaulding: showed the highest ceiling of anyone in Puerto Rico; great athlete with awesome natural instincts

Chinanu Onuaku: lighter and more active; I actually like the underhanded FT style; was solid defensively

David Levitch: people like to rib about his PT, but kid does understand how to play; has to get stronger with the ball

Deng Adel; natural scorer; long and quick; loved how he can consistently make 10-15 footers; future stud

Jaylen Johnson: still looks a step slow but yet productive on the glass and around the bucket on offense

Ryan McMahon: two years away, but will be a knock down perimeter threat; must gain 15-20 lbs to bang in the ACC

Donovan Mitchell: great athlete but must really improve on ball handling and passing; love his upside

Anas Mahmoud: very frustrating to watch – talent is there but intensity still is not; hoping it’s matter of time

Matz Stockman: showed marked improvement on offense; still a step slow on defense; must work on gathering in paint

As in years passed, predicting what Louisville Basketball will produce is about as easy as becoming the Executive Director of NASA. However, I do like what I saw down in Puerto Rico and for once I whole heartedly agree with Rick Pitino on something – these kids appear to be phenomenal teammates……supportive, team oriented, and focused on getting better. As always, a tough early non conference schedule followed by a brutal slate in the ACC will both challenge this squad to the point of being battle tested and ready for play in March. And anything can happen in March. Last year’s UofL team came within one possession of losing to a Georgia Tech team that only mustered up two league wins the entire season to being one made free throw away from going to it’s 11th Final Four a few months later. Coaching matters, player development matters, and most of all keeping one’s eye on the prize matters. It should be another fun ride starting in November

Here’s to hoping that Coach Petrino & Co get off to a 1-0 start after departing from Atlanta. I’ll be watching from afar unlike the 30,000+ Card fans who are making the trip. Safe travels everyone, drink responsibly and War Damn Cardinal!

The 2015 Confidential Preseason ACC Football Poll

Source: The 2015 Confidential Preseason ACC Football Poll

Free (with prizes) College Fantasy Football Options for ACC Fans!

If you prefer a survivor-league, we have this:

We are limiting this to the first 100 entrants.  Winner gets $50.00.  See the official rules here:

http://www.officefootballpool.com/pools.cfm?poolid=115035&p=2&pwd=n%2Arbaa

Pool ID Number: 115035
Pool Entry Code: n*rbaa

 

If you prefer an individual-player fantasy football league, see this page: https://atlanticcoastconfidential.com/2015/08/13/acc-fantasy-football-contest-2015/

Games start in just over a week!